Obama Leads in Worthless Poll

People are buzzing about Barack Obama supposedly surging among Iowa Democrats. A Newsweek poll has Obama besting Clinton by four points and Edwards by six, but like most early polls, this is pretty worthless.

First, the poll asks people who they would back if the January caucus were held today - a huge if. The more accurate query is whether Iowans are backing a candidate yet. Large pluralities continue to say they're undecided, according to campaign sources, which is the norm for the Iowa Caucus.

Second, it's very hard to accurately poll the small, unpredictable "universe" of caucus attendees. This poll has a high margin of error at plus or minus seven points, (explained here), and it purports to identify "likely" caucus attendees by asking if they plan to caucus. But this is not like planning to vote. It takes over an hour to attend the caucus -- smack in the middle of Iowa winter -- so schedules and weather make turnout much more unpredictable than regular voting.

Third, no Iowa poll incorporates the defining feature of the Iowa Caucus: The required "viability" minimum of 15% that candidates must reach to have any votes count in a precinct. On caucus night, Iowans first gather into groups for their preferred candidate, and then any groups falling short of 15% must change to support a viable candidate. The final caucus tally refers to those second round totals. That means victory can depend on the second-place preferences of Iowans backing "second-tier" candidates. Field operatives get this dynamic. While the media chases worthless national polls and sloppy slices of state electorates, veteran strategists like Michael Whouley are tracking Iowans' second-place preferences. (Whouley is famous in Democratic circles for his field work for Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry, but he's likely to become a household name soon, thanks to Denis Leary's portrayal in HBO's forthcoming movie about the Florida recount.)

Finally, it is just too early to deduce anything meaningful from national or state polls. This time last cycle, Wesley Clark led national polls, as the Article 19 blog notes, while Democrats and pundits debated who were the "top three" in Iowa. There was the seemingly inevitable frontrunner, and that populist with deep roots in the state, and the new yet inexperienced candidate who wanted to bring America together. Sound familiar?

Now Hillary has Dean's frontrunner spot, Obama is the old Edwards, and the new Edwards is doing the Gephardt thing. The top three of 2004 had one thing in common: high poll numbers and losing campaigns.

Comments (18)

1. worthless!?

   Worthless!?!?

   WORTHless!?!?!?

   WORTHLESSS!?!?!?!?

   WWWWWWOOOOOOORRRRRTTTHHHLLLLLLEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!????????

   HOW DARE YOU, MR MELBER.?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!??

   THE O-TRAIN SHALL TRIUMPH!!!!!!!!!!!

   THE FIFTIE FOOTIE QUEENIE WILL FALL!!!

   BARRY-O SHALL SLAY THE MIGHTY GOLIATHA!!!!!!

   MR. MELBER, YOU ARE TOAST!!!

   Posted by IBLEBLBLEBLBBLELBBELIBBLE 09/30/2007 @ 10:06pm

   Posted by frosty zoom at 10/01/2007 @ 08:03am

2. Wanna talk caucus? Seems the American Taliban don't like all repubs, even Tough Guy Mr. 9/11 Guliani:

   September 30, 2007, 2:38 pm Christian Conservatives Consider Third-Party Effort By David D. Kirkpatrick Alarmed at the chance that the Republican party might pick Rudolph Giuliani as its presidential nominee despite his support for abortion rights, a coalition of influential Christian conservatives is threatening to back a third-party candidate in an attempt to stop him.

   The group making the threat, which came together Saturday in Salt Lake City during a break-away gathering during a meeting of the secretive Council for National Policy, includes Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family, who is perhaps the most influential of the group, as well as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, the direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie and dozens of other politically-oriented conservative Christians, participants said. Almost everyone present expressed support for a written resolution that "if the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate we will consider running a third party candidate."

   So, now I want Guliani to do good in FLorida?

