Hillary's Man Problem

A lot of men don't like Hillary. A lot of men say they don't want to vote for Hillary--even Democratic men. The new Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg poll, released December 28, shows that only 19 per cent of Democratic men favor Clinton in upcoming caucuses and primaries--less than one in five. The implications for Hillary are ominous: since she can't expect Republican men to vote for her, how can she win the election?

That poll focused on likely voters in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, but other polls asking a national sample about the November election have come up similar results. A Washington Post-ABC poll in November found that, in a Clinton-Giuliani matchup, men preferred Giuliani 51 to 44. In a CNN poll in October, only 41 per cent of men said Clinton is someone they admire (compared to 57 per cent of women).

Why do so many men dislike Clinton? Is it simply because she's a woman? Susan Carroll, Senior Scholar at the Rutgers University Center for the American Woman and Politics, told me that politics provides a more important explanation than sexism: "Men are more likely than women to identify as Republicans," she explained. "Men are more likely than women to prefer Republican candidates and their policy positions. Men's partisan preferences are the main reason why many of them wouldn't vote for Clinton. Many of the men who say they won't vote for Clinton wouldn't vote for any Democratic candidate, man or woman."

But that doesn't explain the Democratic men who won't vote for Clinton. Some of them disagree with her on the issues, especially her vote for the Iraq war--but for others, the explanation may lie in simple hostility to the idea of any woman as president.

Even if some Democratic men won't vote for her in November, Clinton could still get elected if she won enough votes from Republican women. In fact that's what the Clinton campaign is predicting. Mark Penn, a Clinton senior strategist and pollster, told reporters in October that Clinton could win 24 per cent of Republican women.

With that gain, Hillary could win the election even if 20 per cent of Democratic men voted Republican, according to DailyKos. However recent Rasmussen polls show Clinton winning only 18 per cent of Republican women, rather than the required 24, while losing 20 per cent of Democratic men. That's not enough Republican women to get Clinton elected.

Clinton advocates point out that if she got 44 per cent of the male vote in November -- the figure in that Washington Post poll matchup with Giuliani -- she'd end up ahead of Kerry, who got only 41 per cent of men in 2004. She also would end up ahead of Al Gore, who got 42 per cent of men in 2000.

Amazingly, if she got that 44 per cent of men in November, she'd be doing better than Bill Clinton, who got only 43 per cent of the male vote when he won his reelection race in 1996. According to the Center for the American Woman and Politics at Rutgers, Bill Clinton's 43 per cent of men is the best a Democratic candidate has done in the last 25 years.

That suggests Hillary's man problem is not very serious -- but it still might bring her defeat in November. Of course Kerry and Gore would have won if they'd had more votes from men, and Bill Clinton won only because Ross Perot siphoned off conservative (i.e. male) votes from the Republicans. The December polls show Hillary beating Giuliani, but only by one or two points -- too close for comfort -- and losing to McCain by a frightening five points.

Comments (32)

1. What have I learned here today? I guess I'm sexist if I don't like Hillary, and I'm racist if I don't like Obama! There's just no other explanation.

   Posted by MATTMAN at 01/02/2008 @ 6:17pm

2. WIENER: The December polls show Hillary.......losing to McCain by a frightening five points.

   Folks, IF McCain becomes the GOP Nominee, HRC will set all-time low for Male votes AND lose the Election by more than "five pointS"! From what I observe, HRC is getting a `pass' through these Primaries!

   "A lot of men don't like Hillary.", says Wiener.........Let's be more precise: A lot of men DON'T RESPECT Hillary!! She has done absolutely ZERO to earn my/our respect.......oops, take that back.....I RESPECT her turning $5k into $100k on cattle futures!

   For the never-divorced married men (there are still some of us out there), the never-married men and those who have cheated on their wives, there can be NO RESPECT for a woman who `stands by' her man for obviously POLITICAL PURPOSES.

   IF she wins the WH, it will HAVE TO BE by the highest % of women voters EVER!!

   Posted by Happy at 01/02/2008 @ 6:43pm

3. Why do so many men dislike Clinton? Is it simply because she's a woman? ... But that doesn't explain the Democratic men who won't vote for Clinton. Some of them disagree with her on the issues, especially her vote for the Iraq war - but for others, the explanation may lie in simple hostility to the idea of any woman as president.

