Realism, Obama & Iran

The Internet is awash in dispatches, photos, poems and interviews detailing the extraordinary events that have taken place over the past few days in Iran. A growing number of the posts seem to be tinted green, in solidarity with the brave and inspiring Iranians who have taken to the streets to protest their leadership's latest effort to suppress their rights.

The display of solidarity is perfectly appropriate. We are at a potential hinge moment in Iranian history, with the corrupt theocrats of the Islamic Republic appearing to have misplayed their hand, rigging an election so blatantly that they have provoked a mass popular backlash. But however much we may wish to see the demonstrators prevail, grandstanding by the United States is not appropriate. The international community can – and should – voice support for the democratic rights of Iranians and refuse to recognize the election's legitimacy. But the last thing the courageous demonstrators in Tehran need right now is a headline-making show of support from Washington – through, say, a dramatic speech by Barack Obama addressed to the Iranian people aimed at destabilizing the regime, as Stephen F. Hayes of The Weekly Standard suggests here.

This is, in fact, something Iran's hardliners would likely welcome, proof that the protesters are acting at the behest of outsiders meddling in the region and promoting ‘regime change,' which is perhaps why the voices calling for Washington to step up the rhetoric appear to belong to western pundits, not Iranian dissidents and human rights activists. Regime change would, of course, be welcome in this case. But if it happens it will be Iranians, not Americans, who bring it about. Fortunately, President Obama appears to recognize this. How events play out over the next few weeks "is something for the Iranian people to decide," Obama said today. The statement may disappoint those who see it as America's unique mission to spread freedom and democracy throughout the world. But let's not forget where this mindset took us in recent years.

Comments (21)

1. "But the last thing the courageous demonstrators in Tehran need right now is a headline-making show of support from Washington – through, say, a dramatic speech by Barack Obama addressed to the Iranian people aimed at destabilizing the regime, as Stephen F. Hayes of The Weekly Standard suggests here."

   Aren't those the same guys who were telling us when it looked like Mousavi might win that...

   "Obama's speech in Cairo has NOTHING to do with that"?

   BTW, didn't Dubya issue a "courageous speech" the LAST Iranian election...

   and Ahmadinejad won easily???

   Posted by Mask at 06/16/2009 @ 2:52pm

2. Magic certainly is smart enough to take the easy road on foreign policies.....since not doing much of anything is the day-to-day norm.......same goes with Iraq or Afghanistan.....unlike say, rising unemployment, contentious negotiations over healthcare, holes get poked in his `stimulous' bill to let turtles though...LOL!

   Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 3:21pm

3. Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 3:21pm

   HAPP, Obama has until March of 2010.

   Same amount of time Reagan got to "fix the economy" and then declare "Morning in America".

   Hey...it's your policy.

   Posted by Mask at 06/16/2009 @ 3:49pm

4. Praise the Lord.....The Messiah has (finally) seen the promised land (by HAPPY and many other non-Dems) of 10% unemployment. But wait......he has been RELIABLY WRONG SO FAR on the economy, just how much stock should one put into his WISH that we'll be "seeing recovery shortly" if he gets the rest of his wish list?

   =================================

   Obama Sees U.S. Unemployment at 10% This Year, Recovery Soon

   By Matthew Benjamin

   June 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said the U.S. unemployment rate will reach 10 percent this year, even as the economy begins to emerge from the recession.

   "You're starting to see the engines of the economy turn," Obama said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television..."I'm confident that if we take the steps that are necessary on health care, on energy, on education, if we get a strong financial regulatory system in place so that people have confidence in the markets again, that we will end up seeing recovery shortly,"....

   Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 4:29pm

5. Staying calm, cool-as-cucumber, Bush said to shop........

   Sept. `01 Unemployment = 4.9%

   Peak Post-9/11 Unemployment - June `03 = 6.4%

   Maybe Magic should've tried it rather than scare-mongering everybody....he sure scared me....and I pulled my spending after my X'mas ski trip (booked before the Election).........hehehehehe!

   Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 5:28pm

6. Guess you wouldn't consider your son/daughter's HS graduation worthy of a memorable meal!

   Gotta go....to sports bar to watch UT play ASU in the College World Series.....I'm cheap...no cable/satellite!

   Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 5:48pm

7. Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 5:28pm

   I have never understood how, noecons like happy can claim out one side of their mouth that although Obama has been in office for 5 months, the entire recession is his fault and that since unemployment has increased since he has been in office is entirely Obama's fault. While at the same time they would argue that the prosperity and peace we had under Clinton was really just residual from the Bush 1 and Reagan years.

   I am sure that if the economy does recover in the next several months, he will somehow argue that the recovery is actually due to programs instituted by GW, and nothing to do with Obama. Such blanket vitriol toward Obama just to rationalize his percieved world view. Kinda sad.

   Posted by Extraneous at 06/16/2009 @ 5:50pm

8. I find it, frankly, stunning that so many voices --even here at The Nation-- have bought into the meme that the Iranian election was a wholesale fraud. It may have been, but I think the evidence has yet to be fully laid out and analyzed. Everything I've seen thus far seems to be solely anecdotal --and anecdote does not constitute evidence my friends.

   As a side note, Ahmadinejad is not the true holder of power in Iran, the Revolutionary Guard along with the cluster of clerics are. Also, I strongly suspect that Ahmadinejad is not the monster that the western media make him out to be. For one thing so much of what he has said is stretched into its worst incarnation --often to the point of blatant falsehoods.

   Finally, American perceptions of Iran in general are far off the mark largely. I suggest Robert Baer's recent book on Iran, "The Devil We Know" as a good quick read to get started on a better footing.

