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RedditWhile Prime Minister Netanyahu was meeting President Obama at the White House Monday morning, the Zogbys -- John Zogby, president/CEO of Zogby International, a polling firm, and Jim Zogby, his brother, president of the Arab American Institute -- were a few blocks away at the New America Foundation to discuss the surprising results of an interactive poll about US attitudes toward the conflict in the Middle East.
The results suggest that Obama would have strong support for a hands-on US diplomatic effort to forge an Israel-Palestine deal, even if it means pressure on Israel.
According to the poll, when asked if the United States should "get tough" with Israel in order to back up its call for an end to settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, fully 50 percent of Americans said yes, with just 19 percent saying "do nothing," and 32 percent not sure.
Even though Americans have a high opinion of Israel (by a 71-21 margin) and a low opinion of the Palestinians (by a 25-66 margin) in terms of favorability, overall -- not just in regard to settlements -- Americans say that it's "time for the United States to get tough with Israel" by a surprising 45-44 margin.
Hiding in those numbers, however, is an overwhelming partisan gap, and that is the really striking thing about the Zogby poll. From my notes:
Asked whether the interests of Israel and the US are identical, only 28 percent of Obama voters agreed, while 59 percent disagreed. Among McCain voters, it was the reverse: 78 percent of McCain voters said US and Israel interests were identical and 15 percent said they are not.Asked about Netanyahu, the favorability rating for Obama voters was 29-49 percent, while the rating for McCain voters was a lopsided 82-9 percent.
And on the crucial question, is it time to get tough with Israel, the gap was a veritable Grand Canyon. Among Obama voters, 71 percent agreed and 18 percent disagreed. Among McCain voters, 16 percent agreed and 73 percent disagreed.
Similar divides showed up on virtually every question asked.
What does it mean? It says that President Obama will have the support of his base, including Democrats and Independents, if he decides to force the issue in coming months with the Israeli leader. According to John Zogby, part of the reason is demographic: black voters, Hispanic voters, and young (18-30) voters are far less attached to the US-Israeli special relationship than are older, more traditional voters, especially among Christian evangelicals.
Obama, being the cautious soul that he is, isn't likely to force a showdown, at least not anytime soon. But his meeting with Netanyahu today showed clearly that he isn't backing down to Netanyahu's bluster and fear-mongering over Iran.
It also shows that the vaunted Israel lobby is in a pickle. American Jews voted overwhelmingly for Obama, with 76 percent of US Jews voting Democratic in 2008. "American Jews are mostly in the peace camp," says John Zogby. That means the opposition to Obama will come first and foremost from the ultra-right wing of the Israel lobby, such as the allies of Likud, the Zionist Organization of America, and hard-line neoconservatives, along with their allies on the Christian right and among the Republican Party's right, including most of its congressional wing.
But middle-of-the-road, moderate, and especially liberal Jews are likely to back Obama. That's a dynamic that can isolate AIPAC, the central player in the Israel lobby. If it plays its cards wrong, AIPAC might find itself cut off from its base among pro-Israeli American Jews. So far, AIPAC -- and Netanyahu -- are hoping that they can stall Obama's Middle East peace plan until something, anything, erupts to derail it. But I think Obama is determined to press ahead.
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Robert Dreyfuss
A chronicle of America's adventures in foreign policy and national security.
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not surprising...
Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/18/2009 @ 4:19pm
>>>That means the opposition to Obama will come first and foremost from the ultra-right wing of the Israel lobby, such as the allies of Likud, the Zionist Organization of America, and hard-line neoconservatives, along with their allies on the Christian right and among the Republican Party's right, including most of its congressional wing<<<
Finally some PROOF to what I have been saying for several years on this blog!
It is time to isolate AIPAC as a right-wing Likud-oriented group that has no place in the Democratic Party! Tell Gingrich he can have them on one condition: that AIPAC admits that it does NOT represent mainstream Jews in America!
Posted by Metteyya at 05/18/2009 @ 4:55pm
God, I hope you're right. Stalling for time, though, seems to be Netanyahu's strategy, so far. I guess when "G-d is on your side" and you've stolen as much as you can handle, or more, there's no big hurry to give anything back......
Posted by DejaVu at 05/18/2009 @ 4:56pm
As an American male who is 1/4 Jewish, it's really hard to know where Jews in America stand. Their criticism of Israel, when it happens at all, is so tepid, mild and lame it might as well be non-existent. Perhaps it's censored by the zionist press that finds Jewish dissent even more dangerous to it's agenda than that of Gentiles, I don't know. Or maybe their Jewish mamas have them terrified. (I forget the Hebrew term for defying your family, but it's scary-sounding.) But either way, if I were a liberal Jew, I'd be screaming bloody murder at the zionists (the Jewish "right") since liberal Jews have a long history of paying a very high price for the crimes of the zionists.