   Care to float an estimate as to how many Democratic men have a "simple hostility to the idea of any woman as president". Two or 2 million?

   I don't like HRC. I don't like her policy positions. She stands for continuing the status quo on the foreign policy front - such as favoring Bills dropping of bombs in Kosovo, support for the Cuban embargo, etc.

   Her domestic positions are scarcely better. Her support of need a bigger, badder police state, capital punishment and little concern regarding civil liberties - see her position on game censorship as the extreme example of her being ill-informed. I'll not even get into her trade positions.

   But, even I didn't have these issues, why is it that it is alright to say, I don't like Dennis (or Joe or John or pick random white guy in Presidential race). But if it Hillary, Obama, perhaps Bill if he had been a contender, then it suddenly is about being female/black/hispanic? I'm not saying it is not a factor, but please - provide some sound facts that indicate it is a signficant factor and not just speculate about it.

   Posted by srjenkins at 01/02/2008 @ 6:48pm

4. I would have thought Hill's 'man problem' was Bill.

   Posted by skeletonman at 01/02/2008 @ 6:48pm

5. Perhaps folks should look at her positions on the issues instead of her gender. Other countries have been open minded enough to elect women to the highest offices of their respective countries....why not the United States. It is sad that this conversation even has to take place.....that we have to debate whether a woman or an African-American could ever win the presidency. All it shows is a complete lack of intelligence from many of our citizens, and the fact that we really haven't matured as a collective in the last fifty years.

   Posted by jpolston at 01/02/2008 @ 6:50pm

6. Posted by HAPPY 01/02/2008 @ 6:43pm

   Doubt it. If McCain were to win, I'd probably vote for the Democratic candidate - Clinton included. McCain is a big enough of a jerk that people will come out of the woodwork to sink him.

   Posted by srjenkins at 01/02/2008 @ 6:51pm

7. The Hillary campaign should take this issue very, very seriously. They simply cannot laugh it off. Very few men who will or who would may reasonalby vote democratic are not supporting Hillary because she is a female per se. It's much more complicated than that on a deeper level. I think in many men's subconscious. Hand wringing and poking fun of men will not change the reality on the ground.

   I suggest that this problem be taken on right away and a strategy in place to turn this problem around if it can at all. I would be stunned if Hillary did well amoung men in the Iowa caucus which is set for Jan. 3, 2007. By the way this article in my opinion is very superficial on a very important issue for the 2008 election.

   Posted by drewmpls at 01/02/2008 @ 7:48pm

8. If McCain were to win, I'd probably vote for the Democratic candidate - Clinton included. McCain is a big enough of a jerk that people will come out of the woodwork to sink him.

   Posted by SRJENKINS 01/02/2008 @ 6:51pm

   On another thread a few days back, you said the same thing.....and frankly, I believe you and 3/4 of all (now) anti-HRC folks WILL VOTE for her...furthermore, sorry to say, practicality rules and principles don't mean squat! In the end, you WILL DO as MASK and I predict....doesn't mean HRC/Dem will win the WH.....business as usual!!

   Posted by Happy at 01/02/2008 @ 7:57pm

9. But that doesn't explain the Democratic men who won't vote for Clinton. Some of them disagree with her on the issues, especially her vote for the Iraq war--but for others, the explanation may lie in simple hostility to the idea of any woman as president.

   Democratic men don't trust her. She let Bill get sucked off in the Oval Office by another woman in a public spectacle and didn't divorce him. I know this sounds crude, but most "progressive" men could not imagine their wife putting up with that shit unless she was so blinded by ambition to be dangerous.

   And then there is the "issue" of judgment. Obama has done a great job of pointing our Hillary's flawed judgment on a number of issues, from Iraq, Iran, and now Pakistan. She seems to be following the "conventional wisdom" rather than bringing a fresh approach that is capable of success.

   Finally, her "secrecy" and lack of transparency is troubling to the progressive male. A "woman" that hides things from them cannot be trusted, and Hillary has chosen to hide her record as First Lady and is opposed to disclosing the source and recipient of pork-barrel earmarks. The "sneaky woman" thing simply does not play well with the progressive male, and Hillary simply does not understand this at all.

   Posted by Metteyya at 01/02/2008 @ 8:01pm

10. SRJ,

    BTW, IF HRC is the Dem Nominee, we can all agree that female turnout will be higher than-average, perhaps even setting a multi-decade high. On the other hand, don't be surprised that a lot more MEN "will come out of the woodwork" expressly to sink HER.

