McCain Collapses Into the Margin of Error

Arizona Senator John McCain will be skipping Saturday's Iowa GOP Straw Poll event in Ames.

And wisely so.

The exceptionally unscientific straw poll has been arranged to provide an early -- if anything but precise -- reading of the enthusiasm in the first caucus state for the various contenders for the 2008 GOP nomination.

For all the straw poll's flaws, and they are many, the event does offer a baseline indication of who is in the running and who is not. To compete, candidates must be able to motivate enough supporters to travel to the university town for a Saturday of political theater and then cast an obligatory vote for the man of their dreams -- or, perhaps, of their least horrifying nightmares.

McCain can't motivate his supporters to take these necessary steps. Why? Because barely anyone in Iowa is supporting him.

Despite a major effort in the state that has seen the Arizona senator make repeated trips to Des Moines, Davenport, Dubuque and dozens of smaller town, the one-time frontrunner for the GOP nod is surfing at 3.2 percent in the new University of Iowa survey of likely caucus goers.

That's down from 21 percent in March, when the university last polled.

How bad is McCain's position? He's got significantly less support than the University of Iowa survey's margin of error.

Leading in the university's survey is the expected winner of Saturday's straw poll, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Romney's at 27 percent, up from 17 percent in March.

In second place in the University of Iowa survey of Hawkeye Republicans is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, with 11 percent. That's down nine percentage points from where Giuliani's March showing. The New Yorker is also skipping the straw poll.

Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who has not yet formally announced a candidacy, is in third place with 6.5 percent, up only slightly from the 5 percent he had in March. Thompson is not campaigning for a good straw poll result, but he is expected to visit the state next week.

Among those who are trying to compete with Romney in the straw poll, at least two are running better than McCain statewide: Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and Colorado Representative Tom Tancredo, both of whom were at 4.2 percent in the University of Iowa survey.

Amusingly, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, a serious contender for the Democratic nomination, would be a player on the Republican side if he decided to switch parties.

According to the University of Iowa survey, 6.7 percent of registered Republicans in Iowa say they back Obama. That's better than Fred Thompson, Tancredo, Brownback and McCain -- and, of course, former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, who has indicated that he will quit the race if he fails to finish first or second in Saturday's straw poll.

Indeed, among Republicans in Iowa, Obama is not far behind Giuliani.

For the record, like McCain and Giuliani, Obama has decided not to contend in Saturday's GOP straw poll.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

John Nichols' new book is THE GENIUS OF IMPEACHMENT: The Founders' Cure for Royalism. Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson hails it as a "nervy, acerbic, passionately argued history-cum-polemic [that] combines a rich examination of the parliamentary roots and past use of the 'heroic medicine' that is impeachment with a call for Democratic leaders to 'reclaim and reuse the most vital tool handed to us by the founders for the defense of our most basic liberties.'"

Comments (33)

1. John McCain should have promoted the Republican torture agenda more openly. He should have took the microphone at the debate, said I am pro-torture, and he might still have our vote.

   Posted by conshame at 08/10/2007 @ 2:39pm

2. If only McCain had jumped ship with the rest of the republicans on the whole war thing he'd still be a contender. You got to give him credit for sticking to his "guns" though, pointless as the war is and all.

   Man, if Romey gets the nod from the R's, that's great news for democrats--he's so beatable. Moreso than Rudy. I don't understand why Ron Paul isn't getting support. As a democrat, I'd fear his presence if his numbers would go up because he's the best looking candidate they've got. I don't mean John Edwards good looking, I'm talking about his conservative credentials. Seems like that would resonate more, but not in the mess that party is presently in. Suddenly the factions of the right have dismantled: the social, economic, religious factions have gone different directions.

   MUAHA HA HA HA HA!!!

   Posted by MATTMAN at 08/10/2007 @ 2:42pm

3. John McCain was dead, buried, and salt sowed into the earth by the Right....the moment the immigration bill came up with his and TED KENNEDY's name on it (in addition to the content).

   but this is odd, Mr Nichols--

   "Indeed, among Republicans in Iowa, Obama is not far behind Giuliani."

   Seems that should WORRY you, more than encourage you? Obama is "safe" enough for Republicans in Iowa that they feel comfortable supporting him. If it was Kucinich that might be weird and a paradigm shift in politics....but Obama?

