Do we need a draft? It seems possible. Last fall the Pentagon quietly posted a notice looking to fill positions at 2,000 local draft boards nationwide. And the logical extremes of Bush's--and maybe Kerry's--foreign policy, suggest that an increase in troop strength will be necessary for the foreseeable future.
But are the candidates speaking honestly about the draft? Definitely not. Here are a few questions we wish President Bush and Senator Kerry would answer in advance of the election and well before any possible January surprise.
For President Bush:
** The National Guard and Reserves comprise 43 percent of the 130,000 total forces in Iraq, up dramatically from their .45 percent contribution to the 2 million troops who fought in Vietnam. You recently said of the Guard, "The people I talked to, their spirits were high. They didn't view they service as a back-door draft. They viewed their service as an opportunity to serve their country." But if they serve willingly, why has the Pentagon implemented the "Stop- Loss" program eleven times, preventing troops from leaving after the completion of their service?
** Continuing with this theme, why have a third of the 3,900 Individual Ready Reservists--former soldiers who still have time remaining on their service--refused to show up for deployment?
** The National Guard failed to meet its recruiting goals last year by 10 percent, the first drop since 1994. Despite offering added bonuses, the Army and Army Reserves are in even worse shape, falling 45 and 30 percent short of projections in their first 30-day recruiting periods. Why do you think this trend has developed?
** "The biggest predictor of whether you're in the military today is the unemployment rate in your home county," Duke University political scientist Peter Feaver told the National Journal. The average soldier dying in Iraq comes from a family earning roughly $10,000 less than the national median household average ($43,718), while minorities represent 32 percent of combat and 40 percent of non-combat casualties. Only four members of Congress have children serving in active duty. Short of a draft, how can you ensure that minorities and the working poor aren't carrying an undue share of America's military burden?
** Military experts across the board insist that we need more troops in Iraq. The International Institute of Strategic Studies in London estimates that as many as 500,000 could be required to counter the insurgency and rebuild the country. How can you say that Iraqi troops will fill this void when they're not being trained at the speed the Pentagon expected, are targeted with increasing frequency by the insurgency and even abandon US troops to fight with the enemy?
For Senator Kerry:
** Along similar lines, how can you entice the international community to contribute more troops to Iraq from when France, Germany, Russia, China and the entire Arab and Muslim world oppose sending forces?
** You've proposed adding 40,000 troops to the Armed Forces immediately. How and where will you find this this additional manpower with recruiting levels plummeting and America bogged down in an unpopular and increasingly difficult war?
**********
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Ari Berman





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