Obama's Clinton Bounce in Denver

No, we're not done talking about her.

Sen. Hillary Clinton's official moment in Denver is over. Her Tuesday night unity performance drew rapturous applause from Democratic delegates and supportive analysis from the punditocracy. The most consequential Clinton question, however, is whether any of it matters.

Howard Wolfson, a former strategist for her campaign, thinks Obama may get a bounce among women in polls next week. He told me that Clinton essentially hit every key point for Obama in her speech, so skeptical female voters may move in his direction. (Following the convention's interdependent spirit, we were talking at a Tuesday night party hosted by his consulting firm, the Glover Park Group, and Politico, where I write a column.) If those voters are driven by policy, Clinton's references to health care, foreign policy and pay parity will surely help. Yet for voters who doubt Obama on more personal terms -- his experience and "character" -- Clinton's argument was much thinner.

Slate's John Dickerson flags the "hole":

[T]here was one big flaw in the pitch: Clinton never made the case that Barack Obama was ready to lead as commander in chief. That was her strongest argument against Obama during the primary -- so strong the McCain campaign is recycling her ad about the president answering the phone at 3 a.m.

Clinton did reject the McCain ad in her remarks to the NY delegation on Monday, to be fair. But her convention speech definitely fell short on detailing a personal case for Obama as the right person for the job. That's the core issue for the remaining voters -- from skeptical women who normally vote Democratic to undecided independents. After all, if policy preferences settled the presidential race, the Democratic nominee would hold a huge lead, given public opinion on the war, economy and the incumbent administration.

Forget the fact-free cynicism about how conventions are irrelevant. Convention speeches are actually one of the only avenues for the parties to directly reach millions of voters with an extended argument -- without the media filter or commercial soundbites. Over 20 million tuned in to hear the Democrats on Monday night alone. There's no Nielsen data on the viewers' voter preferences, of course, but it's a good bet that Clinton's Tuesday speech drew more undecideds and Obama-doubters than the average convention programming. So while her heartfelt address was still a net gain for Obama, it offered little to those voters who don't like him, or don't think he's ready.

Now some pols hope Bill Clinton will take up that task on Wednesday night. His official letter to delegates in the DNC program barely mentions the O-word, however, and he famously deferred to the Constitution's formal requirements when asked to vouch for Obama's presidential qualifications.

In the end, the bobbing blue "UNITY" signs still fill the Pepsi Center, and most of the delegates I've seen are more united than cable news coverage would suggest. Clinton's speech should help the cause, and now it's up to the people actually on the ticket, Obama and Biden, to fill the hole that she left. It's not enough to show voters that they agree with Obama on most major issues. People want to know they can trust him. They want to feel, to borrow a tacky campaign slogan that came up short, that he's ready to lead on day one.

---

On a break from campaigning in Montana, Barack Obama watches Hillary Clinton at the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday.

Comments (28)

1. Well, in fairness to the ol' gal, it was a tough row for her PERSONALLY to hoe...

   her ego (massive as her Hubby's, nearly as massive as atleast ONE of her cultists here) had to take some serious deflating.

   She HAD to come off (real or not) as whole-heartedly supportive of Obama, and likely did. So, just because she didn't address EVERY issue is to be forgiven.

   Plus, Obama has to earn some of that for himself...and it's true, lately he's been a little lax on pushing the "CIC button" while McCain uses "commander" and "commanders" (a la "on the ground") all the time.

   But to see your Presidential dreams go down in flames, likely forever (2012, if Obama loses, she'll be 'inevitable' again but shown to be 'mortal' and not completely popular among all DEMOCRATS...Obama wins, 2016 she'll be too old!) ...has got to be tough.

   Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 2:35pm

2. Nickerson is not the guy to go to when it comes to this subject (or any other). He already made up his mind that Clinton would not help Obama, and whatever speech she gave would have given him the same conclusion. Clinton did all she should have last night to get her supporters to throw their support (or at the least their vote) behind Barrack. Her more crazed supporters would not have listened to reason, and certainly were also going to get whatever they wanted out of her words, regardless of what they were. It was a great speech, relatively speaking. Whatever Democrats do not want to vote for Barrack at this point are ignorant, and will not be swayed from their delusions. Their arguements are pointless and selfish.

   Posted by davefoley0 at 08/27/2008 @ 2:56pm

3. I'm not sure why people are questioning whether or not he is ready to lead. That's rather silly in my opinion. George W. Bush was Governer of Texas and his father was President and Vice President and Mr. George W. has been arguably the worst President that this country has ever seen.

   Hilary was the wife of President Bill Clinton and has been serving on the U.S. Senate, but, that doesn't necessarily prove readiness to lead. I think everyone of them have a long ways to go in order to do what is necessary for CHANGE in this country.

