Clinton, Obama Dead Heats With Edwards Working Iowa Hard

DUBUQUE, IOWA -- It was, by any measure of media coverage, Barack Obama's weekend.

Campaign events -- and they were "events" -- in Iowa on Saturday and in South Carolina and New Hampshire on Sunday proved Oprah Winfrey's pulling power as a backer of the Illinois senators. The South Carolina rally, which drew an estimated 30,000 cheering fans of the television star and the candidate, was the largest so far for this presidential race. And the pictures of Oprah with Obamas on the front pages of the Monday papers were worth their weight in soundbites and 30-second commercials.

But, behind the headlines was another story: Obama needs the boost.

Solid poll numbers from three new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon surveys of likely caucus goers and primary voters have New York Senator Hillary Clinton leading in all three states.

The numbers go like this:

Iowa: Clinton 27 percent, Obama 25 percent, Edwards 21 percent, with everyone else under 10 percent (though Richardson at 9 is showing some strength). That's a dead heat, but certainly not the clear evidence of the Obama surge that some of last week's polls seemed to suggest was coming.

New Hampshire: Clinton 30 percent, Obama's 27 percent, Edwards 10 percent, with roughly 20 percent of voters still undecided. That's a Clinton-Obama dead heat, with Edwards in very bad shape. The question now is whether an Oprah appearance pulls a few of the remaining Edwards backers over to Obama.

South Carolina: Clinton 28 percent, Obama's 25 percent, Edwards 18 percent. That's not quite a three-way statistical tie, but close.

If the Oprah visits changed anything, we will not see the measure of it until late in the week. That's when polls that went into the field tonight will yield results reflective of the Oprah factor. For Obama, who has yet to establish a clear lead anywhere, this is a critical moment.

If the Illinois senator is ahead in all three states by week's end -- a possibility -- he could be on his way to a clear two-way race with Clinton. If Obama does not surge, Clinton may have weathered the publicity storm and Edwards might still be in the game -- especially in Iowa. The former North Carolina senator needs to do something to boost those New Hampshire numbers, however. If Edwards falls short of a win in Iowa and then tanks in New Hampshire, it will be difficult to renew his run.

Edwards knows his circumstance. He'll be working the hardest this week. The 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee will be all over Iowa with a bus tour. He even has some star power of his own: actors Kevin Bacon and Tim Robbins -- not exactly Oprah, but solid progressives who know the issues and who are willing to spend a lot more time campaigning for their candidate in Iowa's small cities and towns than was Obama's quick-hit celebrity campaigner.

Comments (28)

1. Jingle polls, jingle polls, jingle all the way,...

   Oh what fun, it is to watch, a 3-Horse Open Sleiiiiiigh.....

   To I-O-Wa, to New-HAMP-SHIRE and then to SOUTH-CARO-LINA....

   Hehehehe......Gotta Run!

   Posted by Happy at 12/10/2007 @ 11:59am

2. If Hillary loses all three (Iowa, NH, and SC) as expected, her "inevitability" nonsense gets exposed for what it is. And if Edwards finishes third in all three as expected, he will certainly drop out with the lack of fundraising ability, and will probably endorse Obama, putting Obama over the top for good.

   Posted by Metteyya at 12/10/2007 @ 12:34pm

3. Those numbers are just "too close for comfort" for the Hillary's people (Again, note CCORBELL's shift from "nice young inexperienced man" to "danger to the Democratic Party and our nation" on Obama in a matter of weeks).

   She'll HAVE TO win New Hampshire and South Carolina. METTEYA's right, she can't afford to lose 3 in a row and try to keep "inevitability".

   Same true for Obama though...he places 2nd in 3 in a row...and he's through.

   Edwards?...loses Iowa and comes in 3rd in New Hampshire...he's dead.

   Posted by Mask at 12/10/2007 @ 12:46pm

4. OUTLAW ELECTION POLLING!

   let each person decided for themselves,

   because after all,

   people's like pigeons.

   they all like to fly together with no real direction.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 12/10/2007 @ 1:15pm

5. Seems to me that the earlier Edwards conceeds, and endorses Obama, the better chance that the early states will lean toward the Illinois senator.

   Obviously, the two are closer in their promotions than either are to Hillary. Would either Edwards or Obama consider the VP slot behind Clinton? Not likely. Would Edwards consider #2 to Obama? Hmmm...

   -T

   Posted by Hajji at 12/10/2007 @ 1:31pm

6. Hmmm...I guess I should read the comments before posting one, MASK, sorry....

   -T

   Posted by Hajji at 12/10/2007 @ 1:36pm

7. METTEYYA

   Posted by Hajji at 12/10/2007 @ 1:37pm

8. Would Edwards consider #2 to Obama? Hmmm...Posted by HAJJI 12/10/2007 @ 1:31pm

   There's no game of ego like running for President of the United States...even Kucinich can't escape SOME sense of "I am the one to save the country".

   NO WAY IN HELL that John Edwards accepts ANOTHER Veep spot...it would be totally embarassing. "Always a bridesmaid, never a bride" would be his campaign slogan. To be relegated after 4 years of hard work (and fund-raising) to THE SAME SLOT he had in 2004....the shame would kill any normal politician.

   Posted by Mask at 12/10/2007 @ 2:06pm

9. To add on to Frosty Zoom and Jomamma, it doesn't help that we have a news media system that is owned by for-profit corporations. When you have a 24-hour circus show of a news network, it's a lot less expensive to have a couple talking heads go over the "latest polls" than it is to have journalists on the ground, or to create an in-depth investigation into any one of the issues. It is indicative that PBS in the US and the BBC in the UK (both government-subsidized and without a profit motive) are far superior in terms of journalistic quality. They rely far less on mere speculation like election polling.

