California Going Indie?

"California voters are shedding their identification with the two major political parties so rapidly that if current trends continue, independent voters could outnumber Democrats and Republicans in the Golden State by 2025."

That's a pretty bold statement coming from David Lesher and Mark Baldassare writing in this past Sunday's L.A. Times.

Whether or not they're over-stating a trend, these two guys are definitely onto something here. The drift away from partisan party-identified politics can go a long way to explain what some think the inscrutable quirkiness of Kahllyfornia voters (as a certain Governor would say).

The independent trend noted in the Times piece has been underway for more than a decade. Today almost 20% -- about 3 million registered California voters--have categorized themselves as "independent" or "decline to state." And these are, by far, the fastest growing sectors of the state electorate. Almost 80% of new registration falls into these categories. Nor does this burgeoning group fit neatly into a liberal or conservative box. Lesher and Baldassare write:

Polls show that about 60% of California independents favor tougher environmental regulations over economic growth, support a ban on offshore oil drilling and believe that global warming is a serious problem. Independent voters are also among the strongest supporters of such social innovations as medical marijuana use, assisted suicide for the terminally ill, the morning-after pill and hybrid automobiles. They back gay and lesbian marriage by a 20-point margin and a woman's right to abortion by 3 to 1.

At the same time, independents are largely responsible for keeping Proposition 13's anti-tax feelings alive. Most say they believe that government "wastes a lot of taxpayer money" and that Proposition 13 was a "good thing," according to the institute's surveys. Philosophically, independents split from Democrats by favoring smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes. Still, an institute poll in January found independents supporting more money for education and health programs as well as proposed ballot measures to generate funds for healthcare and preschool.

Kinda complex, eh? One thing we know for certain from this info – as well as from recent election cycles – Republicans can't win statewide in California if they run too far to the right and alienate this vast swing constituency. But what is the lesson here for progressives? Is running as the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party" the way to fire up these voters? Or are they looking for something new that transcends the current paradigm?

Comments (9)

1. sounds like typical voters

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 02/20/2006 @ 12:19am

2. sounds like typical voters

   Posted by IBBLEBLIBBLE 02/20/2006 @ 12:19am

   Now, that's something to think about, isn't it?

   Posted by fromredbird at 02/20/2006 @ 01:21am

3. So, is the new paradigm for Democrats supposed to be...

   "Run liberal enough to win California, even if it costs you the other 49 states"?

   Posted by Mask at 02/20/2006 @ 06:43am

4. Heads up to those living in Washington state; the Washington state

   Legislature is considering a bill that would make it easier for

   felons to vote once they get out of prison -- and that, at

   the same time, would dramatically simplify the process of

   determining their eligibility. Elections officials from Secretary

   of State Sam Reed on down say they would welcome the untangling of

   the administrative knot, but the bill's prospects are dimmed

   because of legislators' fear that a vote for the measure

   could make them look "soft on crime" in an election year.

   In addition, a King County judge will hear arguments Friday in a

   lawsuit that challenges

   state laws denying the vote to criminals who have completed their

   prison sentences and

   probations but can't pay their fines and court costs. Said Beverly

   DuBois, "Once you've done

   your jail sentence and your probation, I don't think that it

   (financial obligations) should

   keep you from being able to vote."DuBois, 49, said she was a

   regular voter before

   her 2002 conviction in Stevens County for manufacturing and

   delivering marijuana.

   Permanently disabled by injuries from a 2000 car crash, DuBois

   lives on Social Security and

   disability payments and food stamps."I'm being penalized just

   because I'm poor and

   disabled," she said. "Because I don't have the income, I can't

   vote

   anymore, and I don't think that's what this country was built on."

   The ACLU has supported legislative efforts in the last few years --

   led by Rep. Jeannie

   Darneille, D-Tacoma -- to allow felons to vote once they're

   completed their sentences and

   probations, even if they have not paid all their fines and

   financial penalties. Those bills have

   gone nowhere. This year, Darneille is back with a more

   sweeping measure. Her bill would restore the voting rights of

   felons once they are released

   from incarceration, period. "It's an empowerment of communities to have

   citizens who are integrated and fully participating," she said.

   "And it's fair; I guess that's the bottom line."I urge those to

   living in Washington state to

   attend the court date on Friday; similar

   showdowns are happening in Maryland and Alabama.

   Posted by grasshopper at 02/20/2006 @ 06:50am

5. Thanks Phil I needed that; a showdown, involving felon disenfranchisement is also happening in Maryland. The governor, of Maryland, has promised to veto the proposal to make all felons eligible to vote when they leave prison. Salima Siler Marriott, a state representative, has sponsored a measure to give all former felons the vote as soon as they are released. I left her a message saying I wanted to support her any way I could; although I live in Philadelphia Anapolis MD is quite close by. the Baltimore group Public Justice Center is supporting her cause as well. You guys have any pointers on how to support this measure?

   Posted by grasshopper at 02/20/2006 @ 07:36am

6. forgot to remove "Thanks Phil I needed that" from my post; thats related to another blog site.

   Posted by grasshopper at 02/20/2006 @ 07:39am

7. Probably too soon for that, Mask, but dontcha know every trend begins west and travels east?

   Posted by nothingruler at 02/20/2006 @ 08:04am

8. Posted by NOTHINGRULER 02/20/2006 @ 08:04am | ignore this person

   REAL soon. Californey is the place you GOTTA be electoral college-wise...but it's still only 55 electors. And as I've said before, the Democratic nominee in 2008, isn't going to sound like Kucinich, but Biden or even Lieberman.

   Posted by Mask at 02/20/2006 @ 09:11am

9. Hm, what's so complex, MC? There's nothing too extraordinary about libertarianism lite.

   I guess there's a slight tension between being anti-tax and wanting more money devoted to schools, but not if you think the government is a mismanaged money pit.

   Posted by leftbehinds at 02/20/2006 @ 11:41am