What Turnout Means

posted by Christopher Hayes on 05/12/2008 @ 3:55pm

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Travel day for me, so light posting. (O'Hare on the day after Mother's day is not a place you want to be)

But if you read one piece of campaign commentary today, read this fascinating piece by Josh Kalven over at the excellent Progress Illinois.

In the piece, Kalven interviews the myserious Kos diarist Poblano. Poblano has developed his own statistical model of turnout that has proven remarkably accurate in predicting the results in primary contests. In the piece, Kalven has Poblano use his model to project what kind of electoral college gains Obama would reap in the general for every 10% he increases African American turnout. The results are eye-opening:

Recently, Progress Illinois and the SEIU Illinois Council (which sponsors us) asked Poblano to examine how incremental increases in turnout among certain demographic groups would affect the outcome of an Obama-McCain contest. What he found underscores the importance of voter mobilization this year. (You can find Poblano's own analysis here.)

Take the African-American vote, for example. With each 10 percent increase in black turnout nationwide, Obama gains an average of 13 electoral votes, while his chance of winning jumps by about eight points.

Comments (30)

Oh, I'm sure Senator McCain will be able to convince them that a pasty ex-ginger Scotsman promising more of the same "only nicer", is just as much a friend of the black folks!

Or else scare the white vote with tales of "Socialist Black Panthers taking over OUR country, taxing the crap out of us and looking askance at our daughters!!!!"

(via 527s of course, right HAPPY?....since McCain is above such negative campaigning!)

Posted by Mask at 05/12/2008 @ 3:58pm
Excuse me Christopher, but explain to me again what politicians in general and democrats specifically have done for blacks in the last 30 years? I mean, other than pander.

Posted by Freiheit at 05/12/2008

I can answer that one Frei,...NOTHING!!

Posted by ACook at 05/12/2008 @ 5:09pm
so, black's are being used

.

.

.

to elect a black man.

the shame.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008 @ 5:19pm
Posted by Freiheit at 05/12/2008

You prove your lack of subtlety. A black man in office does a lot to change the view of African Americans in this country and their role in it. Whether he passes tons of legislation that helps them out or not the fact that he is President does a lot for the view of black people in this country. The problem with the black community is a lack of some sort of leader to mobilize the community after MLKs death. No one has been able to inspire people so they have sunk into self-pity and aggression instead. Maybe Obama can change that through just the fact of winning the presidency. Who knows. I could be entirely wrong. But there are more subtle things at work here than passing a few bills to make the black community better off.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 5:21pm
So what happpens if 10% of the female supporters of Hillary DO NOT vote in this election and go for mcCain..

Or if the same number(10%)increase of whites voters follow the white candidate?

Obama loses 13% per state....

Obama had better pray that whites do not vote in the same pattern the blacks have demonstrated this election..

For Obama can not win with 100% of all blacks, far leftys and other fringe groups alone....he needs the middle and he is weak there I believe.

Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008 @ 5:29pm
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008

We are about to find out. It will be interesting to watch for the next four years.

Posted by Benchrest at 05/12/2008 @ 5:30pm
Go for it, plow tens of millions into voter reg & get-out. Then reap the rich harvest that is long, long overdue. Oh yes, indeed we can. Bigots & blunderers, move aside, your day is done, you have cost US entirely too much already.

Posted by sloper at 05/12/2008 @ 5:39pm
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008

I don't think he is weak among them. He polls decently among the middle. I think once he starts full one bombarding McCain he will gain a lot more of the middle. You have to remember Jom. Polls right now no matter how good they are because McCain has gotten a free-ride while Obama is taking a pummeling. So we have to see what happens once the Demo machine turns all its guns on McCain.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 5:41pm
If this last month is a demonstration of the worst that can happen to Obama. I think he will be fine come the generals. The Repubs AND Hillary were attacking him and he still came out alright. As my friend said "that man could talk his way out of a sunburn."

