For as long as I've been involved in youth organizing (about five years now), our most difficult adversary has been the press. During the 2004 election, the media over-hyped the circus that was P. Diddy's "Vote or Die," while ignoring the real work on the ground done by groups with far less star power (and consequently a smaller draw for a rag looking to sell papers or pull in eyeballs). After the election, despite large gains made in youth turnout and participation, the media largely botched its analysis by falsely declared the youth vote – once again – little more than electoral vaporware.

It's been one of the great victories for the youth organizing community this cycle that the media narrative has finally – and surprisingly, accurately – turned in our favor. Which is why I was hugely disappointed this weekend to read a piece in Salon written by Democratic pollster and fellow Deaniac Paul Maslin that proclaimed the youth vote to be "not that big of a deal."

To be fair, Maslin gets it right when he says that youth turnout is about more than Obama. The increases we've seen are a long time in coming and are due to a confluence of factors including: the increased size and natural engagement of the Millennials generation, over four years of organizing work in the field and online to engage young voters on the part of progressive youth organizers, and a real devotion of time and campaign resources on the part of the Democratic Presidential candidates.

But Maslin gets it wrong when he tries to lay blame for Kerry's loss at the feet of young people. Voters under 30 not only increased their turnout in larger numbers than any other age demographic in 2004, they were also the only age demographic to vote for John Kerry over President Bush. Maslin's thinking is common among youth-vote critics who clutch to a nonsensical binary world-view that a friend of mine summed-up rather aptly: "Everyone expects young people to fail until they succeed, and then they didn't succeed enough."

Maslin gets it wrong when he claims that Kerry's victory among youth (and thus Obama's strength in that demographic as well) was merely a return of Nader voters to the Democratic fold. Studies from PEW, the Harvard Institute of Politics, the New Politics Institute, and election results from 2006, in which young voters chose Democrats 60 – 38%, all point to a long-term shift among Millennials towards the Democratic Party and a comparatively more progressive worldview than the more conservative Generation X.

Maslin gets it wrong when he claims that the surge in the youth vote "has already taken place." Youth turnout is up in almost every single primary thus far. In many states it is double, or even triple turnout from 2004. Turnout is always lower in the primaries than in the general election. Indeed, many young, independent voters – shut out of closed primaries in their states - have not yet had the opportunity to cast a ballot. Moreover, the Millennial generation is growing in size and electoral strength every year. This year, an estimated 44 million 18 – 29 year olds will be eligible to vote – potentially one fifth of the electorate. We have yet to see the true strength of the Millennial generation at the polls.

Maslin gets it absurdly wrong when he tries to dilute the strength of the youth vote by asserting that young black and latino voters shouldn't be considered part of the youth surge. People can fit into more than one demographic category. The Millennial generation is the most diverse generation in history with fully 40 percent of Millennials are non-white and this complexity shouldn't obscure the age group's potential political impact.

Maslin's piece is also disturbingly myopic for someone involved in Democratic Party politics. The Presidential election is not the end-all-be-all of politics and the effects of record voter registration and voter turnout are not limited to the Presidential race. The bulk of new Millennial voters will punch, pull or tick off their vote for Sen. Obama, but then they will also look to down-ballot races. Through their increased participation and partisanship in municipal and Congressional races, where a few hundred or a few thousand votes make the difference, we could see a new crop of young Democratic officials at all levels of government.

As others have noted before me, the kids are alright, and 2008 offers a unique opportunity for the Democratic Party to begin building a 30 or 40-year majority in the electorate. Studies show that partisanship is a habit formed early in life (pdf). If someone casts their ballot for the same party in three major elections, their partisanship tends to be locked in for life. Rather than spend time over-hyping or playing down the significance of young voters to the media, Democrats like Maslin should do all they can to encourage state parties and candidates to follow the lead of the Obama campaign. Young people will vote and volunteer if you ask them. So let's ask.

Comments (37)

1. "During the 2004 election..... After the election, despite large gains made in youth turnout and participation, the media largely botched its analysis by falsely declared the youth vote – once again – little more than electoral vaporware."

   Ms Teachout, who won the 2004 election?

   Okay...then maybe there's a REASON why the press called it "electoral vaporware", huh?

   Posted by Mask at 06/03/2008 @ 12:04pm

2. If we ever needed a shift in demographics, it is now.

   Posted by julien38 at 06/03/2008 @ 12:05pm

3. Posted by Mask at 06/3/2008

   Uh, Mask, I think the writer's name is Michael Connery.

   Posted by ACook at 06/03/2008 @ 12:12pm

4. Posted by ACook at 06/3/2008

   Sorry, my bad. Missed the byline and thought Ms Teachout was still with us.

