The View from Jackson

I could analyze Senator Barack Obama's Mississippi win all day--and wouldn't that be a kick? But I wouldn't be able to do nearly as provocative a job as Donna Ladd, editor of the hell-raising Jackson Free Press, and her election-night blogmates.

The post-primary story from the pundisphere was all about the stark racial disparity in the vote, and it was stark indeed, with exit polls showing 91 percent of African Americans going for Obama and 72 percent of whites for Senator Hillary Clinton. But there were other ways to read the Mississippi results, as the Free Press blog points out. For one thing, the strong white vote for Clinton was skewed, as Ladd points out, by Republicans turning out to vote for the New York Senator; 13 percent of the primary voters identified as GOPers, and nearly 80 percent of them went for Clinton. And while older people voted for Clinton, the future looks interesting for Mississippi Democrats; 72 percent of voters under 30 went for Obama, considerably more than the 60 percent overall.

Choice observations from the Magnolia State's progressive universe:

Ladd: "The race really split along racial lines here, showing that even Democrats are predictable on that front in our state.

 Of course, Obama clearly drew a lot more votes, so the 10 percent of his vote that was white might be an impressive number.

 Also, I'd like to know how many people voting who haven't been voting. There are a lot of variables here---and if turnout of progressives, young people and non-whites increases due to his candidacy, that's a huge deal and could change Mississippi's election outcomes, as Obama himself has pointed out:



"Back in August, Obama told the AP that he's the 'only candidate who, having won the nomination, can actually redraw the political map.' The reason? Black voters. 'I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum,' he said. 'So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ.' The state at the heart of Obama's prediction was Mississippi. At the time, Obama said that 'if we just got African-Americans in Mississippi to vote their percentage of the population, Mississippi is suddenly a Democratic state'; in November he told the Washington Post that he 'think[s] [he] can put Mississippi in play.'

 "It's the turnout numbers that matter here. [According to early reports, turnout was "mixed" across Mississippi.] Also, the Newsweek blog didn't take into account that McCain could draw a lackluster white vote, although [Republican Governor Haley] Barbour has ensured that [Senator Trent] Lott's seat will be on the November ballot, so that will likely help the conservative turnout, despite McCain."

Ladd: "CNN just said [Obama] has a white-male problem in Mississippi.

 Doh. 

I wish they would publish an actual number of how many white men vote Democratic here typically, without a black man on the ticket. 

Obviously, with due respect, he wasn't going to draw a huge white male vote here. The vast majority of them will vote Republican if they vote.

 The story *should* be the black turnout and excitement."

Pikersam: "BTW: We are really going to see how ruthless the Clinton camp can be now that she is one the ropes and about to go down for the count.

 She is banking on the false votes of MI and FL to win which will disenfranchise the rest of the democratic voters across the US."

Ladd: "Their analysis [on CNN] drives me crazy, with Soledad talking about Obama's white-male problem. 

Folks, Hillary's voters are going to vote for Obama if he gets the nomination. The rest of the white boyz are going to vote Republican. What matters is how many non-typical voters, of all races, might be added to the mix because they are excited by Obama?

 How hard can this be?"

Ladd: "Also, the exit polls make it look like Rush's plea for white Republicans to vote for Hillary may have worked some here. That helps in a couple ways: It helps give the nomination to Hillary, who will not excite as many new voters as Obama, and is more partisan and divisive, helping McCain in November. It also means that pundits like Soledad start talking about Obama's white-male problem. Clinton's got one, too, if not as much among diehard Democrats." (Ladd)

Golden Eagle '97: "I'm watching the returns on WAPT...Alan Keyes was on the ballot in MS?"

Comments (23)

1. "look like Rush's plea for white Republicans to vote for Hillary may have worked some here. That helps in a couple ways: It helps give the nomination to Hillary, who will not excite as many new voters as Obama, and is more partisan and divisive, helping McCain in November."

   to which the question (to friends like HAPPY) becomes....Why is ol' Rush doing that? I mean he's not trying to get Hillary the nomination, just hurt Obama.