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 5:42pm
So we have to see what happens once the Demo machine turns all its guns on McCain.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008

McCain will have a tough time running against Obia and the MSM, who seem to be in love with him...by all rights the Dems should sweep everything...but then so should have ALGORE...

It will be interesting..

I do believe MASK hit on something earlier...RUSH doesn't want McCain to win, except he fears the left loons the dems will put on the court..and you will see more legislation from the bench than ever ...

Rush wants a Dem in this election and feels the next 4 years will leave such a bad taste in the mouth for Dems that they will have another blow out like '94...I am not sure, for I do not see any conservatives coming down the road...

Anyway, I have already protected my assets and am prepared to ride this next 4 years out, for in a weak dollar period it is time to export products and we are abouit to hit high gear....no matter who wins.

Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008 @ 5:55pm
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008

This is why the smart money doesn't go with its gut - and actually runs the numbers. I suggest you do the same.

http://www.progressillinois.com/538model%282%29.xls

But even if you want to live in anecdotal land, the anecdote is Democrats are showing up in the polls as much as two to one over the "other" party and Republicans have a candidate that a quarter of their party hates and who has so many liabilities it isn't even necessary to swift boat him.

You might as well start looking to 2012 because Republicans are out and your taxes are going up to pay for the war you were cheerleading for.

Posted by srjenkins at 05/12/2008 @ 5:59pm
I don't think he is weak among them. He polls decently among the middle. I think once he starts full one bombarding McCain he will gain a lot more of the middle. You have to remember Jom. Polls right now no matter how good they are because McCain has gotten a free-ride while Obama is taking a pummeling. So we have to see what happens once the Demo machine turns all its guns on McCain.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008

C3, the general election is a totally different animal than primaries and caucuses. Keep in mind, this is McCain second go-round in this arena. And he's a lot more wiser.

Posted by ACook at 05/12/2008 @ 6:06pm
So what happpens if 10% of the female supporters of Hillary DO NOT vote in this election and go for mcCain..

Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008 | ignore this person

.

JOHNMAASCH, are you asking what happens if 10% of Hillarys female supports don't vote? Or what happens if they vote for McSame instead? Really, did that question, as you phrased it, make any sense to you?

.

For Obama can not win with 100% of all blacks, far leftys and other fringe groups alone....he needs the middle and he is weak there I believe.

Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008 | ignore this person

.

Have you checked the polls JOHNMAASCH? Latest LA Times poll (national poll - not just LA) shows Obama already ahead and he hasn't even started to campaign against McSame.

If you're wondering what happens if some Clinton backers go for McSame, try looking at those poll results. They show Clinton beating McSame by 11 points. When Obama replaces Clinton, even after some of HRCs backers jump to McSame, Obama still comes out on top.

Your fuzzy math aside, you might want to ask yourself what happens if Obama gets 46% of the vote and McSame gets 40% of the vote.

Posted by Lillian at 05/12/2008 @ 6:16pm
Posted by ACook at 05/12/2008

Very true. But Barack has a way of mobilizing people that few candidates have enjoyed in a long time. Call it cultism or whatever you want be he has a way of inspiring people to participate which is something McCain lacks. Obama does represent change in that he is changing the electoral map by bringing out new voters.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 6:19pm
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/200

I think your comments about Rush are true for sure. He needs material. If McCain gets in an does everything the way everyone knows he will Rush is off the air. I don't think a Dem will do as much damage as Conservs like to fear monger everyone into believing. I don't like Bill but he didn't damage the country nearly as much as GW. So we will see. I didn't think GW would do AS much damage as he did even though I was vehemently against him from the beginning so I could always be wrong.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 6:22pm
You might as well start looking to 2012 because Republicans are out and your taxes are going up to pay for the war you were cheerleading for.

Posted by srjenkins at 05/12/2008

THE POINT IS I HAVE RUN THE NUMBERS..

Here is where you miss the point....

