Polls Suggest Tuesday May Settle Nothing

The last round of polling data for Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina suggests that the contests are incredibly volatile.

This means that the contests could produce surprises all around.

In Indiana, where Hillary Clinton is supposed to be ahead, a late poll by the Zogby group puts Barack Obama in front narrowly, 44 percent to 42 percent.

Three other surveys give the lead to Clinton. Insider Advantage puts the New York senator in front 48-44. Suffolk University has it Clinton 49 to Obama 43.

The only poll that predicts as easy win for the New Yorker is SurveyUSA's, which gives Clinton 54 percent to Obama's 42 percent.

The pattern suggests a Clinton win and the large number of undecideds in most of the surveys is good news for her.

Best bet: Indiana to Clinton, as expected.

In North Carolina, every survey has Obama winning.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has the widest margin for the Illinoisan: Obama 53 percent to Clinton 43 percent.

Zogby's got it Obama 48 percent to Clinton's 40 percent.

SurveyUSA favors Obama 50-45.

Insider Advantage predicts a close finish, with Obama at 48 percent to Clinton at 45 percent.

The pattern suggests an Obama win, but the margin does not look wide and the large number of undecideds has some Obama aides unsettled.

Best bet: North Carolina to Obama, narrowly but as expected.

Bottom line: If the states split, this is another bust of a primary day. As with Pennsylvania, it will settle nothing.

Comments (25)

1. ughhhh....vomit inducing news. hope yer wrong, nichols...

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/05/2008 @ 11:22pm

2. True, May 6 may settle nothing re: relative standing and clear front runner. But let's say things do remain about the same, one thing is still clear -- there will be fewer delegates available in just a few remaining contests by which Clinton can catch up.

   Posted by roselr at 05/06/2008 @ 01:12am

3. I have been staying away from the Nation recently, for two reasons.

   1. This horrible new web design. I am sure there are plenty of technical upgrades involved, but as far as aesthetics and ease of finding information this is a huge step backward.

   2. The coverage of the race. There would be some usefulness in continuing to point out that the race is essentially over barring Obama dropping out or Clinton getting away with cheating at the convention. There would be use in taking the MSM to task for promoting this thing to get ratings. But this race has been over for more than a month, since Ohio and Texas. She cannot beat Obama without the superdelegates breaking her way huge and Florida and Michigan counting. She just can't. Anyone who says different just hasn't seen, or hasn't understood, the arithmetic. Even Chris Matthews has admitted this is over. And when Chris Matthews is more in touch with reality than you are, you have hit bottom as a journalist.

   And that is where the Nation is right now, the bottom.

   My suggestion to everyone is 'go to alternet' and let the editors here complete their demolition of the proudest journal of the left alone.

   Posted by Poppolphil at 05/06/2008 @ 01:45am

4. Quite right, the new Nation web site design is a loser. And yep, the "race" is deceptive, it's all over unless Billary cheat. There is, however, nothing in their past & present behavior to suggest that they won't.

   Posted by sloper at 05/06/2008 @ 02:04am

5. Just one more "vote" against the new website design. It is a big step backward. As will Hillary be, or her endorsed alternate, John McCain.

   Posted by dmsteinman at 05/06/2008 @ 07:28am

6. I don't think even someone like Reagan, the gold standard of a conservative,

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   reagan was a jerk.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 07:57am

7. would love to call her President Rice someday!

   Posted by HAPPY3

   boot fetish?

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 07:59am

8. sniff the glove of liberty!

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 08:03am

9. But in fairness to Rice she is a just a moral trainwreck who is bad at her job.

   Posted by Poppolphil

   Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 08:05am

10. Posted by HAPPY3

    Reagan as the poster child conservative? You ARE talking about the same Reagan who spent (up unitl GWB) more than all other Presidents combined?

    http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=879

    funny definition of "Conservative"

    Posted by leftofcenter at 05/06/2008 @ 08:39am

11. Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008

    As I said on the other thread...

    H.H.T.O.T.D.....

    "HYSTERICAL Hillary Troll Of The Day" now.

    Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 09:05am

12. Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008

    Oh, I get it. If Hillary loses IN and NC....the HTOTD loses his/her job on the Campaign Staff!!!!