    There is no doubt in my mind that McCain sincerely recognize the mistakes he made in opposing the Bush tax cuts....the economic performance speaks for itself. Only die-hard Libs/Socialists/Commies can read them as "the Sun rises from the West". I don't deny the inequality but that's just the way it is where knowledge and computer skills are simply much more valuable than manual no-skill jobs. Stop Illegal Immigration to help those that don't have the `tools' education provides.

    Posted by Happy at 01/02/2008 @ 8:06pm

11. Whoa, whoa, whoa.....did I just read this right?!?!?

    "If McCain were to win, I'd probably vote for the Democratic candidate - Clinton included."-----Posted by SRJENKINS 01/02/2008 @ 6:51pm

    SRJ saying that (if there were an obnoxious enough Repub opponent) he'd sell out and vote for a corporatist, Repub-lite Dem!?!?!?

    Posted by Mask at 01/02/2008 @ 8:36pm

12. Why do men not like Hillary? Because there is little, if anything, to like about her.

    I would gladly vote for any qualified candidate that has a track record and platform that is aligned with progressive values. The problem for Hillary and the DLC-voting pattern Senator from Illinois is that neither have much experience and their record isn't very good.

    It's not about who they are by birth- it's about what they are by behavior, in office.

    If the Democrats select Hillary you will have at least 4 more years of NeoCon Republicanism regardless of which candidate is selected.

    Posted by NoPCZone at 01/02/2008 @ 9:42pm

13. SRJ saying that (if there were an obnoxious enough Repub opponent) he'd sell out and vote for a corporatist, Repub-lite Dem!?!?!?

    Posted by MASK 01/02/2008 @ 8:36pm

    Little did SRJ know, he sure Made Your Day! Sure you'll treasure it in your archive!

    Posted by Happy at 01/02/2008 @ 9:44pm

14. Posted by HAPPY 01/02/2008 @ 9:44pm

    No, SRJ pretty honest. If he says something, he''ll stand by it.

    And he's never insulted my wife!

    Posted by Mask at 01/02/2008 @ 9:52pm

15. And he's never insulted my wife!

    Posted by MASK 01/02/2008 @ 9:52pm

    Ok, let's be HONEST and find out how `hurt' you were by my so-called insult? or Your wife?

    You might as well Re-Post my insult....shows you how honest I am as to its lethality! Poor, sensitive MASK!

    Posted by Happy at 01/02/2008 @ 10:34pm

16. Democratic men don't trust her. She let Bill get sucked off in the Oval Office by another woman in a public spectacle and didn't divorce him. I know this sounds crude, but most "progressive" men could not imagine their wife putting up with that shit unless she was so blinded by ambition to be dangerous.

    unbelievable tripe. your understanding of human relations is entirely lacking. some day you will grow up, not mature, but grow up.

    Posted by brannigan at 01/02/2008 @ 10:38pm

17. I would have thought Hill's 'man problem' was Bill.

    Posted by SKELETONMAN 01/02/2008 @ 6:48pm

    i woulda thunk it was hillary.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/02/2008 @ 11:02pm

18. The seven or eight Dems are better than any Rep, and Hillary included. The reason is only one, Reps don't have social conscience, except Huckabee to some extent.

    Hillary is not my favorite, but the first priority is an administration that will reach to the people. And of course she is better than hawkish McCain. As I've said before, if for her ambition the Dems loose the race, she and Bill will carry that load through to the end of their lives.

    Posted by Frank42 at 01/03/2008 @ 12:12am

19. Come on! McCain is a bitter old man. And anyone here who's an ex-troop knows that flyboys don't know squat about what goes on on the ground. I'm a male who's not voting for her in the primary, but sure will be in the Presidential if she's the democratic candidate. Anyone but the Republican'ts! Iran-Contra, Yellow Cake, District Attorneys... Oh, but Bill got a hummer! Yeah, that just as bad right? RIGHT!

    Posted by Dethtol at 01/03/2008 @ 12:33am

20. January 03, 2008

    John McCain: The Old Warhorse

    By Victor Davis Hanson

    Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.,.......is surging back....

    Liberals once flirted with McCain as a maverick.....