My taxes will indeed go up, as will EVERY BODYS... but not to pay for the war..but to pay for YOUR health care, increase taxes to pay for your schemes to "save the planet", increase gas taxes to reduce consumption here(it will reduce the consumption for those who can least afford it), but will NOT affect over all consumption of oil for we need oil and will use it for the next 50 years at least,..my taxes will go up to "help" the schools, but it will NOT change the system so the out come will be the same, TOTAL FAILURE..my taxes will go up to "help" those who are screwed by some other victim status, from slavery to parents who didn't love me...but in the end it will only create another group dependent on govt for life..

All our taxes will go up accross the board, but it will improve nothing,,,in 2012, the same groups at election time will be complaining that they are getting screwed..ect..

In other words...all things will go up, the schools will continue to fail the students, you will try to see a doctor at the post office model, gas will cost you more, yet you will not figure out we have enough oil in our own hemisphere to help and you won't get it, and the earths temperature will be just fine next year, 10 years and 50 years down the road...only we will pay 60% of our earnings, or should I say, we will be allowed to keep 40% of what we earn...and you will be fine with that, since you mean well and want to help those less forunate, when in fact, their lives will be made a notch harder, not from good intentions, but from unitended consequences of retrying policys that have been scrapped years ago and you might find out that you are not the right people now runnng it...

But I will have moved on and protect my family from the policys you dream about,in fact, youy might even be fighting the Iranians, but that will be OK as was Clintons Bosnia war, for Dems fight good wars,... other producers I am sure are arranging as we speak..captial gains will increase and captial will move to where it can grow..probably Asia...

Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008 @ 6:30pm
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/200

I know the media thing is a common point of everyone fighting this battle. However the media hasn't really been nice to him as of late. Wright, Ayers, Flag pin, Bitter. They are coming after him over and over and focusing more on him than anyone else. I think the media only loves the underdog. Because the person who is ahead gives them more stories to write about than attacking the person who is behind. The media lover Obama when he was the underdog. Now that Hillary is the underdog and Obama is the winner Obama is getting attacked and Hillary is mostly being left alone except for by the ones who are pointing out that there is no way she can possibly win. Fox News is all for her though. I see more positive press for her on Fox than I do anywhere.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 6:46pm
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/200

Eh good riddance to greedy. Let them move their capital to Asia. I think America is the experiment in capitalism that proves it's inevitable turn. I think once people stop being deceived by the Horatio Alger myth they start to realize they and their family are not benefiting from a system that only helps the rich stay rich and only promotes enough of the poor to richdom to make the others believe they can do it too. However most poor people who become rich are still employees of someone and can have it all taken away sooner or later. If America does turn to socialism then it will prove something. The greatest experiment in capitalism will have fallen apart in only 200 years. Which will tell anyone who truly analyzes it one thing. Capitalism is not sustainable. You can move to Asia but I think the results will prove to be much the same and I think the same will happen much quicker. Because Asia is already experiencing massive problems from their attempts to inflate their economy too fast.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 6:52pm
Turn-out dynamics is the KEY Obama advantage over McCain. Most current polls do not factor in the increased turn-out in their head-to-head matchups, and use last years turn-out in this year's polling.

The other part of the increased turn-out with Obama is not only new black voters, but "new" voters who have been turned off by politics-as-usual and see hope for the first time with Barack. These disaffected voters, new blacks, and young voters, will ALL be factors in the new turn-out dynamics, putting Obama over the top in November!

Posted by Metteyya at 05/12/2008 @ 7:07pm
Bigots & blunderers, move aside, your day is done,

Posted by sloper

hear! hear!

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008 @ 8:06pm
You might as well start looking to 2012 because Republicans are out and your taxes are going up to pay for the war you were cheerleading for.

Posted by srjenkins

republicans out -- yep.

taxes up -- dunno. wouldn't want to rile anybody up by making them see reality.

i see more rubber money tax rebates (and lots more t-bills for the u.s. government to buy from itself).

