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There's electricity in the air in Tehran. Beneath the snow-capped peaks that tower over the city, crowds gather every night to argue in the streets. Campaign posters touting candidates in the June 12 vote cover the city. A year ago, when I visited Tehran in advance of the parliamentary elections, there was apathy. Voters then were convinced that their votes didn't matter, and that not voting was the best way to protest the current state of affairs. No longer. There's a wave building, and all signs point to a resounding victory for Mir Hossein Mousavi, the pro-reform candidate who is challenging President Ahmadinejad.
That wave is green. All over the capital, there are green signs and banners supporting Mousavi. Cars flying green flags speed through the city, honking horns for Mousavi. For years, the hardline clergy and their allies, including Ahmadinejad, have feared nothing more than an Iranian-style "color-revolution." Now, Mousavi--with solid establishment credentials, an Islamic revolutionary pedigree second to none, and an outspoken pro-reform message--finds himself at the head of a green parade.
Of course, the hardliners and Ahmadinejad have a lot of aces up their sleeve, including the security services, the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guard, and the interior ministry, which counts the votes.
On Saturday, my first day in Tehran, I traveled some 25 miles outside the capital to Karaj, a city of three million people, for a rally for Mousavi at a huge soccer stadium. The scene was frenzied with excitement. At least 20,000 people waving green flags and dressed in green scarves packed the place. They did the wave. The cheers were deafening, and Mousavi hadn't even arrived yet. In the VIP section, I ran into an Iranian Olympic wrestling champion, Ebrahim Javadi, who'd come to show his support. "I am sure Mr. Mousavi can help us survive this crisis," he said. And better relations with the United States? "One hundred percent!" he said. Nearby, a middle-aged mullah, dressed in brown robes and white turban, said he'd watched President Obama's speech. Akbar Hamidi, 48, is a specialist in Persian literature. "Please take our message of peace to America," he told me. "I hope we elect Mousavi so he can start negotiations with the United States."
When Mousavi entered, the frenzy hit new highs. A roar went up. People chanted: "If there is no election cheating, you are Number One!" and "Ahmadinejad, shame on you! Let's get rid of you!"
And then: the power went out. Mousavi could not speak. He waved to the vast crowd, and they waved back. After half an hour, he waved goodbye. Rumors flew that someone--the most often mentioned culprit was the Basij, the paramilitary force that supports Ahmadinejad--had sabotaged the rally. Just another day of politics in Iran. The next day, another Mousavai rally was canceled at a stadium north of Tehran when the stadium management informed Mousavi staff that the rally would damage the playing field in advance of a match next week."Just an excuse," said an Iranian observer.
Later that night, more than 300 Iranian artists--painters, sculptors and others--convened an extraordinary gathering in support of Mousavi, whose outspoken wife is also an artist and who, in a step unprecedented in Iran, campaigns side by side with him, even holding hands. Hundreds of people gathered at the Gallery Mellat, and in an auditorium they listened to a speech by former President Khatami, the reformist, who is supporting Mousavi. "The government," said Khatami, "has turned being anti-art into an art form." Mousavi, who was prime minister from 1981-1989, had garnered across-the-board support from Iran's intellectual community, including writers, artists, musicians, actors, and others. At the event I spoke to many world famous Iranian artists, each of whom said that each and every work they produce must be cleared by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. And there was enormous buzz about Obama's opening to Iran. "People hope we can find a new way with Obama," said Farah Ossouli, who helped to organize the artists' exhibition. "But if Ahmadinejad stays, we are not sure he wants relations with the United States."
The next day, at Mousavi headquarters, I met Mostafa Hassani, 27, the whiz kid who came up with the idea of using green. It's a concept that Hassani, a prize-winning design student, came up with in 2008, even before he knew who'd be running. "I wanted something that could unite the country. We decided on green. Everyone can have access to something green, and when you make something common, like a logo, people can adopt it." He brought the idea to the Mousavi campaign a few weeks ago, and it clicked. He started with green arm bands, and it's expanded. The latest innovation is a green-paint handprint and a green checkmate, for a vote. "People can slap their hands on the wall, even in remote areas."
