Clinton One Step Closer To Exit

Most reporters are bad at math, but I can still count. Hillary Clinton won by 214,000 votes in Pennsylvania and netted eight delegates, according to CNN. Barack Obama won North Carolina last night by 233,00 votes and picked up fourteen more pledged delegates than Clinton. Hillary's narrow win in Indiana--by 18,000 votes and two additional delegates--will not be enough to slow Obama's momentum or check his math.

Clinton will likely stay in the race until June 3, but the contest effectively ended last night. The question is not if Obama will be the Democratic nominee, but when.

The primary entered what I like to think of as a clarifying moment in the past few weeks. For months people said there were few legitimate differences between Obama and Clinton. Yet ever since Ohio, the wonky, centrist, empirically-minded Senator from New York transformed into a rough-and-tumble cultural populist: courting downscale whites almost exclusively, slamming Obama from the right on guns and Bill Ayers, siding with John McCain on the gas tax, scoffing at economists and threatening to obliterate Iran. Like the Republicans, she went after Obama's patriotism, "elitism" and former pastor, thus validating the right's attacks. "She may continue the campaign, but the harsh attacks are over," the Politico's Mike Allen predicted this morning. We'll see. As polls closed last night, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes--stealing yet another page from the GOP playbook--warned of an "October surprise" with Obama.

As Obama preached hope, the media kept controversy alive, devoting an obscene 42 percent of its political coverage to Jeremiah Wright last week. Perhaps as a result, late deciders broke for Clinton, as they did in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Yet Obama actually increased his numbers among white middle-class voters in North Carolina and white women in Indiana and benefitted from a record high turnout of African-American voters. On a conference call today, Clinton strategist Geoff Garin bragged about their victories among the "white electorate," as if to prove that Obama is--gasp, black, and thus "unelectable."

So what happens from here? Clinton can exit gracefully or she can exit shamefully. Obama will prevail in pledged delegates and, most likely, the popular vote--the two most important barometers for superdelegates. But I wouldn't expect this contest to suddenly become all neat and tidy. The Democratic primary is about to enter a remarkably undemocratic phase. The superdelegates, who under the party's absurd rules get to vote twice, will need to awaken from their slumber and stupor. The DNC will need to take control over Florida and Michigan, emphasizing that everyone initially agreed the elections were illegitimate, and that the only resolution must give equal weight to both sides--a 50/50 split of delegates in Michigan and Florida's delegates counting for half, as they did under the Republican primary, for example.

But these are technical details. After last night, the big picture has been resolved.

Comments (51)

1. When, when have Billary, the Pardon Sellers, ever been graceful? Expect bullying, bribery & more of the same gutter slime tactics from now at least until June ... unless the SuperDs put a stop to the destruction of their party's '08 potential.

   Posted by sloper at 05/07/2008 @ 12:13pm

2. And the beat goes on.

   Posted by ACook at 05/07/2008 @ 12:30pm

3. on topic...

   what sloper said...

   off topic...

   1. continued great work, ari (and ari). a big sigh of relief despite continued need to have to listen to her and watch the dwindling pathos...

   2. i'm cool with change, but much like windows vista, this new online format for the nation is a trainwreck - and i'm not just talking obout my petty egotistic desire to see my scribblins in e-print, but the overall package. the blog response pits here are sucky to be sure, but i guess i could adjust and settle just fine if...

   it were possible to navigate about the site in a reasonable time frame.

   i have midgrade dsl and generally it takes 2-8 seconds, max, for a non graphics heavy page to become readable - perhaps up to 15 seconds MAX for a heavy graphics laden page...

   but i swear it feels like the worst of dial up days when one attempts to navigate through the nation these days in the new and "improved" format. seriously, even on the best of days it takes MUCH longer than the old format. i can hit a button to go to a different page, then go to the latrine and liesurely strain and grunt out a huge load of impacted feces, properly wipe and wash, and return just in time to see it change or inform me there is some problem.

   usually i have to hit refresh in mid change, or after waiting 30+ seconds re-hit the origional button and MAYBE possibly eventually get the page i was looking for.

   i LOVE this mag, so don't take my criticism too personally, but honestly its nearly impossible to read...ok - let me copy this, hit the button, and go take a crap while waiting for it to respond...

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 12:40pm

4. That's because the front page has EVERYTHING on it. It's a cluster which bogs down your connection and is problem eating up their servers to host.

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/07/2008 @ 1:04pm

5. As polls closed last night, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes--stealing yet another page from the GOP playbook--warned of an "October surprise" with Obama.

