Indiana, NC Exit Polls Reveal Deeply Divided Dems

There are no clear results yet from Indiana or North Carolina.

But there is some bad news for the Democrats.

Among those who told exit pollsters in both states that they had voted in the Democratic primary, half said they would not for Barack Obama if he is the party's nominee against John McCain this fall.

Among Clinton backers in Indiana:

* 48 percent say they would vote for Obama

* 33 percent say they would vote for Republican John McCain

* 17 percent say they would not vote

The numbers from Clinton supporters in North Carolina are even more unsettling:

* 48 percent say they would vote for Obama

* 38 percent say they would vote for McCain

* 12 percent say they would not vote.

Even if Obama does well tonight, he clearly has a November problem on his hands -- as it would be naive to imagine that the candidate's challenge ends at the borders of these two primary states. Obama may be able to deal with all this. In both Indiana and North Carolina, roughly half of voters said the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy is an important concern for them; that number could go down either with the passage of time or with the rise of other issues.

But the level of antipathy for the senator from Illinois -- and the apparent willingness of many Clinton vote to switch to McCain -- suggests that the Democratic Party is now deeply divided, and sorely in need of time to heal the wounds of a primary campaign that really has turned both ugly and dangerous.

Comments (20)

1. polls polls polls polls polls...

   and last thing i saw 53% will vote dem no matter who while 31% will vote repugnant...

   meaningless numbers considering the dems need neither state to win...

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 5:50pm

2. now, settle down folks......

   5:49

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 5:51pm

3. Cooler heads will prevail after the nominee is selected. I voted for Hillary in my state's primary, but will certainly vote for Barack once he wins the nomination.

   Everybody needs to settle down and take a deep breath.

   Posted by Desert Son at 05/06/2008 @ 5:56pm

4. Did they stop to think that maybe the reason it's 38% is because a good portion of those people are Republicans?

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 5:59pm

5. How can you possibly call yourselves journalists and not post the same stats for these questions for Obama supports where Clinton is the nominee?

   If the public is prepared to switch their vote because of the personality of someone's preacher, than they need desperately to be introduced to the Rev. Hagee, and perhaps start reading about Iraq, Iran, Halliburton, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that McBush wants to make permanent, etc etc etc

   Posted by selan at 05/06/2008 @ 6:02pm

6. I think the vast majority of democrats will do everything in their power to avoid McCant from ruining the country. I will vote for whichever democrat is on the ballot. I think all this tells us that the sooner this battle is over the better, so peoples emotions can heal and they start thinking rationally again. If rational thought is possible.

   Posted by Extraneous at 05/06/2008 @ 6:16pm

7. <Posted by selan at 05/6/2008>

   Ah, but selan, that is precisely the point. American voters don't read, don't think, don't research, don't learn, don't evaluate, don't evaluate.

   They do something so much better, refined, elevated, and etherealized:

   They emote.

   The emote when they vote. Yeah that's what I wrote.

   They go with their gut--and do you seriously have any idea of the stuff that's been going in THERE lately, thanks to the folks at McDonald's, Archer-Daniels, and Kraft? Not a pretty thing to contemplate.

   (Next they'll simply replace the ballot forms with that continuous roll that is available at the nearest public comfort station.)

   Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 6:37pm

8. This is just an overplayed line. A - somewhat surprising for The Nation - case of lazy journalism.

   In 2000 something like 40% of McCain primary supporters said they would not vote for Bush in the general election. If only...

   Posted by libraridan at 05/06/2008 @ 6:42pm

9. I know how to get MASK to come out of hiding:

   Psst--NADER.

   (There IS an alternative to Tweedledee & Tweedledum, after all.)

   Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 6:58pm

10. This is a case of the glass being half full or half empty.

    Nearly half of these Clinton voters, 48%, said they WOULD vote for Barack Obama.

    These two states have always gone with the Republicans in November, so Mr. Nichols you are grossly exagerrating the effect of voter sentiment in these two states.

    Why don't you ask the Clinton voters in the 30 other states that Obama won? If the numbers in these states don't match the two Republican states, then where is the deep divide?

    Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 6:59pm

11. But then, maybe everyone is okey-dokey with candidates fronted to us by the PR firm of Tweedledee, Tweedledum, and Fiddledeedo.

    Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 7:01pm

12. Here's where we are, from a man who knew a lot more about popular culture and the forces that drive it than most others I can name. (The writer, not the character by the way . . .

    "We'll tell you any shit you want to hear! We deal in illusion, man! None of it's true! But you people sit there -- all of you -- day after day, night after night, all ages, colors, creeds -- we're all you know. You're beginning to believe this illusion we're spinning here. You're beginning to think the tube is reality and your own lives are unreal. You do whatever the tube tells you. You dress like the tube, you eat like the tube, you raise your children like the tube, you think like the tube. This is mass madness, you maniacs! In God's name, you people are the real thing! We're the illusions!"

    Just substitute "Web" for "tube" and you're right in the middle of "2008--The Primary!"

    Duh-duh-duh! (Dramatic music out. Fade.)

    Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 7:12pm

13. Never underestimate America's ability to make bad decisions. After 8 years of Bush Co. there should be no doubt that America has an easily manipulated and cowed population. We buy into fear, we buy into so called "value issues" meanwhile the plight of the middle -- working -- and just getting by classes get worse. Our media is the envy of many a dictator, a brilliant tightrope of seeming to be "free" and the fourth estate and delving into the petty and the distracting. If you have not seen Network in awhile, do so and have some chills. If you have not read 1984 in awhile, do so.

    I hate the tinfoil hat sorts of stuff, it just does not suit me, but I will reiterate never underestimate the stupidity in America. It really does scare me sometimes. Why does it seem that our forbearers , who did not live in an instant information age, made at least more reasoned decisions? That's probably just me, but I do not believe that this country would elect a FDR or a Lincoln, but we sure as shit would elect another Coolidge if we were afraid enough.

    Posted by Tzimisce at 05/06/2008 @ 7:28pm

14. Posted by goyadad at 05/6/2008

    Oh, hell, goya....go for it.

    If Nader ties his 2004 vote total of 0.35% or gets close...I'd be surprised.

    He did his damage 8 years ago, and enough people don't want a repeat.

    Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 7:36pm

15. actually not looking so bad. NC is a landslide for obama and though looks like hilly has indiana they still havent called it - which may mean we are waiting for heavy obame precincts...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 8:03pm

16. oh - tightening up in indy...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 8:04pm

17. ". . . but I will reiterate never underestimate the stupidity in America." <Posted by Tzimisce at 05/6/2008>

    "No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people." This by a great philosopher and assiduous student of American public life. (Almost a prophet himself, though no match for . . . well, not polite to boast.)

    Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 8:07pm

18. Posted by Mask at 05/6/2008

    The real question is how is American Ninja going to do in this election? I know Shawn Nematbakhsh and I are going to be giving him our full support.

    http://www.verifiedvotingfoundation.org/article.php?id=807

    Who wants to vote for a senior citizen, women or a black man - when you can vote for a ninja?

    Problems in Iraq/Iran? He'll just go over there and "solve" the problems himself. Health care? Ninjas die on the job, shouldn't everyone else? It's the dream third party candidate.

    Posted by srjenkins at 05/06/2008 @ 8:19pm

19. Posted by srjenkins at 05/6/2008 |

    Always Ron Paul....heheh

    Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 9:12pm

20. (Next they'll simply replace the ballot forms with that continuous roll that is available at the nearest public comfort station.)

    Posted by goyadad

    ouch!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 10:27pm