   Posted by DMBBALL at 12/10/2007 @ 2:11pm

10. Posted by HAJJI 12/10/2007 @ 1:37pm

    I agree with Mask. I don't think Edwards would want another VP spot.

    I do think he would accept a World Bank appointment or similar appointment where he can build on his anti-poverty work.

    Posted by Metteyya at 12/10/2007 @ 2:28pm

11. Posted by JOMAMMA 12/10/2007 @ 2:40pm

    where's the link?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 12/10/2007 @ 2:44pm

12. Posted by ZERO 12/10/2007 @ 2:49pm

    Exactly why I'm losing interest. Your justifiable cynicism has rubbed off.

    Posted by MATTMAN at 12/10/2007 @ 3:21pm

13. Can anyone say "Whore-ocracy?" I knew you could!

    Government of the highest bidder, for the highest bidder, and by the highest bidder.

    And that crosses party lines - the only two candidates who don't appear to be corporate whores are Paul and Kucinich, and we know what kind of a chance they have!

    Posted by Turk33 at 12/10/2007 @ 3:29pm

14. Posted by TURK33 12/10/2007 @ 3:29pm |

    Well, atleast Paul has raised a ton of cash (individual donors too!)....if money talks, Ron will talk louder than Dennis.

    Posted by Mask at 12/10/2007 @ 3:39pm

15. I think if Oprah wanted to make a difference she should put anything written by Noam Chomsky on her book club, and promote his ideas. Chomsky, to me, is one of the smartest guys out there, and largely ignored by the media.

    Posted by MATTMAN at 12/10/2007 @ 3:42pm

16. Posted by METTEYYA 12/10/2007 @ 12:34pm

    If Obama wins two of the three, and Edwards can't make the cut, I'd look for Obama to put his hand out for to Edwards for VP. The ever-eloquent, and intellectual Obama takes the NE and Left Coast, Edwards does passably well in the South and we've got a good team for the next 8 years (and a POTUS that can actually speak real English words!)

    Posted by leftofcenter at 12/10/2007 @ 3:43pm

17. Posted by LEFTOFCENTER 12/10/2007 @ 3:43pm

    As noted on another thread (and for about the 15th time on different blogs)....Edwards CANNOT accept Veep under Obama.

    Ego, LOC, ego. Even John Edwards has one. And the embarassment of being Veep...again...and showing NOTHING for his work since 2004 except...

    to be right back where he was in 2004, would shame the most ambitious politician.

    Ain't happening. Edwards doesn't get the nomination...he might get an ambassadorship or possibly a Secretary slot, but that's it.

    Posted by Mask at 12/10/2007 @ 4:13pm

18. The clear winner are the elitist, plutocratic, and oligarchic special interests and high-flying operators that run the country.

    Posted by ZERO 12/10/2007 @ 2:49pm

    that run the world....................

    Posted by frosty zoom at 12/10/2007 @ 5:29pm

19. Can anyone say "Whore-ocracy?" I knew you could!

    Posted by TURK33 12/10/2007 @ 3:29pm

    let's shorten that to:

    'hoacracy

    ripe for the pimpin'

    Posted by frosty zoom at 12/10/2007 @ 5:32pm

20. that run the world....................

    Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 12/10/2007 @ 5:29pm

    Hegemony...again, the world should listen to Chomsky.

    Posted by MATTMAN at 12/10/2007 @ 5:37pm

21. Posted by MATTMAN 12/10/2007 @ 3:42pm

    Because people that watch Oprah, are going to read Chomsky? Don't think so. She could have Chomsky on like she had Dr. Phil and the only thing that would happen would her ratings would tumble and the network would pull a Donahue on her.

    Posted by srjenkins at 12/10/2007 @ 7:17pm

22. Oprah's Book Club selection of their "Anna Karenina" in 2004, while earning snipes from academics for the stiff literalness of their many Russian translations..." ______________

    Admitted, it ain't "Hegemony or Survival", but it DID hit #1!

    -T

    Posted by Hajji at 12/10/2007 @ 7:35pm

23. Posted by HAJJI 12/10/2007 @ 7:35pm

    How's your ?son/step-son? Sparky.....

    Pardon if my memory mis-connected!

    Posted by Happy at 12/10/2007 @ 8:38pm

24. ...Frank not with stranding...

    Posted by JOMAMMA 12/10/2007 @ 12:57pm

    Imagine FRANKG getting a bit sweaty,....gotta hand it to him, knew just when to bail! LOL! Bet for him, rooting for an early-on favorite was ball-licking fun.....

    Hey, FRANKG, I hope you're still reading...or posting under another handle....hmmmm, maybe one of the newbies here touting `experience' and `electability'?

    Posted by Happy at 12/10/2007 @ 8:46pm

25. Posted by SRJENKINS 12/10/2007 @ 7:17pm

    maybe we can get chomsky to put on a thong.

    i bet they'd put him on tyra banks, at the very least.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 12/11/2007 @ 12:18am

26. 'hoacracy

    ripe for the pimpin'

    Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 12/10/2007 @ 5:32pm

    Be careful with that stuff FZ. One of our Santas just got defrocked for saying Ho,Ho,Ho to the wrong lady.

    Posted by lrjones4 at 12/11/2007 @ 05:52am

27. Posted by LRJONES4 12/11/2007 @ 05:52am

    oh, i would never say that to anyBODY, even if it were true.

    i'm talking politics, and our, your, and their (gringos) systems are all 'hoacracies.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 12/11/2007 @ 10:07am

28. Posted by LRJONES4 12/11/2007 @ 05:52am

    Forgot what thread you mentioned Hotcopper....

    I signed up and in honor of your spirited presence here, used your name (sans 4) for my Password....takes 5 fricking days?!

    Posted by Happy at 12/11/2007 @ 1:01pm