   ~~~~~~~~~~

   i'm more worried about an october surpise with iran.

   (or syria -- that's cheaper)

   Wednesday, May 7, 2008 1:24:32 PM

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 1:20pm

6. I agree: love the mag--hate the site.

   Posted by stefinmc at 05/07/2008 @ 1:25pm

7. I agree: love the mag--hate the site--way too slow.

   Posted by stefinmc at 05/07/2008 @ 1:26pm

8. I agree: love the mag--hate the site--way too slow.

   Posted by stefinmc at 05/07/2008 @ 1:27pm

9. and my opinion is we will destroy the system we have of creating wealth, capital and independent individual ability to improve our selves

   posted @sometime recently by MR. MAASCH

   you mean the one that has the u.s dollar plummeting

   (oops! i meant oil prices rising -- yeah, that's it)

   and has the economy popping open every so often

   like so many balloons on the floor of the 5 year old's birthday party?

   BTW i hope you saw my clarification (you, too HAPPY) as to what i (usually) mean by "America". this means greater europe -- u.s., canada, and i suppose a few places to our south as well. that's what i meant about stealing native land. just like where i'm sitting now.

   Wednesday, May 7, 2008 1:31:24 PM

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 1:39pm

10. Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/7/2008 | ignore this person

    yeah - i thought the same thing, but even that is insufficient to explain the problem. i was considering renewing my subscription...and honestly in my case they can skip sending me the physical copy, save some trees and operating cost since all i want is to access the e-format, but...

    in the most literal sense the site is BARELY functional - in a practical sense it is non-functional and shows no sign of improvement - just the opposite, in fact. it gets slower and worser and slower and more worser every day...

    guess its time to "walk out of the room for a while, walk bac in backwards with eyes closed, then turn around real quick while opening my eyes and see if anything has changed...

    here goes the submit...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 1:43pm

11. trying opening the same thread in 7 different tabs.....

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 1:52pm

12. "So what happens from here? Clinton can exit gracefully or she can exit shamefully."

    Bets?

    Posted by Mask at 05/07/2008 @ 2:03pm

13. management has taken something that worked well, and ruined it. the perfect is the enemy of the good.

    Posted by emile duBois at 05/07/2008 @ 2:10pm

14. great quote, ED

    <i>Ainsi presque tout est imitation. L'idée des Lettres persanes est prise de celle de l'Espion turc. Le Boiardo a imité le Pulci, l'Arioste a imité le Boiardo. Les esprits les plus originaux empruntent les uns des autres.</i>

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 2:24pm

15. i want the "old" coke!

    this is coke zero!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 2:25pm

16. I can see the meeting...

    (Six months ago)

    Joan Connell--(opens up Power Point)- "Now, look, it will have this doohickey...and the ability to save tabs that this one blogger one time said we should do...and it'll have this whatchamacallit....and you can, if you have the proper browser, open up the text box from this microscopic one that is the Default, to a slightly bigger one...if you have the right software, which I'm sure most of the bloggers will have....or will have to download"

    K vanden Heuvel- "Cool, Joan. And how long will it take to implement and get running smoothly?"

    JC-- "Oh, a week at most...10 days tops...maybe two weeks....possibly three, but certainly nothing more than six months...uh, depending on the breaks!"

    KvH-- "Cool...let's do it and then I can brag to Arianna Huffington how much cooler OUR website is than hers at the next cocktail party!"

    Posted by Mask at 05/07/2008 @ 2:35pm

17. <i>a cakewalk......

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 3:52pm

18. "Cool...let's do it and then I can brag to Arianna Huffington how much cooler OUR website is than hers at the next cocktail party!"

    Posted by Mask at 05/7/2008

    lol - the huff's too sharp for that!

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 3:52pm

19. ibble,

    i'm clinging to the mouse in bitterness because your response was wittier than mine.

    and i thought this job* was a slamdunk!

    *hi, frank.

    3:56

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 3:58pm

20. Holy Crap!! Time warped to another thread!!

    Sulu! I need full shields!

    Scotty! Cut the warp engines!

    Sickbay! Bones! Get up here and fix this blister on my ass!!

    Damnit Jim! I'm a doctor, not a magician!

    BOOoooonnneess! Get up here or I'll send Mr. Spock down there and have him introduce you to the Vulcan DEATH GRIP!

    Sulu! Assemble a landing party! On the planet surface is our target, a Joan Connell. Set phasers to stun...no wait..to kill...no wait..to glow blue and then disappear! Yeah!

    I'm LOSIN it!

    Posted by Benchrest at 05/07/2008 @ 3:58pm

