I've long worried that John McCain could be, as Arianna Huffington put it yesterday at the Personal Democracy Forum conference, a "Trojan Horse" candidate for the GOP. His perceived status as a maverick and his cultural savvy has long inoculated him from the troubles plaguing the Republican Party and boosted his image among young voters. Out of all the GOP contenders, he seemed most capable of reviving the Republican brand among a generation trending heavily Democratic.

According to a new poll by Democracy Corps, that image of McCain the Maverick has shattered.

Since Democracy Corps' last survey in April, John McCain's favorable ratings among young voters has dropped from 34 to 30%, and his unfavorable ratings have jumped over ten points, rising from 37 to 49%. Two of the supposedly biggest advantages a McCain candidacy brings to the GOP - his popularity with independents and his "liberal" views on immigration reform - also took serious hits in recent months. Among independent young voters, McCain's unfavorable rating nearly doubled, rising from 27% in April to 49% in June, and among Hispanics his unfavorable rating is now a whopping 70%. Apparently McCain's "principled" stand on immigration during the primaries was not enough to pull Hispanics back towards the Republican Party.

According to the report, McCain's favorable/unfavorable numbers now mirror those of the Republican Party, which has seen its brand collapse among young voters in the past two years:

In a head to head match-up against Barack Obama, McCain loses the youth vote 66 - 33% among likely voters, a larger margin than Democrats enjoyed during the wave election of 2006.

What happened to McCain the Maverick? How did his highly-cultivated independent brand crash so fast?

Democracy Corps points to the transformation of McCain into "McSame," a typical politician tied to the failures of the Bush Presidency and the Republican Party. That notion has gained great traction in recent months, in particular around the issues of Iraq and the economy, the two most pressing issues in the eyes of young voters and two areas in which McCain is most tightly tied to the policies of the Bush Administration and the GOP.

According to Democracy Corps, when McCain's policies on Iraq and the economy are laid before young voters, along with potential consequences for young Americans, a majority of young voters (60 - 65%) express serious to very serious doubts about McCain's candidacy. As long as McCain holds policy positions simlar to Bush and the GOP on those two major policy issues, and as long as Democrats, bloggers, and activists continue to explain the consequences of those policies to young voters, it's hard to see how McCain can recover his maverick status and gain ground among young voters.

Comments (24)

1. The Newsweek poll has been poo-poo'ed and it may be too high (53-38% Obama)...but it can't be completely without merit.

   And unless the Repubs can dig up something WORSE than "Jeremiah Wright" and "bitter"...and by late September, the numbers start to solidify.

   Posted by Mask at 06/24/2008 @ 7:06pm

2. BTW, before FRANKGRITS shows up on this thread...again, try to pin him down-

   "Will you vote for McCain in 2012, given your support and respect for him NOW, FRANK?"

   $500 says no straight answer.

   Posted by Mask at 06/24/2008 @ 7:28pm

3. If young voters are more heavily anti-Repub than the general public, it could be due to their use of Al Gore's 'Information Superhighway', where divergent viewpoints still get some airtime, as opposed to propaganda-heavy television and newspapers.

   Or it could just be the number of friends and classmates coming home in coffins and wheelchairs, thanks to McCain's party and its policy of perpetual warfare.

   Voters of any age aren't stupid enough to continue believing Fox News when their own eyes and ears bring home a diametrically opposed version of events.

   Posted by samcrossett at 06/24/2008 @ 7:43pm

4. 100 years in Iraq, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran, over-turning Roe v. Wade, and the failed "trickle-down economics" of the past that favor the rich will sink McCain in November!

   Posted by Metteyya at 06/24/2008 @ 8:20pm

5. Don't forget that younth tend not to be auto-authoritarian, slap down dic'tatorship philosophy, which is the hsuB/cHeney admin-- esp. when they saw new con New Orleans, see the gestapo DoJ, see their education left behind, barely learnt that the US Constitution is great then to see the MIC MAD GOP use it for TP, add hunting drunk from a car and shooting buds in the face, pervy enough to have wide-stance sex in a toilet with underage interns, taking bribes from no bid contractor buds, making shit up about religion/gays/ marriage then wipe it with more shit, WTF... and the shitty lies just go on and on and on.

   I do not think the new con repubs actually thought intelligence would survive this long to outlast their BS.

   Here's hoping it's not too late.

   Posted by hsuBfools at 06/24/2008 @ 9:52pm

6. er, youth

   Posted by hsuBfools at 06/24/2008 @ 9:52pm

7. The youth should blame new con repubs for not being able to drive the cars they've been wanting to for so long seeing as hsuB-- plamed Clinton/Gore for the high prices (then 2000/$10-20 a barrel)-- in keeping, couldn't McCave and/or Obama fairly blame hsuB/cHeney admin for the high price of oil too (up 7X)?

   http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/analysis/314

   Posted by hsuBfools at 06/24/2008 @ 10:33pm

8. A simple read of the polling data and it's basis shows that this poll is to put it bluntly: a joke.

   the sample size was 600 which in itself does not invalidate the data until you look further.

   half of the sample were conducted via web based interviews which are highly unreliable.