   And try this (three nicely concise blog posts with a link to NPR's Fresh Air segment with Robert Baer):

   tinyurl.com/krkt73

   ***AND THIS MUST READ (a well balanced assessment from a former Treasury operative under Ronnie Raygun):

   tinyurl.com/nvhvco

   That ought to help spread some sanity.

   JEEZUZ KRYST!.....The Nation magazine has lost much respect from me on this issue.

   Posted by b_kool_66 at 06/16/2009 @ 6:11pm

9. By the way, in response to the Hapless Wonder from Houston......

   Go Devils!

   Posted by b_kool_66 at 06/16/2009 @ 6:21pm

10. Posted by b_kool_66 at 06/16/2009 @ 6:11pm

    Okay, so we're clear on YOUR view, KOOL...

    the elections were on the up-and-up and Ahmadinejad is an "okay Joe"?

    Posted by Mask at 06/16/2009 @ 6:38pm

11. "Happy"

    If Obama were "Magic" Tehran wouldn't be bleeding. See the photos? See the oppression and suffering? Is it Magic in your eyes? He's as Magic as you are Happy.

    Posted by winyahn at 06/16/2009 @ 9:03pm

12. Happy is an idiot. Don't bother with him. Speaking to him is like speaking to a brick wall. He is content hating Obama and no matter what Obama does he will hate him. The economy could turn around tomorrow, we could pay off all our debt and we could finish out both of these wars and Happy would still completely. He is just a little yappy dog.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 06/16/2009 @ 9:08pm

13. TRUE! One trick pony, post after post: hate masked as "happy".

    Posted by winyahn at 06/16/2009 @ 9:24pm

14. I have never understood how, noecons like happy can claim out one side of their mouth that although Obama has been in office for 5 months, the entire recession is his fault and that since unemployment has increased since he has been in office is entirely Obama's fault.

    Posted by Extraneous at 06/16/2009 @ 5:50pm

    I'm HAPPY....UT won 10-6...remains in winner's bracket.

    So, normally I don't give too much of a hoot your side being soooo good at misunderstanding (more like keeping your eyes closed)....but, what the heck....you maybe worth my time.

    No one blames Magic for the recession as he had but 1/100 of a role leading up to it. However, about October, he, along with Bush and McCain, became part of the carnage as they all decided on the TARP and Chrysler/GM Bailouts. Even that, is a shared fault and we can't lay it on him alone....fair and balanced I am.

    Where the train started to go off the track, is when he failed, utterly failed, to come up with a credible stimulous bill....the price being paid is by this years' and next year's unemployed.

    My wife's co., very solidly profitable, announced last week of no raises this year......sounds great compared to suspension of 401(k) and outright layoffs.

    The economy will continue to shrink throughout this year and into next year.......and the Gubber's faux stimulous can not overcome the shrinkage of the private sector and the coming tax increases.

    Folks, stay liquid.....bargains galore forthcoming!

    Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 11:03pm

15. hate masked as "happy".

    Posted by winyahn at 06/16/2009 @ 9:24pm

    "win" masked as loser?

    I fancy myself as more like Howard Roark...he who hates no one. You, you're Peter Keating!

    Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 11:06pm

16. "if we get a strong financial regulatory system in place so that people have confidence in the markets again, that we will end up seeing recovery shortly,"....

    Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 4:29pm | ignore this person |

    Yea Happy the Obamanation that makes desolation is doing a bang up job!!!

    -- U.S. credit card defaults rose to record highs in May, with a steep deterioration of Bank of America Corp's lending portfolio, in another sign that consumers remain under severe stress.

    Delinquency rates - an indicator of future credit losses - fell across the industry, but analysts said the decline was due to a seasonal trend, as consumers used tax refunds to pay back debts, and they expect delinquencies to go up again in coming months.

    "I find it hard to believe that it is really a trend. You need to see stabilization in unemployment before you see anything else," said Chris Brendler, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus. "It is too early to see some kind of improvement."

    Bank of America Corp - the largest U.S. bank - said its default rate, those loans the company does not expect to be paid back, soared to 12.50 percent in May from 10.47 percent in April.

    Credit card losses usually follow the trend of unemployment, which rose in May to a 26-year high of 9.4 percent and is expected to peak over 10 percent by the end of 2009."Past May, seasonally it gets more challenging," said Sanjay Sakhrani, an analyst at KBW, as unemployment will keep rising and the tax refund effect will dissipate.

    Credit card lenders are trying to protect themselves by tightening credit limits, raising standards and closing accounts. They have also been slashing rewards, increasing interest rates and boosting fees to cushion against further losses.

    Posted by BigPasture at 06/16/2009 @ 11:15pm

17. The U.S. government approved a law last month limiting credit card fees and interest rates, which is expected to tighten lending further and ultimately boost defaults as consumers find it harder to refinance their debts.

    With Obamanomics in play and the Demoncrats pulling the strings the big flush (also known as the California surf) will comes soon!

    Posted by BigPasture at 06/16/2009 @ 11:18pm

18. Magic-Happy: you are very stuck. Confessing your hate is a first step. You can't. You're stuck.

    Posted by winyahn at 06/16/2009 @ 11:52pm

19. With Obamanomics in play and the Demoncrats pulling the strings the big flush (also known as the California surf) will comes soon!

    Posted by BigPasture at 06/16/2009 @ 11:18pm

    Like Rush Limbraugh, BigPasture can't wait for America to fail.

    Posted by Shingo at 06/17/2009 @ 01:52am

20. I fancy myself as more like Howard Roark...----Posted by Happy at 06/16/2009 @ 11:06pm

    More like Howard RUFF...same insights.

    Posted by Mask at 06/17/2009 @ 08:14am

21. And what about the Palestinian elections-the one which Hamas won? Oh, but they are the bad guys, so we don't have to accept the results of that election. Right!

    Posted by lingum at 06/17/2009 @ 2:02pm