It's a long and difficult climb for Mousavi, of course. But everywhere, it seems, support for Ahmadinejad is lackluster, and the Mousavi green wave is growing. The campaign, including an unprecedented series of TV debates, is growing bitter. Today, I'm going to a rally for Ahmadinejad, the former mayor of Tehran, in the center of the city. Stay tuned.
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Robert Dreyfuss
A chronicle of America's adventures in foreign policy and national security.
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Let's not count chickens, Mr Dreyfuss...but it is a good sign.
Also going to be hilarious to see how the Right reacts to the removal of their Iranian boogeyman Ahmadinejad.
No doubt if Mousavi wins, they'll "suddenly" "amazingly" discover that he's "just as bad" and we still need to "keep all options on the table" (i.e. bombings).
Posted by Mask at 06/08/2009 @ 09:58am
Yes, a shot...
it will be the last thing he hears...right after "Allah Akbahr".....
Posted by YourJomamma at 06/08/2009 @ 10:06am
And what changes in Iran if he is elected?
Posted by zmann at 06/08/2009 @ 10:11am
From--The Book of Questions by Pablo Neruda
But is it true that the vests
are preparing to revolt?
Why does spring once again
offer its green clothes?
Why does agriculture laugh
at the pale tears of the sky?
How did the abandoned bicycle
win its freedom?
Posted by Sorelish at 06/08/2009 @ 10:28am
DREYFUSS: "Mousavi....had garnered across-the-board support from Iran's intellectual community, including writers, artists, musicians, actors, and others."
Not bad of a trend in Iran, but this is NOT a good sign......"support from Iran's intellectual" poo-bahs! LOL!!
Posted by Happy at 06/08/2009 @ 10:51am
What about polling in Iran, ROBERT DREYFUSS?
Your anecdotal stories from your visit are interesting, but I am one of those data driven guys that wants to see the numbers.
Posted by Metteyya at 06/08/2009 @ 11:11am
Spoke too soon!
It appears that the recent polls are all over the map, with some showing a 50/30 lead for either candidate.
http://tinyurl.com/qg6rgh
I guess unless we get professional unbiased polling, we will just have to wait for the election results.
Posted by Metteyya at 06/08/2009 @ 11:16am
I guess unless we get professional unbiased polling, we will just have to wait for the election results.
Posted by Metteyya at 06/08/2009 @ 11:16am
Asumming of course they have professional unbiased elections...which we will only know for sure if the opposition party wins. Any result supporting the status quo will remain open for discussion as to the potential for tampering.
Posted by Extraneous at 06/08/2009 @ 11:43am
agreed that A. winning election could be achieved by election fraud. But absent actual evidence of material election fraud, one will have no basis to argue that it was not a professional unbiased election. Of course, there are those who claim there is material evidence that USA is not a professional unbiased election.
Posted by gren at 06/08/2009 @ 12:40pm
But..... who will all those New Yorkers demonstrate against when the new Pres. visits Columbia University? I predict they'll have to start demonizing Obama himself. Either way, the losers won't take losing lightly.
Posted by DejaVu at 06/08/2009 @ 1:08pm
Posted by DejaVu at 06/08/2009 @ 1:08pm
Naturally, if Ahmadinejad is defeated, a new boogeyman will be created.
Though it will be a stunner to the Right, who have invested a lot of time and energy in "Ah-mad-in-da-head" and aren't good at shifting gears quickly to a new target.