   Seems that undercuts the junior Senator from Illinois' mantle of "anti-Hillary", no?

   Posted by Mask at 08/10/2007 @ 3:06pm

4. while the demise of the republican party is good news, i'm still worried about another nafta/wto-bringing, iraq-attacking (remember no-fly zones) "democrat" like billy clinton.

   if only we could wean people off macdonald's and wonderbread. kucinich and paul are the only serious candidates in all this but they're not plastic and thus, not viable in our sound-bitten age.

   i know, ¿how about hilton/lohan '08? or ¿maybe spears/richie '08? they could mud-wrestle instead of debating!

   Posted by frosty zoom at 08/10/2007 @ 3:21pm

5. i know, ¿how about hilton/lohan '08? or ¿maybe spears/richie '08? they could mud-wrestle instead of debating!

   Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 08/10/2007 @ 3:21pm

   Yup. Politics has morphed itself into nothing more than another niche market in the entertainment industry. It won't be long until it's part of the "adult" entertainment industry! Actually I guess it sort of is.

   Posted by MATTMAN at 08/10/2007 @ 3:47pm

6. if only we could wean people off macdonald's and wonderbread.----Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 08/10/2007 @ 3:21pm

   FROSTY, not very "progressive", dude.

   People eat Mickey Ds and Wonderbread because THEY CAN'T AFFORD tofu burgers Fed'exed from some organic farm in Vermont "to show how much they care" or pay $5 a loaf "made from fair trade oats from Costa Rica" from "Whole Foods".

   Posted by Mask at 08/10/2007 @ 3:50pm

7. Posted by MASK 08/10/2007 @ 3:50pm

   food's my favourite metaphor (these "candidates" are the junk food).

   however, to answer your comment. people eat this stuff because they don't know better. it actually costs more to eat the crap. i just bought $3 in tomatoes and made enough pasta sauce for 10 meals. i just bought $4 in peaches and will enjoy these little pieces of god all week long! it doesn't take buying expensive stuff to eat well--grow your own or buy it locally from someone who does!

   Posted by frosty zoom at 08/10/2007 @ 4:12pm

8. grow your own or buy it locally from someone who does!

   Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 08/10/2007 @ 4:12pm

   I wonder if Peter Rothberg grows his own.

   Posted by MATTMAN at 08/10/2007 @ 4:20pm

9. WHAT IN GOD'S ***HELL*** HAPPENED TO MCCAIN???...

   I'm certainly no fan of his but he makes Howard Dean's campaign look like a major success.

   Was it his grinning tour of the Baghdad market in the company of a company of U.S. soldiers with a little help from some close air support?

   Is it his criticism of Bush for not doing ENOUGH to pursue the so-called "war in Iraq"? (Even though said Baghdad market tour was supposedly evidence of "progress"?)

   How to go from front to punt in a few short months. I'm nothing if not your basic conspiratorialist but, in this case, it does look like McCain shot himself in his own foot. Repeatedly.

   If Romney wins the Repuke nomination and goes on to win the Presidency (hey, the guy IS good-looking in a plastic sort of way), want to know what he'll do? Romney will institute manadatory national healthcare for everyone, just like he did in MA. The kicker? YOU'LL have to pay for it -- I mean directly, out of pocket and not through taxes -- just like in MA, where a law just went into effect (thanks too, Dem legislature for coming through again) requiring EVERYONE living in the state to have medical insurance. Does this reduce the outrageous premiums you still have to pay to private insurers? Nada. This is just the Republican version of universal health care.

   Posted by w_m_bear at 08/10/2007 @ 4:34pm

10. I'd be so thrilled if Romney wins the nomination because he will never win the presidency. He's a religious nut, draft-dodging flip-flopper (I hate to use that term, being that it helped defeat Kerry, but it's so appropriate with this guy).

    Posted by MATTMAN at 08/10/2007 @ 4:50pm

11. Mask, there you go, lashing out at tofu burgers. Saying theyre rich elitist upper crust yuppiefood. You cook the soybeans, grind them up, mix flour in with them and they cost about 20 cents each. You try that with a cow. There is nothing expensive about it. Mask is simply ill-informed about how much things cost.