    Now, though, they have little good to say about him. McCain never gave up on the unpopular Iraq war, loudly calling for both the appointment of Gen. David Petraeus and a surge of additional troops. His promises to cut spending rather than to raise taxes aren't exactly endearing to Democrats.

    Conservatives can't even count all the ways they have soured on him.......

    Why, then, has this old warhorse trotted back into the Republican race?

    There are a number of good reasons.......

    First, in a campaign year of crass political reinventions, McCain does not flip-flop......at his age, and after what he went through in Vietnam, there is no reason to begin trimming the truth now.

    To those more liberal, McCain insists that the surge is working and we will secure Iraq......

    Second, McCain has the most diverse experience of any of the candidates in either party.....no one would question McCain's far greater breadth of service.....

    Third, we are still in a war on several fronts...

    Obama ludicrously associated her death with the Iraq war. Huckabee, in Jimmy Carter fashion, apologized to Pakistan for the assassination - although he did not explain why. Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson demanded that Gen. Musharraf step down - as if we can snap our fingers and choose nuclear Pakistan's leaders.

    McCain in contrast kept his cool......

    I don't know whether plain-speaking John McCain will win the presidency. But so far he's proved the most experienced of the candidates, and he's run the most principled and honest of the campaigns. Other candidates may be younger, better financed and more charismatic; none has more earned America's trust.

    Posted by Happy at 01/03/2008 @ 01:13am

21. I'm a little tired of the message that a man must be sexist if he doesn't support Hillary for president. Come on, enough of this misogynistic baiting. Maybe some men won't vote for her because she is a woman. I don't like her because she is a totally corporate politician and a shill for AIPAC. She has no core principles, progressive or otherwise, and will say whatever she thinks will help her get elected. I would WELCOME some female energy in the highest office in the land. Barbara Boxer or Barbara Lee, anyone? These are women who have SOLID progressive credentials. Hillary is solid on NOTHING other than craving to be the first female president. That's not good enough for me. I'm going with Edwards this time around. He talks the talk. I'll have to wait to see if he walks the walk.

    Posted by grejambri at 01/03/2008 @ 01:41am

22. Coverage of the presidential candidates around here seems to me to focus a little bit to much on the strategic. Dennis Kucinich's campaign is called Quixotean because he actually has principles and sticks to them and much effort goes into calculating Hillary and Obama's "electability". Why are people not asking themselves if they really want an opportunist like Hillary in the White House. Yes, her main base is women, but that is precisely the problem. Women, just like men, come from all sides of the political spectrum and so to get all women to vote for her she goes for the Republican women too. Maybe that's why she seems to have no firm position on any matter; she's not after any particular political set of voters, she's after women. Vote for Hillary and the outcome will simply be more of the same. Why not go for somebody who actually means to live up to the moniker of Democrat? Kucinich, anyone?

    Posted by Szymoon at 01/03/2008 @ 03:44am

23. To all Iowan's standing for Joe Biden tonight, thank you. And, please know that there are many of us who are standing with you all around the country (& the world). You can be proud to be caucusing for the greatest candidate both parties have to offer. Again, thank you.

    Posted by csjantho at 01/03/2008 @ 05:04am

24. They are all part of the system that's the crux of the problem, but Hillary Clinton more than most. Don Polly

    Posted by donpolly at 01/03/2008 @ 05:50am

25. I think Clinton's gender might actually have been helping her up to this point. As has been pointed out repeatedly here and elsewhere, she is far from being the strongest or most interesting or most inspiring Dem candidate. Most progressives don't want her, and many mainstream Dems don't trust her.

    But because she's a woman who's had success and who has at least a sheen of that elusive 'electibility,' she appeals to a lot of women and some men who are 'ready' for a woman president. I would also love to have a woman president some day. But not strictly for the fact of being a woman, and certainly not Clinton.

    I don't think that dem men are less likely to vote for her because she's a woman, but because she's a bad candidate and because they are less likely to have a personal connection to her. And I think one reason for her drop in the polls over the last several weeks has been that more and more of her early supporters have realized that her being a so-called inspirational woman is just not enough.