    No wonder he/she is so wacky today.

    heheh

    Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 09:20am

13. Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

    Let me guess...Zogby has McCain losing to either Hillary or Obama? And the Dems picking up huge wins in the fall?

    heheh

    Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 10:40am

14. I am done commenting on the election. It has gotten way out of control.

    But, I agree, the new web layout sucks.

    Posted by rasalula at 05/06/2008 @ 11:15am

15. Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008

    Maybe this is FRANK...and he's finally blown a gasket???

    heheh

    Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 12:23pm

16. Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/6/200

    Well the problem is Jom a real conservative with a conservative message wouldn't do well. The ONLY reason McCain is doing ok is because he is more center right or at least appears to be. If he was hard right he would lose for sure.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 12:36pm

17. Reagan was the best President since Lincoln.

    Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/6/2008

    That's a little much. How about Roosevelt? Or maybe one of the heads on Rushmore.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 12:42pm

18. Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/6/2008

    You mean like Huckabee for example?

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 1:09pm

19. I was salivating for you guys to run Huckabee. That guy was a wack job and half. He wouldn't have made it past go before he said something about blasting all the gays into the sun.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 1:15pm

20. Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

    does she really think repasting posts gains her anything but me tapping the ignore button?

    Posted by Extraneous at 05/06/2008 @ 1:52pm

21. IS there a website that tracks pollsters to see who ends up being closest?

    Posted by danconstan at 05/06/2008 @ 2:20pm

22. Posted by HAPPY3

    Happy, what happened to HAPPIES 0, 1 and 2. Did they get eaten by the Nation server during demolition, I mean redesign?

    "would love to call her President Rice someday!"

    Would LOVE to get Putin's take on the DOS dominatrix. Hey, Boris, how's her accent?

    Do we really need to go back to using quotation marks""""""""""""""?????

    Posted by jackwells at 05/06/2008 @ 5:26pm

23. Since website design seems to have beaten the primaries as the topic of choice on this thread (which really must be significant in a big way), let me add my two or three cents.

    Many have commented on the size of the "little box." On my computer, it is possible to increase the size of this box by clicking the lower right-hand corner and dragging it down and to the right (more or less the direction in which the Republicans are dragging this country). Try this and see if it works for you.

    Many have also commented on the inability of the new system to perform some kind of hypertextual trick that I never mastered in the old system. I don't know what to say about this. I've never felt the need to use "emoticons." Good old fashioned punctuation works just fine for me. It would be nice to be able to produce italic type, but the old system never allowed this, either. I've learned to make do with CAPITAL LETTERS and quotation marks.

    I like the new format just fine, though I dislike having to use my entire computer screen to view all of it, now that it is much wider than before. With the older format, I was able to see the entire webpage of THE NATION while leaving part of my computer desktop, or another window, exposed. This made it easier for me to transfer quotations from other webpages to this one. Now, what I usually do is use another application, called "Stickies" on my MacIntosh, as a cutting-and-pasting platform.

    Posted by JakobFabian at 05/06/2008 @ 6:43pm

24. Oops! Here are two more cents about the new web design.

    Since the web forums are actually very narrow, I can easily make room on my desktop while reading the comments. So maybe the criticism I made in my last posted comment doesn't carry much weight. (Or any at all.) On the other hand, it's not possible to widen the text of a web forum, either, which may not always be to everyone's liking.

    I definitely like the fact that now, the comments and the article being commented upon both appear on the same page. All you have to do to compare one to the other is scroll up and down. This is a big improvement over the previous system, in which the article and the comments appeared on different pages altogether.

    Posted by JakobFabian at 05/06/2008 @ 6:54pm

25. Now, what I usually do is use another application, called "Stickies" on my MacIntosh, as a cutting-and-pasting platform.

    Posted by JakobFabian

    try this:

    http://blitzclicksoft.com/products.php

    "savvy clipboard"

    Tuesday, May 6, 2008 10:35:28 PM

    oh, and for time stamps on your mac (plus many other nifty features) look for this:

    http://www.devon-technologies.com/products/freeware/services.html

    Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 10:32pm