November Surprise?

The US-backed special tribunal in Baghdad signalled Monday that it will likely delay a verdict in the first trial of Saddam Hussein to November 5. Why hasn't the mainstream media connected the dots between the Saddam's judgment day and the midterm elections?

Here's how the story was reported pretty much everywhere: "An Iraqi court trying Saddam Hussein for the killing of Shi'ite villagers in the 1980s could deliver a verdict on November 5, officials said, a ruling which could send the ousted leader to the gallows…"

A possible death-sentence for Saddam and his top lieutenants on November 5? Now, shouldn't that raise a few eyebrows somewhere? If you happen to have a calendar close at hand, pull it over and take a quick look. That verdict would then come, curiously enough, just two days before the midterm elections. It's the sort of thing that--you would think--that any reporter with knowledge of the US election cycle (no less of how Karl Rove has worked these last years) would at least note in an article. But no, you can search high and low without finding a reference to this in the mainstream media.

I must admit I hadn't thought about this myself until a friend forwarded me "No Comment," the e-mail newsletter that Scott Horton sends out from time to time. ("It's intended as ironic. All I do is comment.") Horton, who likes to identify himself in his newsletter as an "obscure New York lawyer," is actually an adjunct professor at the Columbia University Law School, as well as chairman of the International Law Committee at the New York City Bar Association. He makes frequent trips to Iraq, working as an attorney "representing arrested local-hire reporters of US media."

Once he had pointed out the timing in his newsletter, I couldn't get it out of my head and, since a Google search and a spin through various mainstream articles on the changed verdict date, brought up only a couple of passing mentions online of its relationship to the US elections, I called Horton directly. Here's what he had to say when I asked whether he thought Karl Rove might have anything to do with this:

"For sure. That November 5 date is designed to show some progress in Iraq. This is the last full news-cycle day in the US before the elections. It'll be Monday. And the American public will see Saddam condemned to death and see it as a positive thing.

"When you look at polling figures," Horton said," there have been three significant spike points. One was the date on which Saddam was captured. The second was the purple fingers election. The third was Zarqawi being killed. Based on those three, it's easy to project that they will get a mild bump out of this.

"After all, almost every newspaper reserves space for Iraq reporting every day. This just assures that they will have a positive news story to feature. I find it amazing not that journalists don't editorialize on this, but that they report the story without even noting that this is right before the midterm elections. That's pretty amazing to me!

"This is not coincidence," he continued. "Nothing in Iraq that's set up this far in advance is coincidental. Look at Michael Gordon's book Cobra II. One of the points he drives home is how everything in the battle for Baghdad was scripted for US media consumption.

"In fact, in my experience, everything that comes out of Baghdad is very carefully prepared for American domestic consumption.

"As for Saddam's trial itself, I've spoken with dozens of lawyers and judges in Iraq and they have a uniformly very negative opinion of this special tribunal. Everybody -- pretty consistently across the board, and despite the fact that there's no love lost for Saddam himself--has a high level of irritation about the tribunal. Judges have said to me, ‘I wouldn't serve on that. I wouldn't have anything to do with it. It's a blot on our country.' Their main point of criticism is its lack of independence. There is a team of American lawyers working as special legal advisors out of the US embassy, who drive the whole thing. They have been involved in preparing the case and overseeing it from the beginning. The trial, which is shown on TV, has mild entertainment value for Iraqis, but they refer to it regularly as an American puppet theater."

Still, scheduling the announcement of what will almost certainly be a future execution to give yourself one last shot at a bump in the polls?

Welcome to Bushworld.

[If you are interested in receiving Scott Horton's "No Comment," you can request it at Shorton99@aol.com.]

Comments (21)

1. Oh, no - how conspiratorial. You dont think that the independent judicial system of the sovereign democratic nation of Iraq would take orders from Emperor Bush?

   Posted by LiberalPride at 10/17/2006 @ 5:47pm

2. I identified this as the November surprise right away. I'm expecting the death sentence to be followed by a speech by Bush the day before the election. I think there is some risk to the Republicans, however, in that the verdict and sentence will cause more violence in Baghdad. Hussein does have the right to appeal, but that point will probably get lost in the shuffle.

   Posted by sschwarz23 at 10/17/2006 @ 6:27pm

3. Is there anything Karl Rove can't do? That son of a bitch is superhuman!

   Posted by Person at 10/17/2006 @ 10:20pm

4. he can't find his soul

   Posted by Will C. at 10/17/2006 @ 10:44pm

5. Posted by WILL C. 10/17/2006 @ 10:44pm

   The Devil has no soul.

   Hugo Chavez was wrong about who was the Devil.

   Posted by BlueTexan at 10/17/2006 @ 10:54pm

6. All our leaders failed us, they gave up Habeous Corpus. They have made the President an absolute Dictator. They did nothing.