    Posted by conshame at 08/10/2007 @ 5:39pm

12. Mask, there you go, lashing out at tofu burgers. Saying theyre rich elitist upper crust yuppiefood. You cook the soybeans, grind them up, mix flour in with them and they cost about 20 cents each. You try that with a cow. There is nothing expensive about it. Mask is simply ill-informed about how much things cost.

    Posted by CONSHAME 08/10/2007 @ 5:39pm

    I'll lash out at your recipe--because it sounds horrible. Garden burgers and Boca burgers are delicious regardless of whether they have any preservatives!

    Posted by MATTMAN at 08/10/2007 @ 6:01pm

13. Posted by CONSHAME 08/10/2007 @ 5:39pm

    CS, not very progressive of you either.

    After all, under the Bush economy and crush of no minimum wage hike, people are working 2-3 jobs to make ends meet and DON'T HAVE TIME to make their own soy burgers. And are thereby FORCED to quickly go through the "drive-through" and get a few single burgers for a buck a pop.

    Very un-compassionate of you!

    Posted by Mask at 08/10/2007 @ 7:49pm

14. I masochistically watched one of the Republican debates. All the candidates relentlessly played to the most idiotic instincts of their base. Guiliani practically promised to challenge Bin Laden personally to an 'extreme fighting' death match. I thought Tom Tancredo was going to declare that Spanish classes should be eliminated from public schools, just in case it gives kids the wrong idea. The exception to the silliness was McCain, who somewhat came off as a politician familiar with some of the realities of Washington and the world. I suspect it is this style, rather than his continuing support for the war in Iraq, that is killing him in the polls.

    Posted by threehegemons at 08/10/2007 @ 7:54pm

15. Posted by THREEHEGEMONS 08/10/2007 @ 7:54pm

    They're ALL for the war...it's immigration that set McCain apart....and killed his campaign.

    Posted by Mask at 08/10/2007 @ 7:55pm

16. This Republican will be voting AGAINST THE LIBERAL John McCain in the primaries. He is on the LIBERAL side of many issues, and he is soft LIBERAL side of Torture. LIBERALS CHEERED THEIR HER JOHN MCCAIN, when he said that LIBERAL shhit against torture, at the 1st debate.

    John McCain the LIBERAL, says he is against torture because of his experience in Vietnam. But hey, LIBERAL John, that is exactly why America lost that war. Because of LIBERALS like John McCain who were against torture.

    John McCain seems to think, like alot of LIBERALS, that Torture is un-constitutional. "No cruel or unusual PUNISHMENT". Torture to get information is about getting information about a ticking time bomb, it isn't about PUNISHMENT, Liberals.

    Any LIBERAL who doesnt think America should torture, you need to watch 24. Just watch one episode of 24, LIBERAL, if you think America shouldn't torture. The Republican Party does not need LIBERALS like John McCain.

    I support Real Republicans - not LIBERALS. The Republican Party does not need LIBERALS like John McCain.

    Posted by conshame at 08/10/2007 @ 8:28pm

17. it's amazing what you have to do to twist yourself into becoming a republican presidential candidate. Not even the hamsters will vote for someone who does that.

    It's kinda like organized crime, to win the hamster nomination you gotta be born hamster

    Posted by Will C. at 08/10/2007 @ 8:47pm

18. Posted by CONSHAME 08/10/2007 @ 8:28pm

    CS, do you take some form of medication? And when was the last time you took it?

    Posted by Mask at 08/10/2007 @ 8:56pm

19. Posted by MASK 08/10/2007 @ 8:56pm

    hey cumbucket, you really have to be walking the ragged edge of sanity if all you got left is questions about someone else's meds

    Posted by Will C. at 08/10/2007 @ 9:03pm

20. Any LIBERAL who doesnt think America should torture, you need to watch 24. Just watch one episode of 24, LIBERAL, if you think America shouldn't torture. The Republican Party does not need LIBERALS like John McCain.

