Why Republicans Won't Oppose the Stimulus

Oh sure, they'll oppose it. They'll say it's too expensive, that it won't work, that it will be wasteful. Some will vote against it, though given the popularity of both Obama and the stimulus itself, less than you might think.

But their heart won't be in it.

Here's my sense of their long-term strategy. This isn't based on anything other than observation and chatting around the Capitol. I think they'll let the stimulus pass and, indeed will be quite fine with it being very big. Much bigger than it is now: a trillion dollars or more. Because once the stimulus passes, Republicans are going to say: OK. We're done. Meaning: no more money. They'll point to the $700 billion for the TARP, plus the $1 trillion for the stimulus, and they'll say: we've spent all the money there is to be spent. There's no money for healthcare. There's no money for anything, really except the Pentagon. They'll run against deficits, waste and bailout nation.

I'm not sure this argument is going to work - a lot depends on what the economy is doing - but it's simple, clear and intuitively appealing. And if you're a Republican, you much rather see Obama and the Democrats spend money on infrastructure, and projects with expiring time horizons, than in creating a universal health care system that voters will have Democrats to thank for the next generation. The real danger of this moment for the Republicans is structural reform, fundamental changes to the American welfare state, or labor law, or regulation of carbon. That's where we'll see the big league, scratch and claw, any means necessary opposition. But on the stimulus? Not so much.

Comments (30)

1. Really with any plan the Republicans say, "no!"

   Obama proposes a moderate plan with a bunch of tax cuts and public-private partnerships, the Republicans say, "NO!"

   Obama proposes a left wing plan with WPA style programs, nationalizations, and a plan that will carry us further than simply reducing 11% employment to 8% employment but down to 3%, the Republicans say, "NO!"

   But you are right that they are not going to oppose the first plan and the only option we have to get us out of our economic meltdown. Republicans have no solutions to offer themselves.

   What are they going to do give everyone a three hundred dollar check like last time?

   That did nothing. Can you feel its effects? I can't.

   But I would also urge them not to spend this money on tax cuts - even tax cuts for green energy.

   Why offer tax cuts when we are providing the demand that green energy companies need to thrive and grow?

   I would also warn against hand outs without something in return. Will the people own these solar panels and wind turbines or is this a giveaway to T. Boone? Do we get preferred stock in these companies? What kind of return other than better environmental policy do we get?

   I am also uneasy about public-private partnerships. Again it stems from impact of the spending - do we gain from increasing the profit margins of companies when the people could develop their own programs through their government cutting out the cost of bonuses and golden parachutes.

   I want to see a recovery package that works and that means that it needs to be spent wisely so we see the biggest bang for our buck (i.e. the highest multiplier) and a large one that will fill the hole left by a decimated GDP.

   Thanks for your work Chris!

   Posted by Dino-bizot_armageddon at 01/15/2009 @ 01:29am

2. Really with any plan the Republicans say, "no!"

   Obama proposes a moderate plan with a bunch of tax cuts and public-private partnerships, the Republicans say, "NO!"

   Obama proposes a left wing plan with WPA style programs, nationalizations, and a plan that will carry us further than simply reducing 11% employment to 8% employment but down to 3%, the Republicans say, "NO!"

   But you are right that they are not going to oppose the first plan and the only option we have to get us out of our economic meltdown. Republicans have no solutions to offer themselves.

   What are they going to do give everyone a three hundred dollar check like last time?

   That did nothing. Can you feel its effects? I can't.

   But I would also urge them not to spend this money on tax cuts - even tax cuts for green energy.

   Why offer tax cuts when we are providing the demand that green energy companies need to thrive and grow?

   I would also warn against hand outs without something in return. Will the people own these solar panels and wind turbines or is this a giveaway to T. Boone? Do we get preferred stock in these companies? What kind of return other than better environmental policy do we get?

   I am also uneasy about public-private partnerships. Again it stems from impact of the spending - do we gain from increasing the profit margins of companies when the people could develop their own programs through their government cutting out the cost of bonuses and golden parachutes.

   I want to see a recovery package that works and that means that it needs to be spent wisely so we see the biggest bang for our buck (i.e. the highest multiplier) and a large one that will fill the hole left by a decimated GDP.