   Non voters and unlikely voters were not excluded from the data and no indication is given how many of the sample were non voters.

   Less than 100 Hispanic youth were sampled and no filtering was done as to how many are not even citizens since no attempt was made with any of the sample to determine if they were even eligible to vote.

   This is not to say that the general trend this election doesn't favor Obama. It's just that articles and polls like this do nothing to provide any real indication of the substance of the youth vote.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/25/2008 @ 12:51am

9. With more information like this coming out,it is laughable when you hear the MSM talk about the polling data suggesting a close race.This election I believe will put the MSM on its heels for years to come.It is also showing the lack of influences the Faux news and its contributors are having on the general populace.After November 4th,the midnight oil will be burning a long time in those newsrooms.

   Posted by eniobob at 06/25/2008 @ 08:19am

10. Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/25/2008 @ 12:51am

    LVLIB hasn't liked polls since support for the war and Bush dipped below 50%!

    heheh

    Posted by Mask at 06/25/2008 @ 08:46am

11. Answer: YES, McCave and Obama should blame, and fairly so, the hsuB/cHeney admin for the high price of oil (up 7X).

    http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/analysis/314

    That McCave isn't-- makes him part of the problem.

    Posted by hsuBfools at 06/25/2008 @ 09:13am

12. 'Democrat Barack Obama was stumped this weekend when a woman asked him about cleanup at the nation's most contaminated nuclear area -- the Hanford site in Washington state where scientists helped create the atomic bomb. Obama acknowledged that he didn't know much about the problem, but promised he would learn about it. "Here's something that you will rarely hear from a politician, and that is that I'm not familiar with the Hanford site, so I don't know exactly what's going on there," Obama said Sunday at a campaign stop in Pendleton, Ore. "Now, having said that, I promise you I'll learn about it by the time I leave here on the ride back to the airport."...' -- 19 May, 2008 -- http:// news.yahoo.com/ s/ap_campaignplus/ on_the2008_trail

    ‘Stupidity is like nuclear power; it can be used for good or evil.' -- Scott Adams, ‘Dilbert'

    Posted by HonestLiberal at 06/25/2008 @ 10:26am

13. Political science has found that each party needs to constantly take in new voters over time. Depending on demographic waves, there are times when it is critical to fold in new voting groups. In the past 10 years or so, the Republican Party has fallen down on this job. 18-32's are in the process of forming the "habit" of voting Democratic. Hispanics (with the possible exception of Cuban-Americans) might be the next group to join the Democratic bloc. A majority of women voters already tend to favor the Democratic Party. Aside from Evangelical "Christians," some suburban voters, and traditional strongholds like the Great Plains states, the Rovian Republican Party could be in for a long twilight. If Obama can nail down younger voters, hispanics, women, blacks, better educated voters, Jews, Catholics, and unions, what's left? Southern White guys and old people? That's not much to build a party on. Rove's 50% + 1 strategy might be seen in a few years as one of the worst disasters for our two party system ever.

    Posted by Hamiltonian at 06/25/2008 @ 11:24am

14. Political science has found that each party needs to constantly take in new voters over time. Depending on demographic waves, there are times when it is critical to fold in new voting groups. In the past 10 years or so, the Republican Party has fallen down on this job. 18-32's are in the process of forming the "habit" of voting Democratic. Hispanics (with the possible exception of Cuban-Americans) might be the next group to join the Democratic bloc. A majority of women voters already tend to favor the Democratic Party. Aside from Evangelical "Christians," some suburban voters, and traditional strongholds like the Great Plains states, the Rovian Republican Party could be in for a long twilight. If Obama can nail down younger voters, hispanics, women, blacks, better educated voters, Jews, Catholics, and unions, what's left? Southern White guys and old people? That's not much to build a party on. Rove's 50% + 1 strategy might be seen in a few years as one of the worst disasters for our two party system ever.

    Posted by Hamiltonian at 06/25/2008 @ 11:24am

15. Vote John McCain, Vote John McCain/ For another 4 years of the same again -/ Watch the dollar go down the drain;/ Vote John McCain if you're insane!

    Vote John McCain, support the rich/ and kick the poor back into the ditch - / Gotta take care of the beer money bitch;/ Vote John McCain, he'll hit the switch!/

    Vote John McCain, get Dubya II/ And bomb Iran right into the blue/ Maybe do the Pakistanis too?/ Vote John McCain, and turn the screw!

    Vote John McCain for the same but worse, / Stealing out of an empty purse -/ The poor can holler and the world can curse;/ Vote John McCain and call the hearse.

    Vote John McCain, Vote John McCain/ For another 4 years of the same again -/ Watch the dollar go down the drain;/ Vote John McCain if you're insane!

    Posted by mikecope at 06/25/2008 @ 11:42am

16. Posted by HonestLiberal at 06/25/2008 @ 10:26am

    Honest, put that glossophobia of yours to work and...

    quote McCain and what he said he knew about the economy?