   If Obama is smart, and he is ... he will surround himself with a team of individuals that will help him to be completely effective. This is why I feel he chose Biden as a running mate.

   Interdependent team work will be what will help commit people to change. Personally, I don't want a President who possesses a self-imposed confidence to feel that they can lead 300 million people. That's not the goal.

   It's a cooperative effort ... all else is ineffective.

   Posted by Brannu at 08/27/2008 @ 3:06pm

4. More and more it looks as if we've won the war in Iraq, thereby giving the United States a crucial victory in the struggle against Islamic radicalism, and it is clear we wouldn't have if the most important war protester in Denver this week had had his way.

   That protester is not one of the street shouters waving a banner and thinking he has thereby made a profound, world-changing statement, but Barack Obama, who rode his opposition to the war to primary and caucus wins and finally to his moment of selection as the Democrats' presidential nominee. . . .

   Put Obama's timetable in place and take away the surge he did not want, and we could now be facing a deteriorating situation with deep, dark tragedies lying in wait: A quick return to a dictatorial, vicious, anti-American regime, genocide, an al Qaeda resurgence and the increased likelihood of terrorist strikes within the United States.

   It would have been another Vietnam, only worse. Of course, some people -- including a lot of Obama's friends, apparently -- think the right side won in Vietnam.

   Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 3:24pm

5. Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 3:24pm

   So, again we "won the war" (past tense)...

   but we "can't withdraw or we WILL lose" (future tense)?

   Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 3:32pm

6. Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 3:32pm

   "but we "can't withdraw or we WILL lose" (future tense)?"

   MASK, I think that DNC talking points are so firmly ensconced in your brain that you're incapable of thinking. Surely you've had it explained to you that although the terrorists have been routed from most of Iraq, the central government there is not yet strong enough to take over security functions, but that in any case, major withdrawals are under consideration at this moment and will more than likely be executed within the next 12 months. I only waste my ink saying this on the off-chance that you still have reserved a few non-programmed brain cells.

   Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 3:42pm

7. But yes Ponti....let's wholesale ignore the fact that the terrorists wouldn't even BE in Iraq if we hadn't started a pre-emptive lie-based war.

   THen too, how many YEARS does it take for a government to stand up? Geez Louise...

   Posted by leftofcenter at 08/27/2008 @ 3:59pm

8. "but that in any case, major withdrawals are under consideration at this moment and will more than likely be executed within the next 12 months."-----Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 3:42pm

   So what's wrong with the Obama Plan being enacted??!?!?!??

   Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 4:02pm

9. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/27/2008 @ 4:03pm

   HAPP, are you actually PRACTICING "dis-respecting the authority" of a potential US President?!??!?!

   Do you WANT you kids to grow up to be suicide bombers if they move to another culture?!??!?!?!?

   Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 4:05pm

10. Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 4:02pm

    "So what's wrong with the Obama Plan being enacted??!?!?!??"

    Well, leaving aside that pursuant to my original post, the 'Obama Plan' would not even be in play if Obama's judgment had been followed to this point - a responsible withdrawal is EXACTLY what is under way. And it has absolutely nothing to do with Obama.

    Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 4:25pm

11. Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 4:25pm

    So, RIGHT NOW, you have no problem with a 16 month withdrawal plan beginning January 2009?

    aka "the Obama Plan"?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 4:37pm

12. Maybe it's a worthy point, maybe not but, Ari, I wouldn't EVER use John Dickerson to validate ANY point. Nepotism and following the pack define that guy - he's awful

    Posted by Steve1us at 08/27/2008 @ 4:41pm

13. Michelle Obama's speech may do more in the way of bringing Hillary die hards to Obama than Sen. Clinton's. The addition of Joe 'The Shark' Biden to the Obama ticket also has sent a message; and corporate America hears it loud and clear. They have their guy and he will be doing their bidding; just as he did when he supported that rotten bankruptcy law. This does not serve the people; only the corporate masters who run our country. We are, and have been for years, a Democratic-Republic in name only. I'm glad I'm not young anymore.

    Posted by darkladyofala at 08/27/2008 @ 4:54pm

14. "Well, leaving aside that pursuant to my original post, the 'Obama Plan' would not even be in play if Obama's judgment had been followed to this point" Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 4:25pm --- You mean we wouldn't even be there, right?

    "I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

    I am not opposed to all wars. I'm opposed to dumb wars. So for those of us who seek a more just and secure world for our children, let us send a clear message to the president." -Obama's 2002 speech against the war

    Posted by FLaim at 08/27/2008 @ 5:02pm

15. Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 4:37pm

    "So, RIGHT NOW, you have no problem with a 16 month withdrawal plan beginning January 2009? aka "the Obama Plan"?"