   But why hurt Obama?...unless SOMEHOW (mysteriously) John McCain, might actually LOSE to Obama, running on "I'll give you 4 more years of Bush'ism"?!!??!? But how can THAT be???

   heheh

   Posted by Mask at 03/12/2008 @ 10:24am

2. Thank you for pointing out that idiot Soledad O'brien. Actually, all those idiots at CNN and the MSM in general are driving me crazy. They seem to think that votes for Hillary now can never go to Obama in the fall. Sure, in Mississippi and other states as well, there are people that will never vote for a black guy. But large portions of her supporters will choose the democrat, any democrat, over McBush. Why can't we get real analysis? Take PA and OH. The governors, congressmen and many mayors are all for Clinton. She has the political machine under her thumb. In states like these (highly unionized, low education) the machine brings the vote out. That's where her advantage is. Its not this phony racial divide that the media keeps playing up. In the fall, if Rendell and the gang help Obama he will win those states as well. As it is, without there help he loses by only 10. Let's stop minimizing small state victories and stop dividing this electorate along racial lines. Did not Virginia, Maryland and Wisconsin teach us that Obama can win all groups?

   Posted by rasalula at 03/12/2008 @ 11:00am

3. Those people blogging are ignoring fact that CNN didn't have the luxury to ignore. White men are not voting for Obama in the South. He will not bring democratics electorial votes in November. Politics is about winning and the power it gives you. Less about being right. Lesson for the young.

   Posted by krisellyn at 03/12/2008 @ 11:06am

4. Posted by MASK 03/12/2008 @ 10:24am

   bush won twice.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 03/12/2008 @ 11:16am

5. bush won twice.----Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 03/12/2008 @ 11:16am

   Excellent HAPPY-style answer, FZ...except....Bush and his policies weren't polling at 30% in 2000 or 2004. They are today.

   So perhaps it's possible that McCain wouldn't win in 2008 promising "more of the same"????

   Posted by Mask at 03/12/2008 @ 11:31am

6. MASK, you're right, if Bush, any Bush, is running, I'd be worried and assume the worst!

   Posted by Happy at 03/12/2008 @ 11:58am

7. MASK, you're right, if Bush, any Bush, is running, I'd be worried and assume the worst!---Posted by HAPPY 03/12/2008 @ 11:58am

   Cool....still waiting on your monstrous (Hillary-style...heheh) list of things that McCain is running on that's different from Bush?

   Posted by Mask at 03/12/2008 @ 1:44pm

8. McCain is running on that's different from Bush?

   Posted by MASK 03/12/2008 @ 1:44pm

   mccain speaks english......

   Posted by frosty zoom at 03/12/2008 @ 2:04pm

9. 13 percent of the primary voters identified as GOPers, and nearly 80 percent of them went for Clinton.

   This is something to watch in the upcoming contests that have open primaries.

   Republicans are voting for Obama because they like him, but the Republicans voting for Hillary FEAR Obama and really don't like Clinton at all.

   Because the Republican nomination is sewed up, you are going to see more of this "false support" for Hillary by some Republicans who want to see the Democratic race continue as long as possible, and voting for Hillary is their best shot at accomplishing this!

   Posted by Metteyya at 03/12/2008 @ 2:17pm

10. mccain speaks english......----Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 03/12/2008 @ 2:04pm

    Well, that's true. And he was flying jets over North Vietnam, defending us from the Communists...while Bush was flying jets over East Texas defending us from a possible Mexican Air Force attack!

    Posted by Mask at 03/12/2008 @ 2:49pm

11. Posted by METTEYYA 03/12/2008 @ 2:17pm

    Repubs (on marching orders from Limbaugh) are voting for Hillary to keep her in the race and DAMAGE Obama....they don't expect her to get the nomination.

    Of course if she did, she'd likely so cripple the Dems....that'd work for them too.

    Posted by Mask at 03/12/2008 @ 2:50pm

12. Posted by MASK 03/12/2008 @ 1:44pm

    http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/03/12/mccain/

    John McCain runs for George Bush's third term

    Based on his policies and the company he keeps, this year's Republican presidential candidate sounds a lot like the guy who ran in 2000 and 2004.