21. this is a test.....

    do not be alarmed....

    for the next 60 seconds.....

    repeat, this is a test....

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 4:01pm

22. Posted by Benchrest at 05/7/2008

    Screw those Original Series guys....we need somebody who knows what a micro-processor is and a touch screen, and doesn't use Lite-Brites glued to an old Magnavox chassis on the Desilu Studios....

    get me Chief O'Brian and B'elanna Torres!

    Posted by Mask at 05/07/2008 @ 4:02pm

23. Posted by Mask at 05/7/2008

    Oh yeah?! Spock could beat up Warf ANY day!

    Posted by Benchrest at 05/07/2008 @ 4:11pm

24. <i>Here is something you should all see coming if the Dems enact their economic policys and support those wonderful public unions...and the coming tax increases to cover more benefits ..

    "After nearly five hours, the Vallejo City Council voted unanimously late Tuesday night to file Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection.</i>

    Jomamma, let me explain how taxes work. When governmental entities need more money to cover their operations, they raise taxes. If they cut taxes, revenues fall. Hence if the municipal leaders of Valejo wanted to stave off bankruptcy, they could have raised taxes. Apparently, they considered bankruptcy preferable and have chosen accordingly. One might also specualte that tax revenues fell short, because of the recession that is the result of Republican economic policies. Just a thought for you to ponder in between Rush and Hannity shows.

    Posted by robgo2 at 05/07/2008 @ 4:13pm

25. The only OCTOBER SUPRISE I can think of is Vince Foster really was murdered as a Clinton defnesive move and Hillary really did know about Bill and Monica but "faked being surprised" for political reasons.

    And we still don't know who all those other donors are to the Clinton library. The one donor we know about, the Saudi oil dictators, gave $10,000,000 to the Clintons, and we all know they ain't interested in lower gas prices, alternative fuel, or energy independence from them.

    Posted by Metteyya at 05/07/2008 @ 4:44pm

26. site is much better now.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 5:09pm

27. it now takes 30 seconds just to get to The Nation. just total crap, Katrina.

    Posted by emile duBois at 05/07/2008 @ 5:45pm

28. well, apparantly if she cant win she seems happy to make sure NOBODY but flippy mac wins...

    a cancerous tumor on the party...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 6:06pm

29. http://www.thenation.com/blogs/action/ignore.mhtml?who=JOMAMMA

    rob is correct. you cannot repeal the laws of math and economics. you take less tax money in, you have less tax money. the big tax cutters have left huge deficits in their wake.

    you like to pretend that ALL the money of the tax cuts goes into investment creating jobs etc. but that is not the case.

    you just don't have a case, Maasch, and you're sounding evermore loony.

    Posted by emile duBois at 05/07/2008 @ 7:00pm

30. The Clintons are starting to become a bit of a joke as well as unecessary baggage to the Democratic party. Determination is laudable. However, determination in the face of impossibility only shows immaturity and stubborness.

    Posted by danconstan at 05/07/2008 @ 7:03pm

31. Hillary is starting to look like a little kid in the toy store screaming "mommy, but I want the presidency!!!!!!!"

    She needs to think about saving whatever is left of her career and Bill's so so legacy.

    Posted by danconstan at 05/07/2008 @ 7:06pm

32. Hillary LOSES Indiana 51-49!

    Here is the math:

    In Indiana, Hillary received 644,590 votes, and Obama received 630,395 votes. That is a difference of 14,195 votes.

    If you add up both of their vote totals, you get 1,274,985 total votes cast, and we know 10% of these votes were Republicans, or 127,985 votes.

    Hillary's share of the Republican vote was 54% or 68,849 votes. 41% of these Republicans that voted for "Hillary" indicated in exit polls that they would vote for John McCain in November as opposed to Hillary Clinton. That accounts for 28,228 voters, or 2.2% of all voters in the Indiana primary.

    If you subtract 2.2% (28,228 votes) from Hillary's total, she gets roughly 49% of the vote in Indiana, and Barack 51%. That is, Hillary's "new" total is 616,362 and Barack's total stays the same at 630,395.

    Posted by Metteyya at 05/07/2008 @ 7:41pm

33. The important thing now is for Obama to simply ignore Clinton and focus on McCain. This might speed her overdue departure.

    Posted by opeluboy at 05/07/2008 @ 7:46pm

34. Hillary will soldier on until all the states have voted. Then she can bow out with the explanation that she needed to give all the voters a chance to be counted. And maybe she will attempt to take credit for any deal that allows Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated. Thus Hillary Clinton becomes the Savior of Potentially Disenfranchised Voters.

    As for exiting with grace or shamefully, what makes you think either Bill or Hillary is capable of being shamed?