   There was a Show, but in the end he, again got everything he wanted. Where the Hell is the outrage at the Rape of our Constitution and the blatant stacking of our supreme court?

   Anyone?

   Posted by nortonnobnick at 10/18/2006 @ 01:30am

7. But will the numbnuts of America fall for something so blatantly transparent? Has it gotten that pathetic?

   Posted by leftofcenter at 10/18/2006 @ 11:14am

8. No one puts the lie to the myth of the "liberal media" better than the MSM itself.

   Posted by drhammer at 10/18/2006 @ 11:27am

9. Admittedly I am biased in favor of Saddam Hussein and the Arab World but how could anyone NOT recognize that November 5 is two days before the midterm elections? My JUSTICE page for your entertainment -- be sure your speakers are turned on:

   http://topsecret10021.tripod.com/jeansfavorites/id7.html

   Posted by ciscokid10021 at 10/18/2006 @ 1:36pm

10. norton:"Where the Hell is the outrage at the Rape of our Constitution and the blatant stacking of our supreme court?

    outrage on the first, but NOT the second. Bush was entirely within his rights in appointing whomever he likes to the supreme court, subject to consent of the congress.

    the stacking of the supreme court that you refer to has to do with expanding the numbers of judges on the supreme court, which was attempted, and shot down, by a previous president.

    Posted by johannesrolf at 10/18/2006 @ 1:37pm

11. (for clarity)...which was attempted,, by a previous president.and shot down by the court.

    Posted by johannesrolf at 10/18/2006 @ 1:43pm

12. If the Hussein verdict had come 2 years ago, maybe even a year ago, it would have been crippling, but at this point do you really think finding out Hussein's going to get the death penalty is really going to convince a large portion of the electorate that the Iraq War made sense? Part of the reason why the three indicents created favorable spikes was because each of them seemed to have the potential to stop the fighting but does anyone really think that Hussein's verdict will have any impact on the war? If anything, the verdict might highlight what a mess we've gotten ourselves into, especially if there's some wave of violence right before or around it.

    Posted by guscat at 10/18/2006 @ 9:39pm

13. OH, pulllease He sent Congress the woman who wrote him fan mail, and......gonzo. He got his torture memo. He has been fast and furious with those "signing statements" and now he has Habeos Corpus too. And the Supreme's are o.k. with this?

    Meanwhile, back on Captiol Hill hearings continue into Republican after Republican on issues of Ethics, Accountability, Guardianship, and Moral Responsibility.

    I saw a lot coming, but I must admit I never saw the Gay Mafia coming, lol. Im very amused, the quote; "Hoisted on their own Petard" came to mind.

    And the beat goes on.....

    Posted by nortonnobnick at 10/19/2006 @ 01:22am

14. in webspeak that would be HOOP.

    Posted by nortonnobnick at 10/19/2006 @ 01:24am

15. Regarding the delay of Sadam's verdict untill immediately before our election, I'm inclined to agree with the assessment that a finding of guilty will bring on a notable increase in the violence there, probably cancelling any bounce for Bush in the polls.

    N. Khoury

    Posted by Nancy Khoury at 10/19/2006 @ 11:20am

16. WHAT A SHAME!!! Can anyone at The Nation give a reasonable explanation for why you did not take a stand AGAINST the OBVIOUS theft of the 2004 election when it was perpetrated... instead of attempting to discredit that "conspiracy theory" ??????????????? SEE http://baltimorechronicle.com/2006/100406MILLER.html

    Posted by Nancy Khoury at 10/19/2006 @ 11:43am

17. I am currently enrolled in a Critical Thinking course as a college Senior. In the class, we are taught to be very suspicious of essays and articles that use Ad Hominum attacks and sources that may have biased opinions. Perhaps you should enroll in a similar course to learn that the terms "Bushies" and "Bushworld" are indeed Ad Hominum attacks and quoting the author of a new book that is critical of the Bush Administration as a "reliable" source is not the best way to convince anyone of your argument. Unless of course, your readers prefer to take your case at face value, which most thinking people would be loath to do.

    Regards,

    Posted by John Downing at 10/19/2006 @ 12:07pm

18. Downing, it's ad hominem. I hope your critical thinking extends to the pronouncements of this mis-administration, not to mention Faux news.

    Posted by johannesrolf at 10/19/2006 @ 12:10pm

19. let's all make sure Rove gets a real November surprise.

    Posted by johannesrolf at 10/19/2006 @ 1:24pm

20. I would not get too worked up about November 5th. As manipulative as this White House is... they cannot control the reaction on the street. I just pray our people get out of the way when all hell breaks loose.

    Posted by signotimes at 10/20/2006 @ 2:17pm

21. The news headline On Nov 6 for the Saddam verdict should be titled - Former Reagan/Bush CIA Operative convicted of mass murder, sentenced to hang.

    Posted by cadreamin at 10/20/2006 @ 11:42pm