    Posted by Rintrah at 01/03/2008 @ 08:25am

26. Posted by HAPPY 01/02/2008 @ 10:34pm

    Sorry, HAPP...went to bed withut seeing your response. Here ya go--

    Comments for "Young Republican, Seeking Candidate" Posted by Cora Currier at 10/10/2007 @ 2:11pm | Email This Post

    (to MASK) "...his wife looks like one of them dogs Michael Vick keeps (but not for long) :-)"----Posted by HAPPY 10/11/2007 @ 12:17am

    Posted by Mask at 01/03/2008 @ 09:19am

27. What a crock. Clinton doesn't have a "man" problem.....more to the point is that the electorate has a "woman" problem. The only thing I can see that Clinton has got going for her is the novelty of having a first woman president. Not too many men I know are going to vote for a woman just because she is a woman, but there are plenty of women out there who will vote for her based on gender rather than her record.

    Where qualified, men do not having a problem putting a woman in office. In this election, it's Clinton's exploiting the fact she was first lady and is a woman as her only selling points that make her unattractive. Let's not buy into the gender bias crap that the Clinton campaign would like us to believe, which is solely designed to motivate women voters to vote for her based on gender -- and a political spin myth she is fostering.

    Posted by OneVote at 01/03/2008 @ 10:30am

28. Posted by HAPPY 01/02/2008 @ 7:57pm

    ...practicality rules and principles don't mean squat! In the end, you WILL DO as MASK and I predict....doesn't mean HRC/Dem will win the WH.....business as usual!!

    In principle, I am a pacifist based on the belief that violence only begets more violence. But there are occasions, where some force has to be used to stop violence. What makes something violent is when it is done to injure or abuse, and the particular problem is that the use of any force, even that which is done with the intent of preventing violence, often turns into a form of violence.

    In principle, I am also an anarchist based on the belief that small groups of people are in the best position to make their own decisions and government that is more sophisticated than the kind used by small groups is ultimately authority based on some kind of violence.

    Which brings us to the topic at hand, a McCain vs Clinton race. McCain can only be described as cavalier when he sings his songs about bombing Iran, his providing of cover for the Bush administration's use of torture, his recent pandering to the religious right who he used to call "agents of intolerance", and so forth.

    The principle problem with McCain is his "Strategy for Victory in Iraq". He lists this in the middle of his issues behind his tax cuts (how you going to pay for all that victory John?), reigning in government spending (isn't the military government spending?), concern for human life (aren't the people we are aiming our weapons at and torturing human life John? Or are they just gooks?), and lobbying and ethics reform (two words: Keating Five).

    As bad as HRC is, McCain is orders of magnitude worse. I generally don't subscribe to a "lessor of two evils" mentality because it is still voting for evil, but there is enough of a difference between McCain and any Democratic candidate that I'd go against my anarchist principles and vote for my pacifist ones.

    Posted by srjenkins at 01/03/2008 @ 10:43am

29. Posted by BRANNIGAN 01/02/2008 @ 10:38pm

    unbelievable tripe.

    Says about it all, really. Please take a moment to speak for yourself, rather than most "progressive" men.

    Posted by srjenkins at 01/03/2008 @ 10:48am

30. Men don't like Hillary. Could that be because she is a lying sack of shit?

    Posted by abell12ct at 01/03/2008 @ 12:52pm

31. Men don't like Hillary. Could that be because she is a lying sack of shit?

    Posted by ABELL12CT 01/03/2008 @ 12:52pm

    -------------

    Hmmm, you started me thinking...

    Posted by chinpoko at 01/03/2008 @ 4:11pm

32. I think its a big mistake to suggest men don't like Hillary Clinton. People don't like Hillary Clinton (having been born in 1970, I'd rate her as the single most unlikable political figure of my lifetime). The three women I'm closest too ie., my wife, my mother, and my ex-wife, are all registered Democrats who intend to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2008 (just as they did in 2004) unless that nominee is Hillary Clinton, in which case all three of them will probably vote Republican. I think there are a LOT of people out there, Democrats and independents, of both sexes, who feel similarly (I'm an anti-war Republican who is pulling for the Democrats myself, assuming Ron Paul fails that is, but if the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, I'll vote for someone other than her, or whichever neo-con stooge manages to capture the GOP nomination - just like I voted for Ralph Nader over Kerry & Bush).

    To suggest that men dislike Hillary Clinton because they're sexist is ludicrous. Men dislike Hillary Clinton for the same reason women do; intense dislike is a perfectly natural and healthy response to encountering such a horrid person.

    Posted by Kevin_OKeeffe at 01/07/2008 @ 09:07am