    Posted by Annie1987 at 05/07/2008 @ 9:25pm

35. get me Chief O'Brian and B'elanna Torres!

    Posted by Mask

    7 of 9.......

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 9:40pm

36. Posted by frosty zoom at 05/7/2008

    Sure...but what about the repairs?

    heheh

    Posted by Mask at 05/07/2008 @ 9:56pm

37. They could be.......overlooked.........

    Posted by Benchrest at 05/07/2008 @ 10:02pm

38. Posted by Benchrest at 05/7/2008 |

    Well, with Seven in the room, I'd damn sure be looking at something besides a plasma conduit read-out!

    Posted by Mask at 05/07/2008 @ 10:23pm

39. a plasma conduit read-out!

    Posted by Mask at 05/7/2008

    not to be continued.............

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 10:55pm

40. This is a first, right out of the box. Hillary will not accept a VP offer, nor will Obama offer it to her. Only politicians who are young enough to wait 8 years to again run for President. A VP is a road to nowhere. Governor of NewYork will give her no power outside of New York.

    I have just the post for her, and she wil be great at it. Vote out Sen Reid as Majority Leader of the Senate and elect Hillary in his place. As Majority Leader, she can work with Obama to ram through Congress all of the legislation that the middle class needs and demands. Universal Health Care; Restructure taxes in favor of the middle class; Get the troops out of Iraq as soon as possible; Legislation for the benefit of the Veterans; Education for the masses including reduced fees to attend college; Secure the borders; Legitimise immigration; re-establish our place in the world; and a clear energy policy that will be earth friendly and easy on the pocket book.

    I predicted last summer this deadlock in the Democratic Party and now I predict this move. What do you think?

    Martin S. Friedlander, Esq. www.freedompost.typepad.com

    Posted by msf31538 at 05/08/2008 @ 01:30am

41. I agree with Mr. Friedlander. Senator Clinton would reign more power as Senate Majority Leader than Reid. Senator Obama would not look as weak as president with Senator Clinton at the helm. The leaders in Congress whether Democrat or Republican really are the power, not the President. We saw this with the Republican dominated congress who rubber stamped everything for George Bush. We see how the weak democratic leadership is "whipped" day in and day out by the Republicans defining them over and over again. Good suggestion, if Obama gets the nomination. I'm still anticipating the other shoe to fall on this guy. Let's wait and see.

    Posted by books at 05/08/2008 @ 09:04am

42. So let's hear VP suggestions for the democratic nominee, Obama...

    It won't be Hillary. Obama doesn't need to give it to her, plus he can't trust her. I wouldn't be surprised if as VP she would do everything in her power to sabotage the national election and Obama's first term if he is elected, just so she can run again in 4 years! It's unfortunate to have to say that.

    Posted by danconstan at 05/08/2008 @ 10:43am

43. remember,

    9 out of 10 focus groups focused recommend a white woman for vp to their clients who chew gum.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/08/2008 @ 11:05am

44. <b><b><b><b><b><b><b><b><b><b><b><b> <i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i><i>

    OBAMA/SEBELIUS '08 -- KANSAS KONNECTION FOR AMERIKA

    </i></i></i></i></i></i></i></i></i></i></i> </b></b></b></b></b></b></b></b></b></b>

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/08/2008 @ 11:09am

45. so, who are you voting for, dorothy?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/08/2008 @ 11:10am

46. the cowardly lion

    or

    the tin man?

    heheh

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/08/2008 @ 11:13am

47. certainly no VP slot for Hill. Barry won't offer and Hill won't accept.

    Posted by emile duBois at 05/08/2008 @ 11:24am

48. what about Biden for VP? He has as much foreign policy experience as anyone in Congress.

    Posted by danconstan at 05/08/2008 @ 11:25am

49. He has as much foreign policy experience as anyone in Congress.

    Posted by danconstan

    egad!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/08/2008 @ 12:43pm

50. Ari,

    Thanks. Hillary's campaign strategy remains that of the DLC which goes back for me at least to the Gore 1988 primary campaign. Garin's response re-emphasizes the stereotypical racial demographics underlying that strategy.

    Ever since Nixon and the "silent majority" and the supposed "lessons" of McGovern's defeat in 1972 both parties have played into the supposed "white" backlash against affirmative action and economic and social equity going back to MLK.

    That it may not be working this time is a relief. Maybe the US is finally moving to inclusiveness based on acceptance of co-dependence and common interests, as has worked for industrial and service unions.

    Charlie M.

    Posted by cmsandia at 05/08/2008 @ 12:57pm

51. Posted by Mask at 05/7/2008

    If only you frequented the same sex clubs as her ex-husband...

    Posted by srjenkins at 05/08/2008 @ 7:23pm