   I maintain the point. The "big impact" of the "youth vote" on a general election has YET to be felt, and therefore can rightly be dismissed until it is.

   Posted by Mask at 06/03/2008 @ 12:59pm

5. What is truly a shame is that polls and surveys continue to show that this demographic may be one of the most ignorant when it comes to their knowledge of both government and history.

   People like Mr Connery and others like them, and especially politicos like Obama rely upon this ignorance and instead play to emotional appeals. The manipulation of people through the emotional play is a foundation of populist politics.

   It is not to deny that all politicians play to emotion at some level. Even conservatives. However, it is the bedrock of leftist politics.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/03/2008 @ 1:30pm

6. Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/3/2008

   Apparently the only qualifier for "ignorance of history" to LVLIB...

   is disagreeing with HIM!

   Now that FRANKGRITS is onboard supporting McCain and the war (due to a desire for vengence for Hillary)....he and LL are now bosom buddies and FRANK's "ignorance" has mysteriously vanished.

   "Bear, Frankgrits and the many other leftists who regurgitate what Michael Moore other radicals voice merely demonstrate they neither know history or current events.

   Dangerous idiots."----Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/6/2007

   Conservatives for the Constitution posted by John Nichols on 04/05/2007 @ 2:37pm

   Posted by Mask at 06/03/2008 @ 1:56pm

7. Posted by Mask at 06/3/2008

   What you fail to seek Mask is that Frank, while indeed being bitter over the primaries, has at least allowed himself to grow beyond that ignorance to see that there is something greater than just the Democratic Party.

   I as a conservative in many elections in the past would not hesitate to vote 3rd party because a John McCain is not a pure conservative. However, as I've said before, 9/11 changed our world.

   John McCain is light years ahead of Obama in his capacity to deal with this threat. Frank is at least adult enough to realize that. You and the other leftists remain locked into your anti-war hatred and thus cannot fathom the real need to have someone who is actually capable of dealing with this threat.

   That is why so much of the real enthusiasm is centered around the so-called progressive domestic agenda hopes that the left sees in Obama. And ignores the greater threat to our lives and security.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/03/2008 @ 2:14pm

8. I am out here in Nebraska, and at our local D caucus, one of the greatest things I witnessed was the large number of young voters that showed up. We expected 35-45 people, we had over 350. I was there handing out voter registration cards, and saw many faces of those I had already handed them out to. At least 250 people I saw were in the 18-24 yo bracket. Young people are going to inherit this nation, and they want change the way things are done before they take over. I was proud to see so many willing to take the responsibility on gracefully and with great hope.

   Posted by rasputin195 at 06/03/2008 @ 2:33pm

9. Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/3/2008

   Again. You tote being unqualified but Reagan before running for President only had 6 years as a governor which is much less experience than Obama has in politics.

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/03/2008 @ 2:35pm

10. If McCain's "preparedness" consists of continuing the policies which have made us LESS SAFE in the last 7 years, than it is completely ignorant to state Obama's presidency would make us less safe. That is the same moronic thinking that allows for scare-mongering to work with the true ignorants of this country.

    Posted by davefoley0 at 06/03/2008 @ 2:37pm

11. Ccc, you may forget this is the party that was really hoping another actor to run for the White House. Experience means little until it is a talking point.

    Posted by davefoley0 at 06/03/2008 @ 2:48pm

12. Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/3/2008

    Don't be deceived by Franks rants LV. He is voting for McCain solely out of spite. I know you are intelligent enough to see through his thin veil.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/03/2008 @ 3:04pm

13. davefoley0

    nice. I too remember the rapture Thompson's anemic run was greeted with.

    Posted by emile duBois at 06/03/2008 @ 3:04pm

14. It's ironic that LL decries today's youth for being ignorant of history and government while supporting a president who has proven time and time again that he is ignorant of history and government. Better an ignorant electorate than an ignorant chief executive.

    Posted by Guiles at 06/03/2008 @ 3:20pm

15. There has been some comments regarding the under 30 votes that I felt were uncalled for. We were all 30 once, we had ideals that we believed in and some of us protested against what we felt was wrong. I think it is awesome that the under 30 crowd has finally found someone that they believe in. They are our future, so get over it.

    Posted by lvdragonlady at 06/03/2008 @ 3:29pm

16. Frank, while indeed being bitter over the primaries, has at least allowed himself to grow beyond that ignorance to see that there is something greater than just the Democratic Party.----Posted by lvliberty1 at 06/3/2008

    Yes....getting vengence for Hillary!