    Provided it was responsible - which we have no reasonable expectation that Obama would be. After all, he's been pretty much 100 percent wrong so far. And I'd prefer you'd call it the 'Mr Magoo Plan'. It sounds better, and Mr. Magoo has as much to do with it as Obama does.

    Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 5:03pm

16. Posted by Zero at 08/27/2008 @ 3:38pm

    "i really cannot wait for this idiotic melodrama to finally come to an end. someone drop the curtain -"

    Posted by darkladyofala at 08/27/2008 @ 4:54pm

    "The addition of Joe 'The Shark' Biden to the Obama ticket also has sent a message; and corporate America hears it loud and clear. They have their guy and he will be doing their bidding; just as he did when he supported that rotten bankruptcy law. This does not serve the people; only the corporate masters who run our country."

    I can't see why they don't hold one convention instead of two. I mean the two parties are a unity anyway with everbody on the same page so why not just end the charade, hold one convention and nominate two pairs of candidates, the losing pair and their congressional counterparts agreeing in advance to function as a kind of sponge intended to absorb the content of public outrage and to offer the illusion of opposition. That way, the lobbies could economize on their quadrennial shopping expeditions with no one being the wiser. And when it came time for the "debates", no one would have to maintain the fiction that the candidates represent different points of view. They could just serve ice-cream, smile at one another as usual, and prove to the American people since we've been getting along anyway, we really can get along after all.

    Progressives need to vote for Nader.

    Posted by john lowell at 08/27/2008 @ 5:58pm

17. Iraq, thereby giving the United States a crucial victory in the struggle against Islamic radicalism

    by planti

    saddam, the "islamo"?!?!?!?!?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/27/2008 @ 6:00pm

18. the 'Obama Plan' would not even be in play if Obama's judgment had been followed to this point

    Posted by pontificus at 08/27/2008 @ 4:25pm

    and 4,500 americans wouldn't be dead.

    oh, and did i mention the debt?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/27/2008 @ 6:02pm

19. and if you care,

    453,672 dead iraqis

    and 1,325,358 refugees........

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/27/2008 @ 6:05pm

20. well,

    at least the marshes are making a comeback......

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/27/2008 @ 6:06pm

21. All funny people every last one of you. So much political posturing. So many games being played. It's like watching a circus.

    "Here comes the lion,Happy the Lion, to make a negative comment about any Democrat he can."

    "Here comes Frankgrits the Monkey to sling poop."

    "There's Mask the bear to roar his roar."

    "And here are the acrobats, they come and go whenever certain events happen."

    And the circus continues.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/27/2008 @ 7:17pm

22. He should worship the ground that she walks on.---Posted by frankgrits at 08/27/2008 @ 7:04pm

    FRANK could teach him!

    LOL

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 7:49pm

23. BTW, FRANK...

    how many terminal cancers and quadraplegics do you think Bill's speech tonight will cure?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/27/2008 @ 7:53pm

24. Come on folks is there one person in America that really, really think that Bill and Hill want Barack to become President?

    Posted by namron8255 at 08/27/2008 @ 8:12pm

25. "More and more it looks as if we've won the war in Iraq, thereby giving the United States a crucial victory in the struggle against Islamic radicalism,"

    No it doesn't. Not only has Maliki's government not co-opted the Sunni leaders of the Awakening into his government. Shi'ite forces have started going after them.

    The same government's legislature had adjourned without legislation on the Kirkuk and provincial election issues.

    Posted by brunowe at 08/27/2008 @ 9:26pm

26. Hillary and Bill, please...PLEASE, stop being so egocentric. You've had your fun, go back home with a minimum of decency left.

    We The People don't agree with your idea of entitlement. Your wife ran, a really, REALLY ugly campaign, and lost. She then, no surprise, revealed to all that the campaign was about HER, not the American people she claimed to want to help, thus her soar loser attitude.

    Now, even at the convention, a lukewarm speech that left not one but, too many holes.

    The Clintons', The Bush's...no more!

    Posted by digit at 08/27/2008 @ 10:14pm

27. The same government's legislature had adjourned without legislation on the Kirkuk and provincial election issues.

    Posted by brunowe at 08/27/2008 @ 9:26pm

    how dare you bring up facts!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/27/2008 @ 10:57pm

28. Clown. Posted by frankgrits at 08/27/2008 @ 7:44pm

    I'd rather be a clown than a monkey throwing poop but whatever. I never said I wasn't apart of the circus. I post here therefore am apart of it.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/27/2008 @ 11:03pm