   Thanks for your work Chris!

   Posted by Dino-bizot_armageddon at 01/15/2009 @ 01:29am

3. sorry about that chris didn't know it took so long for the site to acknowledge posts.

   Posted by Dino-bizot_armageddon at 01/15/2009 @ 01:39am

4. Essentially right, Mr Hayes.

   They'll TALK opposition a lot, but when the vote comes, Repub House members in "Purplish" districts will vote for it and maybe a few "Reddish" tinted ones.

   Frankly at this point, their only hope is that most Americans develop short-term memory problems (and long-term memory problems for 2010 and 2012).

   Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 07:19am

5. Frankly at this point, their only hope is that most Americans develop short-term memory problems (and long-term memory problems for 2010 and 2012).

   Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 07:19am | ignore this person | warn this person

   oh indeed you hit the nail on the head.

   the modern republican party depends upon the marching moron, jay walking class to either vote stupidly for their own veiled destruction (ie tune their trivia filled, critically thinking incapable, ADD attention to the satano-aynrando lie spinners) or to sit at home watching idol and not voting at all. ignorance is the best friend of the republican party.

   problem is that now many of these very same marching morons are being forced to turn their attention to something other than trivialities and personal issues by the horrible economic mess we are in, which is largely the result of the policies of irresponsible consumerism (last few decades) and incompetant leadership (last 8 years at least) and are dimly aware (though they could in no way give any specifics) that the culpability lies largely on the right side of the ailse.

   and of course with the man/woman in the mirror whose willful, greedy, vain, slothful ignorance enabled those who should know better to wreak this havoc.

   but once the marching morons get something into their dullard heads it tends to stay there for a while and nothing short of massive direct undeniable personal experience will get it out, so...

   perhaps they will put their faith in the more or less relatively decent, responsible types for quite some time.

   this politiks and ecomonics stuff is hard! takes time away from thinkin about trivial stupidities!

   Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/15/2009 @ 08:26am

6. I don't know what they are making such a big deal about it anyway, the last lot of money has been spent and nobody knows where that has gone!!! This time round at least PE Obama is putting out documentation as to where the money is going..I'm sure he will follow through to make sure it is used for the purpose it was intended for. I'd like to know where all the Republican anger was when this country was going down the tubes over the last few years...didn't hear many complaints about Fiscal restraint when all their buddies were making a killing. It's a bit like the shutting the stable gate when the horse has already bolted!!

   Posted by Caj at 01/15/2009 @ 08:45am

7. Before we bash the Republicans lets remember that it was the Clinton administration that took the the walls between banking and the stock market without which both would be more robust right now. I opposse big government and socialism which is where we are heading with this stimulus package and the incoming president. Maybe if Americans stop complaining about big business and accepted some of the responsibility. People whine about how bad things are and unemployment while they drive their foreign car to Walmart. Why don't we just mail our checks directly to China and quit pretending we care about American workers or American business. How about owning up to our faults instead of looking for more gov't spending and an ever increasing budget shortfall. It is capitalism and not socialism that has made America the place it is today, and if you haven't travelled outsid of this country don't even begin to say how bad it is here.

   Posted by SilenceDogoode at 01/15/2009 @ 09:21am

8. unless you fling yourselves wholeheartly in the nanny state it will bring!

   Posted by comanchenation at 01/15/2009 @ 12:53am

   ever heard of dean baker?

   read this:

   The Conservative Nanny State

   How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer

   by Dean Baker, published May 2006

   In his new book, economist Dean Baker debunks the myth that conservatives favor the market over government intervention. In fact, conservatives rely on a range of "nanny state" policies that ensure the rich get richer while leaving most Americans worse off. It's time for the rules to change. Sound economic policy should harness the market in ways that produce desirable social outcomes – decent wages, good jobs and affordable health care.

   you can read the book free, here:

   http://www.conservativenannystate.org/

   Posted by frosty zoom at 01/15/2009 @ 09:33am

9. Frankly at this point, their only hope is that most Americans develop short-term memory problems (and long-term memory problems for 2010 and 2012).

   Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 07:19am

   uh oh..........

   Posted by frosty zoom at 01/15/2009 @ 09:35am

10. Posted by SilenceDogoode at 01/15/2009 @ 09:21am

    Mr. Franklin?

    Posted by Benchrest at 01/15/2009 @ 09:35am

11. "The Undemocratic congress stimulis package will be nothing more than a PORK BARREL loading dock for your future tax dollars and you will NOT garner one benefit from it unless you fling yourselves wholeheartly in the nanny state it will bring!"

    Speaking of pork barrels for my tax dollars, aren't we still in Iraq?

    Posted by onthehelm at 01/15/2009 @ 09:38am

12. Posted by SilenceDogoode at 01/15/2009 @ 09:21am | ignore this person | warn this person

    oh clinton at least tacitly supported the very uber ideological satano-aynrando skewed capitalist ideology that is ultimately responsible for this mes, IMO...

    but at least he was technically competant and left with a federal surplus budget. he may have lied through his teeth about where he was putting mr. winky, but he did not lie us into a horrible unneeded war, did not cut the tax base at the same time they increased spending....

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/15/2009 @ 09:57am

13. It is capitalism and not socialism that has made America the place it is today, and if you haven't travelled outsid of this country don't even begin to say how bad it is here.

    Posted by SilenceDogoode at 01/15/2009 @ 09:21am

    Well, we sure have had a great old time under Bush for the past 8 years, so I don't know how you can't put most of the blame on the Republican party! Anything the Dems wanted to pass into law, Bush would veto it I don't think he took into consideration most of the time what was good for the country...lets veto anyway was his motto!!! It seems as if you feel we should just continue along the same old path as Bush, don't change what we have....well that's really worked out well for us so far wouldn't you say? The problem has been no accountability for all these companies over the years, they have been left to do what they like with no oversight at all and that has been a Republican mistake. Obama wants to have more transparency in his administration and about time too, we should know what is going on...all this cloak and dagger stuff from Bush has got us into this mess. If you think Capitalism is what has made America what it is today then all I can say is you can keep it.....if this is how you think the country should look under Capitalism and the state we are in you are more than welcome to it.

    Posted by Caj at 01/15/2009 @ 10:24am

14. Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/15/2009 @ 08:26am

    Rush and Sean and Glenn and O'Loufa will try to raise up the social issues again, for a while. Even the SJCHERMAK types can't be convinced that Republicans are "fiscal conservatives again"...so scaring them about "teaching our kids to be gay" or "all that killing of babies at 8 months gestation" will have to keep them fired up for a while.

    Then as 2010 closes in, they can try again with "Trillions in debt is bad...we Republicans would NEVER do something like that...we promise!"

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/15/2009 @ 09:35am

    Don't get snotty again about Americans, Frosty....or I'll ask who's running YOUR country now and who's going to run ours next Tuesday!!! heheh

    Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 10:59am

15. Why Republicans Won't Oppose the Stimulus

    Because they can't..Pelosi changed the rules in the House and the Repubs will be lucky to get an opinion out...PLUS, the MSM will never cover them....

    When the Repubs had the House one would have thought the Dems ran the place since they were the ones always seen on TV..you will not see the MSM do the same as they did for their bosses in the Dem Party.

    Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 11:11am

16. I'd like to know where all the Republican anger was when this country was going down the tubes over the last few years...didn't hear many complaints about Fiscal restraint when all their buddies were making a killing. It's a bit like the shutting the stable gate when the horse has already bolted!!

    Posted by Caj at 01/15/2009 @ 08:45am |

    Their anger was drowned out by B Frank and Maxine Waters, et al, on c-span, look it up...where they were decrying the need for new regulations on fannie and freddie, but the congress called them racists, and praesed those running fannie and freddie(Johnson, who did make millions, but thats OK he's a dem)...and the lap dogs in the MSM went along..and promptly forgot the demands for new regs and changes because they came from repubs...and now those who caused the collapse have been given the purse to fix it.

    good luck.

    Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 11:17am

17. It is capitalism and not socialism that has made America the place it is today, and if you haven't travelled outsid of this country don't even begin to say how bad it is here.