    Posted by CONSHAME 08/10/2007 @ 8:28pm

    so, 24 should be the basis of national security policy.

    how about "the price is right" to guide economic policy? how about "house" for surgeon general?

    are you on mushrooms?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/10/2007 @ 9:39pm

21. hey mask

    i asked the question about mushrooms AND THEN i saw your meds question.

    there has to be a reason.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/10/2007 @ 9:41pm

22. both of you are druggees

    Posted by Will C. at 08/10/2007 @ 9:50pm

23. Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 08/10/2007 @ 9:41pm

    Yep...and Carl Jung knew it 100 years ago.

    Posted by Mask at 08/10/2007 @ 10:29pm

24. shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, (mask is channeling jung)

    Posted by Will C. at 08/10/2007 @ 10:36pm

25. mmmmmmmm....mushrooms.

    "both of you are druggees"

    Posted by WILL C. 08/10/2007 @ 9:50pm

    Doh!

    Posted by Malcontent at 08/10/2007 @ 10:47pm

26. yeah but did you know jung was in on it?

    Posted by Will C. at 08/10/2007 @ 10:51pm

27. I am shocked, shocked I tell you, at the talk of illicit drugs on this blog.

    the repub candidate for pres is more in the line of a sacrificial lamb, as there is no chance in hell that the country will elect a repub this time around. even the worst sucker wakes up one day.

    Posted by johannesrolf at 08/11/2007 @ 09:40am

28. He can skip it all he wants, when he finished at under 2% his campaign is all but done. Rudy can also use all the excuses he wants, he skipped the primary because he didn't want to come in 3rd. Anyone think Romney can finish in front of "Don't Know" in the straw poll?

    Full Iowa Straw Poll Coverage [crookedinc.com]

    Posted by gvincent at 08/11/2007 @ 09:59am

29. MATTMAN, you are in-correct. What do you think they put in veggie burgers? Ground up soybeans, flour, and spices. You're like the little kids who won't eat hamburgers at a barbeque because they aren't exactly like McDonalds.

    Posted by conshame at 08/11/2007 @ 11:31am

30. There goes MASK, saying Soy-Burgers are un-compassionate. Hey Mask, you forgot that PRODUCTIVITY is up despite wages. We have equipment. You take a great big pot, you cook the soybeans - this takes a long time but you only need to do it once a month - even most poor people have access to big pots. You then freeze the soybeans - even most poor people have access to a freezer, Mask.

    Then, whenever you want burgers, you thaw the soybeans. "Thawing" is not a labor intensive activity. (0 hours, 0 minutes of labor) Grind them - "Grinding" only takes a minute, you can use a potato-masher - even most poor people have access to a potato-masher, Mask. (0 hours, 1 minute) Then, you mix in the flour and spices. (0 hours, 2 minutes) Flour is cheap and for spices all you need is a dash of pepper. You mix it all together with a spoon or something. Then you take a frying pan and oil, cook the patties, oh - you have to form the patties (13 seconds). Halfway through the cooking, you flip the patties over. (4 minutes) THERE. That only took 0 hours, 6 minutes, and 13 seconds.

    MASK HOW DARE YOU LASH OUT AT WHAT I EAT. SOYBEANS ARE NOT RICH DELICACIES ONLY FOR PEOPLE WITH ALOT OF MONEY. YOU GO AHEAD AND STUFF YOUR FACE OVER AT MCDONALDS. I DONT CARE. YOU LEAVE MY FOOD ALONE, MASK. IF I HAD YOU OVER FOR DINNER, I WOULD MAKE YOU EAT OUTSIDE.

    Posted by conshame at 08/11/2007 @ 11:44am

31. Posted by CONSHAME 08/11/2007 @ 11:44am

    See, if it was ANYBODY else, I'd say you're trying to be funny with this feighed outrage over....soybeans!....

    but since I know you and your nuttiness and lack of humor, it's just weird.

    Posted by Mask at 08/11/2007 @ 12:03pm

32. CON's TOFUbooger sounds blandishly yuckful, very vomiting :(&*%$

    but more humor than his usual and quite lame bumper sticker gubberish!

    Posted by is is IS at 08/11/2007 @ 7:11pm

33. I would love it if the Democrats had a similar straw poll so that they could go ahead and get Chris Dodd and Joe Biden out of the way, especially if they are going to start doing Clinton's dirty work for her.

    Posted by OEST at 08/13/2007 @ 8:31pm