8:10

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008 @ 8:12pm
But I will have moved on and protect my family from the policys you dream about,in fact, youy might even be fighting the Iranians, but that will be OK as was Clintons Bosnia war, for Dems fight good wars,... other producers I am sure are arranging as we speak..captial gains will increase and captial will move to where it can grow..probably Asia...

Posted by JOMAMMA

another america hater raises his cut'n'run head.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008 @ 8:22pm
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/200

"I feel disillusioned by the 'American Dream and the American Middle Class.' If you graduate, if you go to college, if you... then you will rise above the poverty line. Let me tell you Mr. Sanders, I feel more impoverished today than I ever have. Why? Because when I was poor, I didn't have nearly $100k of debt; essentially making me indentured to my country. That isn't freedom. Portland , OR"

People don't understand why they work so hard and get nothing from it. That is what capitalism is creating. A bunch of bitter people who are barely making ends meet on what USED to be a good salary. Costs have risen but salaries have not. As companies figure out they can charge more for essential products without having to pay their employees more. It's called price fixing and it used to be illegal. Purist capitalist like yourself say the market will fix itself but how? Explain to me how when the companies own the government and their will is all but law can the people fight back? Explain to me when what you provide is absolutely essential and there are no other options can the people contend when you and all your "competitors" raise the price. Explain to me Jom how a struggling family who is barely making ends meet can afford to go to another option like solar power, when they can barely afford their oil, just to prove to the oil companies they no longer want to do business with them. The market will kill itself. Poverty invariably rises as the dollar becomes less powerful but salaries do not rise. As the cost of essential utilities like oil go up but the American people are not making more money. So explain to me how the economy will take care of itself without nationalizing essential resources so companies can't price fix.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 8:34pm
HAPPY3

you're losing your mind.....

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008 @ 10:39pm
Posted by HAPPY3 at 05/12/2008

Wow happy I think someone might have hijacked your nick you are getting more and more non-sensical daily.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 10:40pm
psssst: 57 happens to match the number of Islamic countries , what a coincidence!

Posted by HAPPY3 at 05/12/2008

Yes he is muslim AND he was in Wright's church for 20 years. Makes prefect sense Happy.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/12/2008 @ 11:00pm
¿IMAN WRIGHT?

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008 @ 11:09pm
spreading fear......

how entertaining.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/13/2008 @ 12:28am
Posted by JOMAMMA at 05/12/2008

Amazing. The deficit doubles under Bush, and you're worried about social programs. The guy only liked social programs that don't work - like abstinence education.

But to the point, your electoral comments are off. You know it. I know it - which is why you went to taxes and didn't bother to address it.

As for your typical talk of unions and what not, there is a cost to be paid for bad working conditions, bad environmental controls and what not. It's only a matter of time before your parasite economics catches up with you and bites you in the ass.

You see, the future isn't China or India or Brazil. The future is going to be people striving not to live in some shithole - which these countries are fast becoming - and where they can get basic needs such as clean water or air without having to buy it from Coke/Pepsi for a day's wage. So much for modern slavery - capitalists everywhere are crying in their friggin' lattes.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/12/2008

The tax rates will increase. They are the lowest they have been in years, and it's simply economics at this point. They may give out some rebate checks. However, there is nothing unusual about giving rebates and taking more later - particularly if the taking is from the top tier earners, which will also happen and will be couched as rolling back Bush's tax cuts for the rich. Middle America doesn't care how much their CEO's pay in taxes and given the wage differential between CEOs and front line workers, I can't say I blame them.

Posted by srjenkins at 05/13/2008 @ 02:17am
Hey Libzsuck! Can you say, "Ignorant?"

They say, "Ignorance is bliss," and if that's true you must be an incredibly happy person! Careful not to burst your bubble with any of those pesky facts like Congressional voting record, campaign contributors, or consistent stance on Iraq.

Too bad Bush can't run again. Oh that's right, we've got McCain...

Posted by macduck at 05/13/2008 @ 3:28pm