Why Obama and Clinton Are Debating Voter Suppression

They aren't just fighting for delegates anymore. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are now battling at the boundaries of democracy, trading allegations of voter suppression from the Nevada fallout. Look closely, though, and much of this boils down to turnout.

Clinton now leads most of the centrist coalition that her husband built. That includes working class moderates, pro-trade centrists, liberal hawks, Latinos and most of the traditional Democratic-progressive establishment – an alliance that delivered two winning pluralities for Bill Clinton. Obama is trying to build a new, bigger coalition on the fly. His success depends on mobilizing largely untested voting blocs, such as people under 30, apolitical independents and cross-over Republicans -- those "Obamacans" -- while consolidating his base of affluent liberals and Blacks.

The first three contests suggest that either tack can work.

Clinton can (narrowly) win a traditional Democratic electorate, like New Hampshire and Nevada. She won 51 percent of Democrats in Nevada this weekend, compared to 39 percent for Obama, who relied on independents for the rest of his support. But Obama can triumph in a higher turnout universe, such as an Iowa Caucus flooded by new and young voters, who comprised a third of his backing there.

So based on the results so far, lower voter turnout portends a Clinton nomination. And lately, Clinton supporters have tried tactics to limit turnout. There was that last-minute lawsuit to restrict voter access in Nevada, which Bill Clinton staunchly defended. A court rejected the controversial ploy. In a conference call on Sunday, the Obama Campaign alleged that Clinton supporters suppressed participation in 200 incidents at Nevada Caucus sites on Saturday afternoon, in violation of party rules. The Clinton Campaign denied the charge and criticized the Obama campaign for peddling "false claims," and there were also reports of Obama backers pressuring voters in Nevada.

Modern Democratic presidential primaries do not usually devolve into allegations of voter suppression. And it's particularly rare for a former U.S. President to flatly defend a lawsuit designed to disenfranchise voters – a nasty tactic so baldly undemocratic that it is usually pushed solely by lawyers and surrogates, while the potential beneficiaries remain silent.

But at bottom, these disputes also reflect the campaigns' drastically different orientations. Clinton's winning formula is to unite the traditional Democratic electorate, assuming traditional turnout. Obama's path to victory is bolder but more improbable: Leading the party past pluralities to a new, post-partisan true majority. Maybe these suppression disputes will push voters to think about which course is more appealing, or more inspiring, or just more likely to work.

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UPDATE: At New York Magazine, John Heilemann has a discerning summary of the Nevada "ugliness." (h/t Dibgy.) And from our own comments, reader METTEYYA contends that the party establishment is missing a larger point about projected turnout in a general election, since Clinton could "motivate" more Republicans to vote against her, while failing to mobilize some Democrats:

"This is a formula for another Democratic defeat in November, and if it takes 3 defeats in a row (Gore, Kerry, Clinton) for the Democratic party to wake up and embrace change, then we have serious problems at the leadership level!"

Comments (39)

1. Why does a national Democratic candidate want to associate himself with Reagan-era myths &, by strong implication, the demonization of FDR & the New Deal? As the horse race moves into the big states, Obama seems to be calling out for exposure as yet another GOPer in Dem sheepskins, who's further strengthening the rightwing's hand in spite of the GOP's current disastrous performance in office. Not that HRC is any less inclined (citing Reagan & GHW Bush as among her favorite presidents -- did she really feel that badly about Bill's beating GHW Bush in '92?). Obama & HRC seem to be saying, regarding both domestic & foreign policy, that they'll both perform like Republicans, albeit without failures. Bigger states, bigger campaign noises, but no substantive changes ahead. What an encouraging prospect -- for The Owners.

   Posted by Lit at 01/21/2008 @ 06:07am

2. "And lately, Clinton supporters have tried tactics to limit turnout."

   Isn't that remarkable thing to read about a DEMOCRATIC candidate?

   Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 07:13am

3. "May the gods scramble their ..."---Posted by MARKCANYON 01/21/2008 @ 05:02am

   "gods"? I didn't realize neo-Nazis were polytheistic?

   Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 07:14am

4. BTW, check this out from "Nevada Women Give Hillary A Win"...

   "Well, Hillary should not hope too much for South Carolina because blacks are blacks and they would vote their skin only, whatever that be."----Posted by HELENDAO 01/20/2008 @ 10:24pm

   Between that and FRANKGRITS calling Obama a "mulatto", you've got people supporting Hillary that are using racial slurs, racial generalities, and suppressing the vote.