    By Juan Cole

    Posted by frosty zoom at 03/12/2008 @ 3:08pm

13. Posted by FROSTY ZOOM 03/12/2008 @ 3:08pm

    It's what I've been saying...and HAPPY (and others) have been avoiding either defending or disagreeing with.

    McCain is running on "Four more years of Bush"...with almost no changes to the agenda.

    Yet...this is an agenda which gave the Bush Presidency a 30% approval rating?!?!?

    How does that work out to the GOOD for McCain?!?!?

    Posted by Mask at 03/12/2008 @ 3:56pm

14. Rasalula pretty much got it. Obama isn't running on race and he's winning. Hillary is running on gender and she's losing. Every time someone like Gerry Ferraro stokes the resentment engine, it gets worse. Of course racists are against Obama, because like all bullies, a racist is at heart a coward. Change scares them. The more people like Rendell, Ferraro and the Clintons play to this the bigger Obama looks. Sad.

    Posted by bagehot at 03/12/2008 @ 4:04pm

15. Fiscal conservatives might find Clinton attractive too. A Texas Republican remarked on that fact. If she didn't have so many negatives she would do sell as a Republican. She should have baked some cookies!

    Posted by P. J. Casey at 03/12/2008 @ 4:57pm

16. Nice to see we skip the banal mainstream analysis from the non nothing pundits and talk to someone who actually knows something about the state so that can look for data that is informative. Thank you for looking in a place that may actually give you that insider information. ( from a MS ex patriot in the bluff city, memphis tn)

    Posted by allan.lummus at 03/12/2008 @ 7:27pm

17. To me, race has been injected by the black community. Every black columnist has injected it, black activists pressuring superdelagates that are black like Charles Rangel, and the one in GA that switched make race an issue.

    What worries me most is who is Obama really? A disturbing article was posted at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/how_does_obama_feel_ab out_amer.html, which raises many disturbing points. I hope Obama supporters can answer the points with FACTS and not slogans or posturing.

    Posted by YankeeDem at 03/12/2008 @ 9:20pm

18. I hope Obama supporters can answer the points with FACTS and not slogans or posturing.

    Posted by YANKEEDEM 03/12/2008 @ 9:20pm

    You won't get it.......It is politically incorrect, punishable by excommunication from the Lib/Prog world, to question the first NATIONAL black POTUS candidate!

    Posted by Happy at 03/12/2008 @ 11:06pm

19. That's racism: They - the balcks- will never vote for you no matter who you rae, W. Bush or HLC. As I said from day one, the blacks vote their skin only..Ungrateful, but that is their mindset.

    -----------

    Clinton Apologizes To Black Voters Presidential Hopeful Apologizes For Comments By Her Husband And Geraldine Ferraro March 13, 2008

    Ferraro Resigns From Clinton Campaign

    (CBS/AP) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton did something Wednesday night that she almost never does.

    And once she started, she didn't seem able to stop.

    The New York senator, who is tight race with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, struck several sorry notes at an evening forum sponsored by the National Newspaper Publishers Association, a group of more than 200 black community newspapers across the country.

    Her biggest apology came in response to a question about comments by her husband, Bill Clinton, after the South Carolina primary, which Obama won handily. Bill Clinton said Jesse Jackson also won South Carolina when he ran for president in 1984 and 1988, a comment many viewed as belittling Obama's success.

    Posted by HelenDAO at 03/13/2008 @ 03:03am

20. "Ungrateful, but that is their mindset."

    Posted by HELENDAO 03/13/2008 @ 03:03am

    Clueless, but that is your mindset.

    Minus the excellent vocabulary, you remind me of markhimmler more and more. Our resident rascist, frank, is gone.

    Maybe you could go find him.

    Posted by Malcontent at 03/13/2008 @ 11:38pm

21. "One suspects that beneath the soothing talk, there is bitterness in the man that we'd best learn more about before voting."

    Perhaps this bitterness appeals to the embittered electorate.

    Posted by Malcontent at 03/13/2008 @ 11:40pm

22. Obama's winning states that Democrats are not going to win in the general election.

    Posted by JohnKelly at 03/16/2008 @ 09:14am

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    Posted by votenic at 03/17/2008 @ 10:04pm