Posted by Mask at 06/08/2009 @ 1:34pm
Since a nuclear attack on Israel would take out the Palestinians, the Holy city of Jerusalem, and parts if not all of the neighboring Islamic countries, I do not regard such an attack as a high risk. Also, the Iranian clerical leader issued a Fatwa against the development and use of Nuclear weapons. Since there is no hard evidence that they are currently developing nuclear weapons, I will take their word that they have no interest in having them. Since Three Mile Island, and Chernobyl, I am not too fond of nuclear power plants, but they are not illegal, and we can only hope some idiot country does not try to bomb them. I do not believe it is in the national interest of any country, including Israel, in the Middle East to have nuclear weapons, because, their preemptive use, would produce suicidal collateral damage to the country that used them. Since there are good reasons not to have them, negotiations regarding non-proliferation of nuclear weapons have every chance of success. Negotiate without preconditions, quit making threats, treat peopled with respect, and talks can produce results. If some country does develop nuclear weapons, we have more and larger weapons. This is called a deterrents, and, at worse, we have another Cold War. A Cold War is better than a hot Nuclear War! I wouldn't be writing these words if these methods had not worked!
Posted by pjcasey at 06/08/2009 @ 3:22pm
Posted by pjcasey at 06/08/2009 @ 3:22pm
I think the usual neo-con suggestion is that the Iranians would give The Bomb to Hezbollah and they set it off in a "pure Israeli" city like Tel Aviv...not near Jerusalem.
And naturally, the Iranians are "so crazy" that they won't mind 100 nukes raining down on their cities when the Israelis launch a counter-strike.
Posted by Mask at 06/08/2009 @ 3:36pm
Does anyone seriously doubt that if Israel is determined to strike at Iran,the results of the elections are moot? When Greater Israel is at stake,nothing will stand in its way.
Posted by mystic at 06/08/2009 @ 4:00pm
I was in Iran on a grassroots diplomacy delegation until May 27th, and unfortunately I just missed all this election excitement (a stark contrast to our 2-year-long presidential elections). Campaign posters just started going up as I was leaving. Everything I've read says that it's extremely difficult to get accurate opinion polls in Iran, and I heard from a lot of people there that Iran's elections are very unpredictable, though there seemed to be a little bit of buzz about Mousavi already. I was walking around in a green manteau the whole time, before the green wave hit and that took on so much significance.
I hope the Obama administration will stick to its pledge of pursuing diplomacy regardless, though I would certainly be happy to have the right lose its favorite fear-mongering tool in Ahmadinejad. But Congress also needs to tone down its saber-rattling and pushing for sanctions, it undermines Obama and it makes Iranians highly skeptical that US policy is going to change.
Posted by rebeccagriffin at 06/08/2009 @ 7:24pm
Posted by rebeccagriffin at 06/08/2009 @ 7:24pm
How is it over there?
Posted by zmann at 06/08/2009 @ 8:24pm
Posted by zmann at 06/08/2009 @ 8:24pm
There is a lot I could say about that, but the short version is that it was an amazing trip. Beautiful country and culture. All the Iranians I met were extremely welcoming and very excited to meet Americans since so few visit every year. A lot of them had seen more American movies and TV shows than I have. It was very interesting to hear what people think about the US government. They hold absolutely no ill will toward Americans, and very much want a peaceful relationship with the US, but are still highly skeptical of our government (not at all surprising given the history--the 1953 coup, supporting Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq War, the shooting down of a civilian plane in 1988). Some of them were cautiously optimistic about Obama, but won't believe US policy is really going to change until they see results. They are very educated and sophisticated, and well aware of the political dynamics and the hostility coming from some of our politicians and pundits.
You can read blog posts I wrote while I was on the trip here: http://bit.ly/Zb0kV
Posted by rebeccagriffin at 06/08/2009 @ 9:46pm
Mr Mousavi may have a chance if he can figure out how to avoid being killed.
Posted by pyeatte at 06/08/2009 @ 11:32pm
Iran always a new "mad man" of the mounth flavor in the land of political martars and soon to be atomic weapons thanks to the cowardice of the new American leftist follower operating under the pretense he is a leader! dLooks like the Obamanation that makes desolation could have a new playmate providing he lives!
Posted by BigPasture at 06/09/2009 @ 12:26am
Please tell us... What are "martars"?
Posted by BlackFrancis at 06/09/2009 @ 09:34am