   Congratulations, Hillary!

   Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 07:24am

5. That includes working class moderates, pro-trade centrists, liberal hawks, Latinos and most of the traditional Democratic-progressive establishment – an alliance that delivered two winning pluralities for Bill Clinton.

   Don't forget Ross Perot. Is he running again? Might be the secret Clinton sauce.

   Posted by srjenkins at 01/21/2008 @ 10:39am

6. So based on the results so far, lower voter turnout portends a Clinton nomination. And lately, Clinton supporters have tried tactics to limit turnout.

   The key point the party establishment is missing is Hillary will motivate a RECORD "high" turnout of Republicans against her, and a RECORD "low" turnout of Democrats who know she is a continuation of the pro-war Bush/Cheney agenda.

   This is a formula for another Democratic defeat in November, and if it takes 3 defeats in a row (Gore, Kerry, Clinton) for the Democratic party to wake up and embrace change, then we have serious problems at the leadership level!

   Posted by Metteyya at 01/21/2008 @ 10:50am

7. MarkCanyon-You mean a fake like Bush2 who pretends to be a cowboy even though he's really an east coast elitist snob?

   Posted by i'm nobody at 01/21/2008 @ 11:21am

8. Modern Democratic presidential primaries do not usually devolve into allegations of voter suppression.

   yeah, but 50 foot queenie is a lot like her hubby...repugnant light. hopefully people will see this. if not, looks like more of the same ole same ole.

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 12:06pm

9. oops...italics attack.

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 12:06pm

10. Where's FrankGrits coming on to defend voter suppression because the only good tactic is the one that wins right? Even if it debases our whole voting system.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 01/21/2008 @ 12:15pm

11. Posted by CCCOMFO1 01/21/2008 @ 12:15pm | ignore this person

    i don't admit to understand the thought process. not really.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 12:27pm

12. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 12:27pm

    FRANK is....a "follower". That's about it. And he was "reverse psych'ed" into supporting Hillary by two factors-

    1. The Media which told him "She is it, she's the nominee, it's over" almost two years ago.

    2. He (FG) THINKS that Rush Limbaugh hates Hillary and Bill. And since he must love what Rush hates...he loves Hillary.

    What he CANNOT grasp is that Limbaugh is a huckster and is out for himself and HIS best interests and Rush would LOVE IT if the Clintons got back into office. His ratings, lagging under GOP Congress/Bush years of "playing defense", would likely regain their 90s glory and he could spend 4-8 years talking about how Hillary is a "socialist"...how Bill is schtupping interns on the side again...and "hinting" that Her Nibs had somebody killed.

    And as HRC sold out the "progressives", FRANK would defend her and point to Limbaugh and say "She's being smart and finding a Third Way. Look here, Rush hates the new bill...that means it MUST be good!"

    FRANK's probably a nice guy, and nobody can say he hasn't done his part (with a son who went to Iraq)...but he's easily manipulated (both positively and negatively) and his ADORATION of Hillary Clinton is proof.

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 12:37pm

13. Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 12:37pm

    i think he is also...

    a) of the generation that don't think a mulatto can win yet (not imputing anything racist, by the way)

    b) still skeered shitless of the almighty neocon repugnant steamroller...and sees 50 foot queenie as "the only hope".

    he sees the hillbillery mondo machine, thinks the old days were all wine and roses (and compared to the current regime, yeah - they were) but fails to see the ugly side.

    plus he thinks she's kinda accessibly hot, you know? like his wife's cute dear old friend...

    well, good for him. he is a good guy.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 12:43pm

14. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 12:43pm

    Those factors as well, but I seriously think 45 maybe as much as 60% of it is....Rush "says" he hate Hillary and Bill, and FRANK hates Limbaugh, therefore FRANK loves Hillary and Bill.

    Second most delusional thing FG is thinking...first most is that Hillary as President is going to resurrect the Fairness Doctrine and shut Limbaugh down...she'd do that at her peril and would get atleast HALF the LIBERAL talk show hosts against her.

    But...FRANK being FRANK, he lives in this little "Clinton Dream World" where they are "Jack" and "Jackie" (with thick ankles) and it's this titanic battle of Good vs. Evil with them on one side and Oxy-limbaugh on the other and FRANK is one of her Jedi Knights!