   Posted by crabwalk at 10/01/2007 @ 08:04am

3. And why id the CNP so darn secretive? I thought they were about democracy, even if it means sending 1 million troops around the world to make it happen.

   Just not for them, I guess.

   The Mullahs speak, the sheep will follow.

   Posted by crabwalk at 10/01/2007 @ 08:07am

4. By this time next year Obama will be on the lecture circut and back in the Senate...what his Presidental run will have accomplished is to guarentee himself a permament seat in the Senate...not a bad gig should he try for another run at the Big House in the future, only to have a fall back job waiting for him should he never attain the keys.

   Posted by john maasch at 10/01/2007 @ 08:07am

5. Crab,

   The Christians group you qute are like the left wingers(you guys) on the left...no where else to go, however, they respond differently, ask George Bush the 1st,...You far lefties all say you do not want Hillary, but you will vote for her anyway..where as the Christians who really want a far right agenda and end up with a Rudy, will in fact stay home.

   Posted by john maasch at 10/01/2007 @ 08:11am

6. And, like the leftys in the Dem party, the CNP types are indeed a fringe..the Repub party wil never run to their positon to garner votes and push the entire Repub party to the right..that is not where the country is and they know it, but the Dems are running far left and are being pulled that way..if they stay there they will lose, since the US is not far left either, so...the Dems will slide right in order to get elected, with the knowledge of experience, that the lefies do not have another Nader, and if they did, the leftys would not go there again, costing ALGORE the election...they will vote Hillary with their hands holding their nose.

   Posted by john maasch at 10/01/2007 @ 08:16am

7. January and even the nomination are going to come so fast, it'll make your head spin. (Ask HSUB and his January 07 prediction of impeachment the end of THIS month).

   If She-Who-Must-Be-Obeyed wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, it'll be "inevitable" by the time the accelerated Florida and Calinfornia ones come, it won't matter.

   If things get INTERESTING and Obama or Edwards win one of the First Three...we might have a fight.

   Otherwise, it could be "over" by Martin Luther King Day!

   Posted by Mask at 10/01/2007 @ 09:02am

8. Posted by JOHN MAASCH 10/01/2007 @ 08:11am

   well, i guess bush is so bad that they would vote for a penguin at this point, just for the relief.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 10/01/2007 @ 09:16am

9. but the Dems are running far left

   Posted by JOHN MAASCH 10/01/2007 @ 08:16am

   wow. you've been taking in a little too much of that home-brew, JM.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 10/01/2007 @ 09:17am

10. i am wondering if HAPPY may be right about a hush hush slant here at the nation to gigantra...

    not disputing the truth of mr. melber's assertion...indeed it is quite early...

    but just last week nichols comes on with an "abandon all hope ye who don't worship the she behemoth" and now this assertion that amid all the annointing of her majesty, the first indication that someone other than her majesty might knock her off...

    IS WORTHLESS?

    worthless? without any value at all?

    ABANDON ALL HOPE YE WHO OPPOSE THE HILLERY TSUNAMI! ANY INDICATION THAT SHE IS NOT PREDESTINED TO TAKE EVERYTHING IS WORTHLESS!

    but when she leads in the polls, mr. nichols morosely bemoans "abandon all hope ye who oppose the self annointed she behemoth!"

    fine. keep it up. it actually serves to drive folks away from her majesty. after 7 years of people feeling disconnected and abandoned by a polity and press thats out of touch with them, the endorsement of anything resembling the establishment (which the nation, despite its claims, resembles more every day) actually drives people away and into the camps of the non-predestined/annointed...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 10/01/2007 @ 09:57am

11. LOL

    when gigantra leads in "the polls" its all over! when a crack in the colossus appears...its "worthless"...

    wow...sounds hopeless...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 10/01/2007 @ 10:35am

12. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 10/01/2007 @ 10:35am

    morning dude.

    don't despair. get out there an' put some more coal in the o-train's locomotive!