    Posted by Mask at 06/25/2008 @ 11:53am

17. Heard a new poll on the MSM that stated that only 27% will admit to being a repub.

    http://tinyurl.com/3cgtzy

    Yet 30% will admit to being a racist...

    http://www.newser.com/story/30623.html

    Posted by hsuBfools at 06/25/2008 @ 12:49pm

18. Posted by mikecope at 06/25/2008 @ 11:42am

    You need a line in there for the cultists who are voting McCain in order to give Hillary her last shot in 2012.

    Posted by Mask at 06/25/2008 @ 5:08pm

19. Posted by frankgrits at 06/25/2008 @ 5:43pm

    FRANK, you going to vote for the man you admire so much (and will vote for this year)....when he runs for re-election in 2012???

    or do you not admire him THAT much?

    Posted by Mask at 06/25/2008 @ 7:02pm

20. Anybody who thought that Mc Cain had a chance at a general election win with his stance on Iraq is obviously under the influence of some narcotic(probably a legal one). Especially if he keeps repeating that we are winning a war where winning is not even clearly defined. I don't even understand why just being a POW makes you an irrefutable"expert" on foreign policy. He has proven on various occasions that he lacks an understanding of the basics of Middle Eastern factions and idiosyncracies. It may seem like a light hearted thing but that Bomb Iran joke with the Beach Boys is another clear indication that this man is careless about war and has no understanding of the implications on everyone involved. When have you ever seen a Presidential canditate poke that kind of fun at the possibility of a another conflict.

    Very little understanding on economics. Aligned with lobbyist left and right. This man has everything it takes to not be the president of this country. Especially at this point in time and history. What part of 70% of American are not for the war is not clear to Republican voters? The Republican party effectively commited suicide by electing him. Now they can suffer the consequences. I consider myself a young voter and there is nothing Mc Cain can do or say that will ever get my vote. I don't know anyone my age that would vote for him.

    Posted by Ignacio at 06/25/2008 @ 7:33pm

21. The GOP IGNORED and blew off the young voters who were participating in their party http://mschaut.wordpress.com/2008/06/11/mccain-courting-independents-you -gave-us-less-than-nothing and the fact is that, because of their behavior, there are many of those young voters who are looking to take the GOP DOWN.

    Its no loss to them, considering that the democratic party holds all the same values that the GOP does and the candidate is at least exciting and has some interest in the younger crowd.

    Those who are really concerned about the war, about the economy, and about government truly representing THE PEOPLE are leaving the party in droves, no matter what age they are.

    In order for the Republicans to win this battle, this election now there are only two options. First option, steal the votes courtesy of diebold. Second option, have martial law declared. Outside of those two, the treatment the republican party gave to the young voters was so horrible that you can be sure that they've LOST a generation of supporters. Think it will last long with that kind of an attitude? No?

    Time for some OTHER parties to step forward.

    Posted by thoracle at 06/25/2008 @ 8:27pm

22. Time for some OTHER parties to step forward.----Posted by thoracle at 06/25/2008 @ 8:27pm

    No...that's the THIRD option for how the Republicans win. Several new parties, which will primarily be left-wing, dividing up the Democratic/"progressive" vote...

    while the conservatives stay firmly behind the GOP and win it with pluralities.

    Posted by Mask at 06/26/2008 @ 09:01am

23. Posted by frankgrits

    Yeah those same polls had Rudy Guliani and Hillary Clinton as the inevitable candidates less than a year ago. Mr. Guliani didnt even make it to 1st base. His candidacy and popularity were a visual effect. McCain's campaign or popularity is another magician trick . Staged speeches you can clearly see through(that green screen episode). As opposed to stadiums filled on the other side with real enthusiasm. Barely ever see a sign. The energy and enthusiasm of his followers is at least ignorable. They know it. The only way they'll win is if they scare you to death. One of his advisers recently let that one slip. Republicans: Understand it and admit to it: You guys are way off the reality radar. They've lied through their teeth. There's enough evidence of this administrations lack of respect for the citizenry. Even the insiders dissent(Powell, McClellan, etc). You can choose to ignore ALL of this evidence and be a party loyalist, but the truth, is ultimately unchangeable. Either way, unless you have something personal to gain, I don't know where loyalty to a party is anything else other than ignorant. Ever tried loyalty to the truth? The Bible says it might just set you free.

    Posted by Ignacio at 06/26/2008 @ 1:38pm

24. Regardless of what the polls say,voting for McCain or Obama is a no win situation for Americans. Neither candidate's agenda is focused on resolving the outrageous fuel cost and the economic ruin this Country is faced with. That is the prime reason I'm voting independent this election year. I hope more democratic and republican voters follow suit. Also we as voters and taxpayers need to really focus on cleaning house in the Senate and Congress. Vote people into office who are more inclined toward reducing the number of "Pies" the Government has it's fingers in and get behind the American People for a change. We have too many serious problems right here at home.

    Posted by Dracconous at 06/26/2008 @ 3:42pm