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 12:54pm

15. Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 12:54pm

    is he a southerner? seems to be possessed of a certain form of chivalry too...

    he should not listen to el rushbo. that guy is a wash-up. almost as inconsequential as pat robertson. times have changed and except for a hard core of know nuthin right wing political retards el rushbo is no longer a factor in anything.

    yeah, time for frank to stop listening to that silly ninny. not even worth it in terms of "peering into the abyss" of the mind of the tardo-dark side anymore. actually kinda misleading these days in that aspect. marginalised in the way goldwater was after 64...or pat robertson after some of his absurd ramblings.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 1:06pm

16. he should not listen to el rushbo. that guy is a wash-up. almost as inconsequential as pat robertson.----Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 1:06pm

    Exactly, but again evidence of the "follower" mentality of FRANK. He BELIEVES what Rush says...even the parts where Rush lays claim to being a "leader of the Right" or having all his vast influence.

    Therefore FG sees him as the Devil Incarnate and a "powerhouse" that Hillary and Bill are righteousl fighting against, because Limbaugh talks about them so much. (FG fails to note how LITTLE the Clintons seem worried about Rush?!?!?)

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 1:33pm

17. Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 1:33pm | ignore this person

    well back in 00 or 96...sure, rushbo a factor. but chimpy mcmushmouth and his og neocon gangstas have screwed the pooch with schmuk nation. frank needs to get with the times. people are sick of that stupid crap. rushbo's a joke, and i aint saying that out of spite or gloating glee.

    i'd hate to agree with your "frank's a follower" deal and have him check in and read it though. he's a nice guy and i respect him. i get the feeling he's the type who bitches out loud at the radio and likes getting all revved up listening to the bloated drug addled blowhard vomit forth his tired worn out rightwing political spew...

    i used to from time to time. but that was when he was relevant. now he's just the political tard mouthpiece on the right.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 1:44pm

18. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 1:44pm

    mark levin is the true truther!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 1:51pm

19. i used to from time to time. but that was when he was relevant. now he's just the political tard mouthpiece on the right.

    Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 1:44pm

    its kinda like wrastlin'. its so absurd i still get sucked into it every once in a blue moon...for like, 45 seconds...then the stpidity trumps the ghoulish absurdity and i'm done.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 1:51pm

20. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 1:51pm

    political jerry springer..............

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 1:54pm

21. Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 01/21/2008 @ 1:54pm | ignore this person

    at least i take a perfeshunul interest in springer. diagnosis - low iq, multiple personality, mood, and substance abuse disorders...

    oh wait...maybe i SHOULD listen to more contard radio!

    i like the plug on that website for coulter's book about dems being so stupid...

    stupid like this? [tinyurl.com]

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 2:00pm

22. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 2:00pm

    i love that headline,

    "How can 59,017,382 people be so DUMB?"

    indeed, how?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 2:07pm

23. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 1:44pm

    It's an odd bit of psychology...not sure what the term would be. FRANK takes what Limbaugh says at its superficial level...JUST LIKE the ditto-heads do, and can't seem to grasp the fact that HE's been played, just as Limbaugh plays his fan base.

    Hillary gets elected, Rush stays on the air for another half-dozen years or more and gets a BOOST in his contract like he hasn't seen since he went national.

    And yet FRANK thinks that "Hillary getting elected is Limbaugh's worst nightmare"...meanwhile Her Nibs gets sworn in, and Rush is laughing all the way to the bank!

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 2:10pm

24. meanwhile Her Nibs gets sworn in, and Rush is laughing all the way to the bank!

    Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 2:10pm

    all the way to the "doctor's" office.........

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 2:12pm

25. Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 2:10pm | ignore this

    yeah...actually a 50 foot queenie presidency would be the best thing for old rash lungblow's career.

    maybe with frank its like the orwellian 5 minute hate...a purging experience. turn on contard radio, get all revved up about what dillhole spouts out, rant back unheard, and gloat satisfied that his pin up girl is gonna be our next dark queen...beautiful and terrible and all will love her!

    except for the king of all radio contards - til his ratings spike enough to keep him on air for another 4 - 8...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 2:21pm

26. Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 01/21/2008 @ 2:07pm | ignore this person

    you know...any shred of doubt i might have entertained in terms of my superior political acumen and judgement vis-a-vis contardo nation just flew out the window when i saw that website. which is probably dangerous and slightly not right...

    but at least i never have to listen to contard radio again and don't feel guilty at all for thinking "blabber on you contard dumbass" whenever i hear one shooting off his/her contard piehole these days. i either just smile and nod or point out how low the average iq of red states are compared to blue states.

    freedom...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 2:27pm

27. i love that headline,

    "How can 59,017,382 people be so DUMB?"

    Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 01/21/2008 @ 2:07pm

    On break, but I'll make it quick.

    Those 59M folks voted the way they wanted. Calling them dumb or any other names is not going to change things.

    BTW, did you catch my attempt at Spanish on the other thread? I'm trying to learn for our trip to Spain in October (25th anniversary present from hubby)

    Gotta run...patient coming out from surgery from a bad fall. Poor woman broke her hip in two places.

    Posted by ACook at 01/21/2008 @ 2:47pm

28. Posted by ACOOK 01/21/2008 @ 2:47pm |

    i cant say anything mean or insulting to you.

    pero ud. vive en un estado azul, entonces al menos tienes un cerebro funcional. como esta su hijo en el ejercito? ojala que bien.

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 2:59pm

29. Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 01/21/2008 @ 2:12pm

    That too!

    maybe with frank its like the orwellian 5 minute hate...----Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 2:21pm

    You think Hillary "O'Brian" got FRANK to tell them to put the rats on Julia?

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 3:26pm

30. Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 3:26pm

    yeah! frank's a kindly bolshevik at heart...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 3:34pm

31. yeah! frank's a kindly bolshevik at heart...

    Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 3:34pm

    He's going to be a hoot here at "TN" if Akasha becomes President. Ms vanden Heuvel and the boys will be tearing HRC a new one every week over some "sell-out" and poor GRITS will have to try to defend her against the editor and writers at his favorite blog!

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 4:16pm

32. Posted by ACOOK 01/21/2008 @ 2:47pm

    hablaste muy bien.

    saludos,

    fz.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 4:31pm

33. He's going to be a hoot here at "TN" if Akasha becomes President. Ms vanden Heuvel and the boys will be tearing HRC a new one every week over some "sell-out" and poor GRITS will have to try to defend her against the editor and writers at his favorite blog!

    Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 4:16pm

    ya, but he may change his id to "LVHILLBILLY NATION".

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 4:33pm

34. yeah! frank's a kindly bolshevik at heart...

    Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 3:34pm

    yep.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 4:33pm

35. Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 01/21/2008 @ 4:33pm

    No, but it'll be a lot of this...

    "You guys don't understand. Hillary KNOWS she can't get 100% of the loaf, she's GOT to try for 50%" (when it'll really be 25% or no bread at all) "Ms vanden Heuval/Mr Nichols/Mr Rothberg/Mr Berman need slow down, take a deep breath, and wait! She'll prove herself to you."

    (Note: notice how many times Hillary advises "taking a deep breath" in remarks she's made over the years. The woman thinks anybody who disagrees with her is an asthmatic!...heheh)

    Posted by Mask at 01/21/2008 @ 4:50pm

36. (Note: notice how many times Hillary advises "taking a deep breath" in remarks she's made over the years. The woman thinks anybody who disagrees with her is an asthmatic!...heheh)

    Posted by MASK 01/21/2008 @ 4:50pm

    yeah, and if she's president*, even more of us will be.

    *relatively speaking, that is.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/21/2008 @ 5:16pm

37. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 01/21/2008 @ 2:59pm

    Hey IBB, my son is doing well, thank you for asking. I spoke to him on Sunday and he's hoping to get into the OCS. He couldn't go into details because his time was limited, but I'll keep you posted when I know more.

    Posted by ACook at 01/21/2008 @ 7:08pm

38. Posted by ACOOK 01/21/2008 @ 7:08pm

    ocs, eh? good. ;)

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/21/2008 @ 7:39pm

39. FROM 'HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT WEBSITE' - PRESS RELEASE 12/12/07

    "...She must break recent tradition, cast cronyism aside and fill her cabinet with the best people, not only the best Democrats, but the best Republicans as well.. We're confident she will do that. Her list of favorite presidents - Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Lincoln, both Roosevelts, Truman, George H.W. Bush and Reagan - demonstrates how she thinks..."

    http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=4674

    GO OBAMA!

    YES WE CAN

    Anne

    Posted by annevilla at 01/21/2008 @ 7:58pm