    BTW LRJONES has an "interesting" message for you, here:

    http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat/allcomments?pid=237751&rpg=11#pid 238716

    *ERRORS

    A word or url was too long, and has been broken up.*

    pg 11 of the "congress quietly" thread

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/01/2007 @ 10:44am

13. Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 10/01/2007 @ 09:57am

    Cheer up, IBBLE! Even as TN shows its "Worthless" hands (to real progressives)......the MSM, that's the NYT and WaPo, are having some doubts about Queenie (or is this week, "gigantra"?)! They now sound almost like ZERO!

    Posted by Happy at 10/01/2007 @ 11:26am

14. Posted by HAPPY 10/01/2007 @ 11:26am |

    i, like you, am HAPPY!

    and seriously questioning the (unconventional) wisdom of TN in terms of political prognostication.

    barry o managed to appear dignified, presidential, and gracious...on tyra banks...lol...

    unshakable. personable, cool as a cucumber...

    worthless? indeed...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 10/01/2007 @ 11:51am

15. "First, the poll asks people who they would back if the January caucus were held today - a huge if. The more accurate query is whether Iowans are backing a candidate yet. Large pluralities continue to say they're undecided, according to campaign sources, which is the norm for the Iowa Caucus."

    Haven't all the candidates been in Iowa for ten months or so? Shaking hands, standing in living rooms? Airing advertisements, taking out newspaper ads? Having a cup of joe at the diner, all folksy-like? Doing all the campaigning that people in late primary states or non-swing states are being denied? While issuing antipoverty plans and health plans and getting union endorsements and attending umpteen debates?

    But still large pluralities of Iowans can't be bothered to come to a decision yet? Kucinich or Edwards, gee, they just can't figure it out?

    If they're planning to wait til the day and follow their gut, they should tell the candidates so up front. Save everybody a lot of bother.

    Posted by RLawrence at 10/01/2007 @ 12:27pm

16. the CNP types are indeed a fringe..the Repub party wil never run to their positon to garner votes and push the entire Repub party to the right..that is not where the country is and they know it-maasch

    Buwahahahaha. What a crock! In case you missed it, the republicans owe their entire national structure to the american Taliban and anti-gay legislation. The repubs would be nowhere without the rightwing zealots, and Rove knows this better than you. Chimpy NEVER would have gotten out of Texas were it not for the fundies you discount so readily.

    Jeez, talk about being disconnected...

    Posted by crabwalk at 10/01/2007 @ 5:08pm

17. Yes, IBBLE, I AM HAPPY indeed.......Hope some of you bought stocks when they went on across-the-board SALE back in mid-August! This IS the `Poll' that counts....Belief It or Not, we are ALL in this one!

    Dow in record run

    Wall Street starts off fourth quarter with a bang, sending the blue-chip leader to all-time closing and intraday highs.

    By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

    October 1 2007: 5:05 PM EDT

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow closing at an all-time high on bets that the big banks are starting to put the worst behind them - and on hopes that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates.

    The Dow Jones industrial average (Charts) added nearly 192 points to end at an all-time high of 14,087.55. Earlier in the session, the Dow had hit 14,115.27, a new record intraday high. The previous intraday high was 14,021.95 from July 19.

    The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite (Charts) gained 1.5 percent and carved out a new 2007 record, closing at its highest point since Feb. 2001.

    The broader S&P 500 (Charts) index climbed 1.3 percent. The Russell 2000 (Charts) small-cap index jumped 2.4 percent....

    Posted by Happy at 10/01/2007 @ 5:12pm

18. ...being disconnected...

    Posted by CRABWALK 10/01/2007 @ 5:08pm

    I don't know the reason you became "disconnected" from the Wolverines....but I hope they beat Wisconsin....As a Longhorn, I will always fondly recall playing (& beating) UM in Rose Bowl `05 and wish them well in the Big-10....besides, I do NOT like Ohio St.!

    Posted by Happy at 10/01/2007 @ 5:16pm