    "Her pleas of support for Obama will fall on deaf ears. We will bide our time util November when we will avenge her."----Posted by frankgrits at 06/3/2008 |

    Don't Count Out the Youth Surge posted by Cora Currier on 06/02/2008 @ 5:59pm

    Posted by Mask at 06/03/2008 @ 3:53pm

17. lvliberty1, to call Mask a leftist is to drain the word of any specificity, of any real meaning the word ever had. It's like calling some centrist Republican like George Pataki a fascist, since a Pataki might actually allow himself to be placed on the broad "Right" of the political spectrum, while I'm not sure even Mask uses liberal to describe himself, let alone leftist.

    Mask, like marybretbrad, you push my buttons. Like the mainstream press, or a 3-year old, you seem to have no concept of progress. Something is one way and then, the scales tip and it is its opposite, and you, the press and our fictional toddler don't really give two farts how it got there, and whine about anyone who thinks about what came in between the jump from A to Z.

    So the growing significance of the youth vote in 2004 need not be remarked upon, should instead be dismissed as no different from past periods when it really was in the doldrums (no concept of H or R, here, just A to Z, remember), until, OHMIGOD!!!, the world is turned on its head, a 180 degree shift takes place, and now the youth vote matters, it really MATTERS, because the pundits agree that it decided an election! No sense of history, no idea of where it came from, except what the pollsters and the party shills fill their peanut-sized brains with, and they regurgitate it for us.

    You are a nitpicker extraordinaire, a master of the small picture, but one who can't be bothered with the details! Plus, you cheat. No "big impact" in Mr. Connery's story, or anything like it.

    But I do appreciate the Trekisms.

    Posted by cka2nd at 06/03/2008 @ 4:02pm

18. JOMAMMA, the youth vote may trend liberal, but not to the same degree in every generation. The New Right was in part built - especially in white ethnic communities in the Northeast and Midwest - by the children of New Dealers who turned their backs on their parent's liberal and pro-union politics. More recently, Generation X was more conservative both economically and on some social issues like abortion than their parents are or were at the same age.

    A few years ago, it was the Right that was hosting conferences for young conservatives, as well as funding internships and college newspapers for them. From the few examples I've seen on C-Span in the last couple of years, I would say that attendance has slipped at some of these events, perhaps precipitously, although I'm sure the superstars like Hannity and Coulter can still pack the Reagan/Bush Youth in most of the time.

    Posted by cka2nd at 06/03/2008 @ 4:15pm

19. Posted by cka2nd at 06/3/2008

    Well, sorry, CKA...but there are these things called "results"....

    and I haven't seen many of them in (by my own experience) TWENTY-FIVE YEARS of hearing about the "power of the youth vote"....

    dating back to college in the early 80s, when local liberal activists were claiming "After 4 years of Reagan, and a 'Me First' 1970s, 'the kids' are going to rise up and make an impact on this election, if to save us from nuclear destruction"....and Mondale won.

    And every year since then. AND including when Bill Clinton won twice...but then "oddly" they disappeared again in 2000 and 2004.

    Now if you want to talk 'baby steps'...well, this is a 'toddler' that's been taking them since McGovern in 1972.

    Love to see that kid, now ready for a prostate exam, start RUNNING and prove me wrong.

    Posted by Mask at 06/03/2008 @ 4:22pm

20. BTW, note the "youth vote" of McGovern's era...

    almost eligible for AARP now!

    heheh

    Posted by Mask at 06/03/2008 @ 4:23pm

21. cka2nd

    I remember YAF

    Posted by emile duBois at 06/03/2008 @ 5:05pm

22. It's nice to see that Frank took the Midnight Train to Asshole-ville now that Hillary's on the sidelines. But here's the thing: what makes you think that we'd vote for your girl in 2012? Think we'll forget the bitterness and the blatant racism in that statement? We won't...and neither will the children that you spit on as they try to change their world. They're immune to your consultations and quite aware of what they're going through. (Thanks David Bowie!)

    Posted by edwriter at 06/03/2008 @ 5:12pm

23. And the youth vote trends democratic(liberal), which is quite natural...until they become tax payers for real, then the shift begins...kind of Churchillian logic....about young liberals having aheart and old liberals becoming conservative with a brain.

    The puzzle for me why there are not more young people voting than there are..

    Posted by JOMAMMA at 06/3/2008

    Uhhhh says who? Because a chunk of the less intelligent people in your generation decided to switch sides?

    Would you like to talk to my parents? Both liberals. If anything as I myself get older I only become more and more pissed at the culture of ignorance in this country.