    Posted by SilenceDogoode at 01/15/2009 @ 09:21am

    This is true...travel out of the country and you will see how ridiculous the hard left is here...Capitalism is on the march in the fastest growing countrys on earth and socialism is rampid in all the slow or declining economys..like Europe and the US...

    Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 11:21am

18. It's odd to hear people still talking about the grand concepts of Socialism and Capitalism as if they actually exist in their 'pure' forms... anywhere in the world.

    Removing regulations favors the already wealthy.

    Establishing limits to the acceleration and top speed of accumulation of capital... and supporting national infrastructure with the proceeds... favors everyone.

    Creating a 'welfare state' eventually undercuts national pride by resisting 'self realization'...

    But the fact remains... that Socialism and Capitalism are everywhere and always to be engaged... and in their relationship, we must make them fruitful for all our economic classes.

    Any talk of one or the other belongs in a history department.

    Posted by ttr at 01/15/2009 @ 11:27am

19. Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 10:59am | ignore this person | warn this person

    how bout flag burning? or "the war on christmas"?

    jeez - if its not one stupid knee jerk non issue its another with these types...

    and now let us be prepared for interminable lectures from the pompous blowhards about the "hard realities of economics" as per aynrandian ubercapitalist ideological canon!

    funny how they criticize and marxist determinism and yet fail to see their own ideological shackles.

    i got yer hard realities of economics - run shit the way we've run shit the last few years and LOOK AT THE RESULT!!!!

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/15/2009 @ 11:39am

20. This is true...travel out of the country and you will see how ridiculous the hard left is here...Capitalism is on the march in the fastest growing countrys on earth and socialism is rampid in all the slow or declining economys..like Europe and the US... Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 11:21am

    You wanna know why that is? Capitalism is great for a new economy that is just budding. The problem is Capitalism is not sustainable. It needs perpetual growth to survive and is not possible to have perpetual growth in an economy. Sooner or later you run out of things to sell. You then have to turn towards a sustainable economy instead of one made for growth.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 01/15/2009 @ 12:06pm

21. ". The problem is Capitalism is not sustainable."

    Sure it is, the problem is it is always regulated by those who do not contribute to it and want to manage it without understanding how it works...

    It must be regulated for sure, but by people who know it and our schools teach nothing about economics to anyone except the govt is great and fair.

    Would you want to be operated on by someone who has yeats of experience on reading and lecturing on heart surgury, but has never cut a turkey on Thanksgiving?

    That is Washington..

    Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 12:13pm

22. Sooner or later you run out of things to sell. You then have to turn towards a sustainable economy instead of one made for growth.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 01/15/2009 @ 12:06pm

    Rubish taught in public school and reflects a toal lack of understanding of markets, innovators, capitalism and growth.

    You obviously, are not an entrepeneur nor a businessman.

    You should be on Donnie Deutsch show just to let the people who make the econmy grow and work see what they are up against...as if we do not aready know.

    Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 12:17pm

23. Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/15/2009 @ 11:39am

    Oh, sure. "War on Christmas" apparently in a cease-fire last month (Or O'Loufa Bill realized how silly and obviously "sour grapes" it would sound)....but it'll come back.

    Flag-burning, gay marriage, late-term abortion, prayer in school, "imminent moves to drug legalization", "creeping euthenasia movement", "they'll take yer guns away!!!!"....all classics and will be the bread & butter (stale and rancid) fed to the ditto-heads, Hannitized, "No Spinners", etc.

    Meanwhile the GOP will be praying that the recession doesn't end before March 2010 (long enough to help them in November 2010, but short enough that once it does end, THEY can take credit for it...somehow) and complaining about "trillions in debt" (where they had NO concern over it in 2003-2006).

    Problem is most Americans DO remember 2003-2006 and "If both sides did it", hard to make a case for blaming the Dems for more debt....and that's all the Repubs will have (except for the above idiocies, of course).

    Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 12:49pm

24. Problem is most Americans DO remember 2003-2006 and "If both sides did it", hard to make a case for blaming the Dems for more debt....and that's all the Repubs will have (except for the above idiocies, of course).

    Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 12:49pm | ignore this person | warn this person

    problem is also that even many of the semi concious have also seen more than a few episodes of john stewart and the other now "cool" critics of the neocon poison and have dimly decided up down and down is up (which makes up down and down up, of course) relative to the old neocon defintition of reality, and like i said, once those types get something into their thick skulls, takes a lot to change their minds.

    at least they have more or less the truth in their noggins now, or close enough...

    the hard aynrandian/fundyvangelist right has been MASSIVELY discreditted and for a looooooong time...

    Posted by ibbleblibble at 01/15/2009 @ 1:07pm

25. Rubish taught in public school and reflects a toal lack of understanding of markets, innovators, capitalism and growth. You obviously, are not an entrepeneur nor a businessman. You should be on Donnie Deutsch show just to let the people who make the econmy grow and work see what they are up against...as if we do not aready know. Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 12:17pm

    Hmm. I guess I will repeat this for the 20th time now. I DIDN'T GO TO PUBLIC SCHOOL. Jesus. How many times can you say something before it sinks into the thick skulls of listeners.

    Name me the booming economies, that are not considering growing (ie. China), that are truly capitalist. I am talking about long established and strong capitalist economies.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 01/15/2009 @ 1:42pm

26. Rubish taught in public school and reflects a toal lack of understanding of markets, innovators, capitalism and growth. You obviously, are not an entrepeneur nor a businessman. You should be on Donnie Deutsch show just to let the people who make the econmy grow and work see what they are up against...as if we do not aready know. Posted by YourJomamma at 01/15/2009 @ 12:17pm

    Also I have a plan that is currently trying to be brought to fruition for a business and plans for future businesses. Which I guess would make me both of things, so you are wrong on all counts Jom. Good job though. You've proven your complete inability for prediction once again.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 01/15/2009 @ 1:43pm

27. Don't get snotty again about Americans, Frosty....or I'll ask who's running YOUR country now and who's going to run ours next Tuesday!!! heheh

    Posted by Mask at 01/15/2009 @ 10:59am

    same difference. these people are (intentionally) ignorant, too.

    fear sells.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 01/15/2009 @ 2:03pm

28. I'm dubious about legislative members of the Republican party behaving in tactically or strategically rational ways. Just look at the California Republican party.

    The state is desperately broke after a Republican governor found himself unable to get any Republican support for his programs, and ended up legislating with the Democrats. Shortly, the state will start issuing IOUs instead of paying its bills. The Democrats have put out several packages that combine serious cuts across the board with tax increases in order to stop the bleeding, and have compromised with big chunks of the governator's demands...but still, not a single Republican in the legislature (where they make up just over 1/3) will support these compromises.

    This may well be politically suicidal, since once people start getting IOUs, they're likely to blame the blockers, not the people who tried to fix things -- yet the lockstep response continues. Rationality? Republicans? Hmmmmmmm.....

    Posted by PQuincy at 01/15/2009 @ 7:45pm

29. Gee, Ya think?

    Who needs DC chatter to figure this out? This has been their MO for decades.

    Since when have they NOT pulled that crap? What do you think RayGunomics was all about? They used this "strategery" to help bring down the Soviet Union, and they figure it's a way to bring down what they see as the "Little USSR" within the U.S.

    And yes, they are so ideologically driven, they're more than willing to cut off our collective noses to spite our face.

    Since when have the Republicans NOT overspent and then claimed there was no money left for the little people?

    Ramius, Northern Kentucky

    Posted by Ramius at 01/16/2009 @ 2:19pm

30. Gee, Ya think?

    Who needs DC chatter to figure this out? This has been their MO for decades.

    Since when have they NOT pulled that crap? What do you think RayGunomics was all about? They used this "strategery" to help bring down the Soviet Union, and they figure it's a way to bring down what they see as the "Little USSR" within the U.S.

    And yes, they are so ideologically driven, they're more than willing to cut off our collective noses to spite our face.

    Since when have the Republicans NOT overspent and then claimed there was no money left for the little people?

    Ramius, Northern Kentucky

    Posted by Ramius at 01/16/2009 @ 2:19pm