Mark Penn Starts Spinning a Clinton Loss in Nevada

Clinton Campaign strategist Mark Penn has begun spinning Hillary Clinton's potential loss in this weekend's Nevada Caucus, contending that an Obama victory would be essentially illegitimate. In an unusual memo sent to reporters on Friday evening, Penn bemoans Obama's local labor support and emphasizes that two recent polls show Clinton ahead, so the "easy explanation" for an Obama victory would be his union support. This analysis of Obama's (potentially) winning coalition is presented as some sort of indictment, picking up on Bill Clinton's complaints that local party rules allow wide participation in the caucus.

Yet even given Penn's stormy history with labor and the low "standards" of campaign spin, this attack is particularly desperate. Democratic candidates are supposed to win over labor voters. In fact, if Obama -- or any candidate -- wins Nevada on the strength of union voters, it would validate his appeals to the huge labor electorate on Super Tuesday. Meanwhile, Nevada's tiny caucus universe cannot be reliably surveyed, (as I've explained before), so these polls are unlikely to reflect Saturday's turnout. Of course, Mark Penn knows that. "Turnout is uncertain since the last election saw only 9,000 voters come out," he notes in the memo. And that's exactly why he's already spinning a loss, even as he emphasizes that Clinton is "ahead 9 points."

Most political reporters erred by treating the New Hampshire primary as a story about polls, not people. Mark Penn is betting they'll repeat the same mistake when interpreting the Nevada results.

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Photo Credit: Flickr Creepysleepy

Comments (11)

1. Why not just wait and see the results? If Obama wins, it is because Clinton failed to make the case to union voters that she will represent their interests in the White House. Period.

   Posted by Metteyya at 01/18/2008 @ 8:41pm

2. Could be a ploy....play down expectations, so that it becomes another "Comeback Gal" moment.

   And of course if she loses, they try "Obama cheated and had a bunch of illegal immigrant dishwashers voting for him in the Mirage and Luxor!"

   Posted by Mask at 01/18/2008 @ 8:44pm

3. "...any vote that may lead to war should be hard -- but I cast it with conviction."

   -- Hillary Clinton, October 10th, 2002

   "That's what I'm opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics."

   -- Barack Obama, October 2, 2002

   Posted by HarpoMarxist at 01/18/2008 @ 8:51pm

4. Pathetic. Double standard thy personification is the Clinton Campaign.

   Posted by FritztheCat at 01/18/2008 @ 8:58pm

5. I used to think Bill Clinton was a pretty decent guy. The more I get to know him, and his wife, the less I like either of them. They are becoming more obnoxious by the day.

   Posted by bfairbanks at 01/18/2008 @ 9:45pm

6. MELBER: ...Penn bemoans Obama's local labor support...

   Interesting analysis!

   I have to wonder, there are ?almost? no women in Nevada! That must explain why Obama hasn't bemoaned HRC's women support....her loopy Sisters-of-Tear margin of victory in NH!

   Posted by Happy at 01/18/2008 @ 9:50pm

7. Please Democrats--I employ you---end the Clinton nightmare----send Billary home---no more of this crap---aren't you tired of it? Endless political manuvering--the endless parsing of words ("it depends on what your definition of is is").The country needs a airing of ideas and vision between two candidates who put the country first and not their political career. We would do well to have an Obama---McCain match up. Nominating Clinton would split the country to the worst degree since the Civil War. Obama or McCain might actually get something done.

   Posted by Len Mosse at 01/18/2008 @ 10:53pm

8. Obama or McCain might actually get something done.

   Posted by LEN MOSSE 01/18/2008 @ 10:53pm

   Well spoken....even as most of us Conservatives (on this blog) are to the RIGHT of McCain and most of the Libs are to the left of Obama!!!

   Posted by Happy at 01/18/2008 @ 11:44pm

9. Since when do teachers work on Saturdays? They had a whole year to plan their own caucases, no? These are people who get paid to submit study plans ahead of time and have some time off in summers. I'm at a great loss understanding their conflict other than being sour grapes because Obama got the support they weren't couting on. OOPS! Life is full of surprises. I'm glad a judge saw through it.

   Posted by buzzwaffle at 01/19/2008 @ 01:04am

10. The problem is, as respected labor leader and Clinton supporter Dolores Huerta says in Nichols' article,that the culinary workers union are pressuring workers to vote for Obama. Another article by Marc Cooper on Huffington Post even quotes an Obama canvasser as telling workers they should vote for Obama when they want to vote for Clinton or Edwards. Many of these workers are recent immigrants (I don't know if those have citizenship) but it seems a situation ripe for intimidation if the caucus is in the workplace. Caucuses can be intimidating enough. I don't know enough about it, but I've heard enough to be disturbed.

    Posted by lynninsf at 01/19/2008 @ 02:18am

11. since when did union chiefs not 'pressure' members to vote for their best interests?

    What else are unions for?

    QED

    Posted by Magnocephalus at 01/19/2008 @ 11:29am