Dems Vie for Victory in Virginia

The Democratic primary for governor of Virginia, which takes place on June 9, has been a pretty nasty affair from Day One. At a February fundraising dinner, Democratic candidates Creigh Deeds, Brian Moran, Terry McAuliffe and Republican nominee Bob McDonnell (the current Attorney General) came together for an ostensibly friendly roast.

After telling a joke about Deeds' donkey, Truman, McAuliffe referred to Brian Moran's media consultant, Joe Trippi, as an "ass." He said Trippi had come up to him at The Palm one day and offered to help with his race. "I said to him, 'You really want to help me? That's what you want to do? You want to help me, Joe? Great. Go work for Brian and go do for him what you did for President Dean and President Edwards."

From the audience Moran yelled, "How's President Hillary Clinton?"

That exchange pretty much sums up the primary so far. McAuliffe--the former head of the DNC, campaign chairman for Hillary and best friend to Bill--has spent his rivals into the ground and touted his "outsider" credentials, a bit of a shocker given his background as the consummate Washington insider.

Moran--a longtime delegate from Northern Virginia and brother of Congressman Jim Moran--has attacked McAuliffe over his ties to big business and for campaigning against Barack Obama. Deeds, a delegate from rural Bath County, has largely laid low and now has an ad out touting his recent Washington Post endorsement, meant to appeal to increasingly populous NoVa.

McAuliffe had opened up a big lead in a race that hasn't generated a whole lot of excitement, but now polls show a virtual dead heat. Moran's advisers say their numbers have it tied, while other polls show either Deeds surging or McAuliffe barely holding onto his lead. The rancor between McAuliffe and Moran--which no doubt stems in part from the animosity between Terry and Trippi--may give Deeds, who lost to McDonnell by 323 votes in the 2005 attorney general's race--the opening he needs.

Moran staked out the most progressive positions of the three during the primary--opposing a new coal-fired power plant and supporting a hike in the sales tax to improve Virginia's transportation nightmare--but Deeds may have the best chance in a matchup against McDonnell, given the closeness of their past contest and his appeal in both the rural and urban sections of the state.

McAuliffe is a wild card. Many Democrats, myself included, didn't think he'd make it out of the primary and still believe he'd get trounced in a general election. McDonnell will be a formidable opponent, a law-and-order conservative who plays to the base but can appeal to the broader populace in a demographically changing, politically diverse state. Democrats have won the last two governors races and the presidency, but Virginia is by no means (yet) a solidly blue state.

Comments (7)

1. Repubs may re-take Virginia...and naturally it will be "the tide is turning" and "bodes ill for Obama's re-election" talk.

   But nationally the trend isn't with them....and Dems lost CONGRESS in 1994 and Clinton stil got re-elected.

   Posted by Mask at 06/05/2009 @ 2:15pm

2. As someone who has lived in northern Virginia for 30 years with stints in central Virginia (George Allen was my congressman when he was first elected to congress), I can tell you that decency and fair play matter enormously in Virginia politics.

   Before Mark Warner was elected governor, he ran against John Warner for U.S. Senate. Although he never really had much of a chance, he ran an honorable, high-minded campaign and subsequently has cruised to easy victory and been hugely popular as both governor and current U.S. Senator.

   George Allen's national political ambitions foundered on the shoals of "Macaca" uttered to a U.S. born citizen and University of Virginia student.

   And Virginia elected Doug Wilder the nation's first black governor when President Obama was still in law school.

   So although McAuliffe's fund raising advantage and organization may ultimately carry the day--particularly if turnout is light--I don't see how he wins the general election. Too many Virginians view him as a carpetbagger. Now if he accepts defeat graciously and toils in the vineyard of Virginia politics for a couple three years, then he would have a legitimate shot at a statewide or even congressional office.

   Fun factoid: Since 1965, the party not in the White House has won the Virginia governship the same year as each presidential inauguration. And based on his early media buys and statewide victory four years ago, McDonnell is looking hard to beat.

   Posted by pvdean at 06/05/2009 @ 2:27pm

3. Ari, Check out the link below. I never heard of this before. Evidently Uncle Sam was able to keep the deaths of 700 plus soldiers quiet before D-Day. The amazing thing is that they have kept it quiet ever since. There should be a holiday or some kind of memorial for these fallen soldiers as well as for their families. This truly is a national disgrace to all who wear or have worn the uniform.

   http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30977039/

   Posted by Wolfgang1 at 06/05/2009 @ 2:42pm

4. I will never understand Clinton people.

   Hillary was not from New York State.... she comes to New York State, runs and wins to become a senator from New York.

   Terry McAuliffe, Slick Willie's buddy, is from Syracuse. So, he goes to the state of Virginia to run for Governor.

   ????

   Like I said, what is it with Clinton people. Why don't they just stay put?

   Posted by sjchermak at 06/05/2009 @ 3:43pm

5. Typo above,

   When I said "State of Virginia" up above, I should have said "Commonwealth of Virginia".

   Posted by sjchermak at 06/05/2009 @ 3:46pm

6. There is only one democrat running for governor of VA and he is Creigh Deeds. He has all the necessary qualifications to make a great governor and actually help Virginians.

   My family and I would NEVER vote for McAuliffe not only because he is a CARPETBAGGER SNAKE, but because he is another Slick Willie. He will say or do anything to get your vote, but he will NOT help our Commonwealth. He views this as a stepping-stone to his eventual run for POTUS. Not if I can help it!

   His HYPOCRISY is the very worst about him. On the night of Obama winning the Democratic Nomination for POTUS, McAuliffe had the audacity to announce to HRCs audience, "I want to introduce your next POTUS", when he KNEW Obama had won, but HRCs audience did NOT know! Does anyone actually think that after this [and all the other HRC campaign behavior as her manager], McAuliffe has changed? Not on your life!

   Posted by MadasHelinVA at 06/05/2009 @ 4:19pm

7. I wonder if the DEAD voting Demoncrat will turn out in Virginia as strong as they have in Minnesota? If so it will be another close one.

   Posted by BigPasture at 06/05/2009 @ 11:39pm