    Or maybe all liberals don't just pay their taxes.

    Posted by madlib at 06/03/2008 @ 5:46pm

24. And you know why young voters don't vote?

    Because they're being raised by the same stupid assholes that put George into office.

    Also they spend too much time obsessing over television, and have been taught that it's not polite to discuss things like politics. God forbid they actually LEARN something when hanging out with their friends.

    I could go on and on.

    Posted by madlib at 06/03/2008 @ 5:58pm

25. As a young voter I want to first answer the assertion that 9/11 changed our world. 9/11 changed what we ALLOWED it to change. The world isn't different post 9/11 because 9/11 was such a shattering event. The world changed because we let Bush have a letter of marquis to fight his war on terror the way he saw fit. We dropped the ball and now we reap the consequences for not standing vigilant against the abuses of our own government.

    Secondly, I'm 25, I take it I'm one of these millennium kids this article refers to. I started by volunteering for Gore in 2000. After that crushing defeat I was back for round two first as a supporter of Dean's campaign and after that too was stolen from us I pulled up my britches, bit the bullet, and campaigned for Kerry. After that battle was lost I was ready to give up. Hell I changed my major from Pol Sci I was so fed up. So here I am in 08 volunteering for another campaign which was once again very nearly stolen from us. I'm an exception to the rule. I'm willing to keep pressing the fight.

    Many other people in my generation aren't so impassioned. They hear that their vote doesnt matter (from the very people we're talking about in the article referenced) they see where their vote doesn't apparently matter (thanks to the Bush campaign) and eventually they start to believe that hey, their vote doesn't matter. I've tried to convince young people in my generation that it does matter. In spite of how devastating it was, Florida was a perfect example of just how important their voting is.

    But until young people are encouraged to vote from the top down and can be shown that their turn out really can make the difference you won't see that turn out. The conservatives spend a lot of money ensuring that the youth electorate remains apathetic because they know that by and large the youth electorate is liberal.

    The only vote that doesn't matter is the one not cast but convincing people of that is trickier than it looks. Show those of us who are active how to break this apathy stranglehold and my generation will show you what we can do at the polls.

    Posted by agentweez at 06/03/2008 @ 6:32pm

26. The puzzle for me why there are not more young people voting than there are..

    Posted by JOMAMMA at 06/3/2008

    Because everyone tells them that their vote doesn't matter. Then calls them ignorant and says that even when they do vote it is an ignorant vote.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/03/2008 @ 6:51pm

27. Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/3/2008

    Bullseye.

    Posted by agentweez at 06/03/2008 @ 6:56pm

28. Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/3/2008

    Bullseye.

    Posted by agentweez at 06/03/2008 @ 6:58pm

29. I'm not sure which lends your arguments more weight, libzsuck, your atrocious grammar and spelling or your hilarious barbs at libs like "dukaka."

    Posted by agentweez at 06/03/2008 @ 7:13pm

30. I'm not sure which lends your arguments more weight, libzsuck, your atrocious grammar and spelling or your hilarious barbs at libs like "dukaka."

    Posted by agentweez at 06/3/2008

    How about his faithful use of the caps lock key?

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/03/2008 @ 7:56pm

31. caps lock is the equivalent of shouting. and it's pathetic, indicative of an empty space between the ears.

    Posted by emile duBois at 06/03/2008 @ 8:07pm

32. How about his enlightened methodology of pasting the same copy and pasted replies to 50 articles? He's so damned persuasive!

    Posted by agentweez at 06/03/2008 @ 8:11pm

33. It is not to deny that all politicians play to emotion at some level. Even conservatives. However, it is the bedrock of leftist politics.

    Posted by lvliberty1

    TERROR THREAT LEVEL RAISED TO BLOOD RED!!!

    THE TERRORISTS ARE GOING TO BURN FLAGS AT AN ABORTIONIST'S GAY WEDDING!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 06/03/2008 @ 9:49pm

34. caps lock is the equivalent of shouting. and it's pathetic, indicative of an empty space between the ears.

    Posted by emile duBois

    hey, watch it, dubious!

    just trying to make a point.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 06/03/2008 @ 9:50pm

35. .the university area is ALWAYS liberal in every city...

    Posted by JOMAMMA

    now,

    why would ejumacted folk think such crazy thoughts?

    must be blinded by science.....

    Posted by frosty zoom at 06/03/2008 @ 9:52pm

36. It's poetry in motion...

    Okay I'm off the karaoke machine now. :)

    Posted by yutsano at 06/03/2008 @ 11:00pm

37. poultry in motion

    Posted by emile duBois at 06/04/2008 @ 11:57am