Posted by DejaVu at 05/18/2009 @ 5:27pm
The ultra right wing Zionist groups can always resort to their vast network of sympathizers and agents in Congress to circumvent any pressure that Obama may exert on the snake-oil salesman Netanyahu.
That where Jimmy Carter found himself when he confronted the ex-terrorist and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin over his refusal to engage in serious peace negotiations. The Israeli decided that Carter shouldn't win a second term, and thus, force them to make more concessions for peace. Begin called the Zionist Democratic Mayor of New York then, Ed Koch, to Jerusalem. The NSA intercepted a conversation between Begin and Ed Koch where Begin was advising Koch on the best way to defeat Carter in the 1980 election by organizing anti Carter opposition within the Democratic Party. This was not the first or the last time that our spineless politicians sell out their country and the American interest for Israel.
The Israeli know well how much power and control they have over America. Ariel Sharon, Netanyahu's mentor, stated that concept clearly when he told Shimon Peres:
"Every time we do something you tell me America will do this and will do that... I want to tell you something very clear: Don't worry about American pressure on Israel. We, the Jewish people, control America, and the Americans know it." --Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (speaking to Shimon Peres, as reported on Israel Radio [in Hebrew, Kol Yisrael], 3 October 2001)
When it comes to pressuring Netanyahu; Obama ought to know his limitation. America is an Israeli-occupied territory.
Posted by CripThink at 05/18/2009 @ 7:23pm
<But middle-of-the-road, moderate, and especially liberal Jews are likely to back Obama. That's a dynamic that can isolate AIPAC, the central player in the Israel lobby. If it plays its cards wrong, AIPAC might find itself cut off from its base among pro-Israeli American Jews. So far, AIPAC -- and Netanyahu -- are hoping that they can stall Obama's Middle East peace plan until something, anything, erupts to derail it. But I think Obama is determined to press ahead.>
I think there is little likelihood that your scenario plays out as you wish (and I'm thankful that it won't).
The difference is that Israelis and their supporters in the US like myself understand that what Obama and the left desire would be a suicide pact for Israel and the Jews. Netanyahu also understands this and will stand apart from US support if he has to.
Israel is not as anxious to revisit the Holocaust. I would have thought Mr Dreyfuss that you understood that by now.
Posted by antisocialist at 05/18/2009 @ 7:26pm
Bibi greets Obama with a new settlement:
Israel has begun constructing a new settlement in the northern West Bank for the first time in 26 years, Army Radio reported.
The move comes on the eve of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's first meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, despite Western calls for Israel to halt its settlement activity.
philipweiss.org/mondoweiss/2009/05/bibi-greets-obama-.html
Listen to Philip Weiss discuss the Neocon/AIPAC war agenda: antiwar.com/radio/2008/07/12/philip-weiss/
Posted by NoMoreWarForIsrael at 05/18/2009 @ 7:36pm
" Netanyahu also understands this and will stand apart from US support if he has to."
Let him. How does he plan to continue to support himself without US weaponry? So much of what they use there was given to them by us.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/18/2009 @ 8:10pm
Israel is not as anxious to revisit the Holocaust. I would have thought Mr Dreyfuss that you understood that by now.
Posted by antisocialist at 05/18/2009 @ 7:26pm
Oh dear God. This is such an overblown statement. You are talking about one of the only nuclear powers in the region. With one of the strongest armies in the region, and comparing into a smallish Jewish community in a hostile country with no weapons of their own to defend themselves. How can you even BEGIN to compare those to things.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/18/2009 @ 8:12pm
Carter's chief Dem challenger in 80 wasn't the disloyal treacherous Koch, it was primary opponent Ted Kennedy who weakened Carter most from within ... just as Billary will do the same to Obama in '12, if Obama continues to press Israel to behave responsibily.
The most likely GOP beneficiary of an internal attack from Billary on Obama will be the Likud multibillionaire asset Mike Bloomberg, now buying himself an illegal 3rd term as NYC mayor just turned GOP again, so as to have a political perch from which to buy the GOP nomination & WH in '12 ... if the multibillionaire were to succeed, it would put a fervent Likudite in charge of the US, guaranteeing disaster in the ME & elsewhere.
Posted by sloper at 05/18/2009 @ 8:20pm
As far as the Palestinians are concerned, I believe a Peace agreement is possible. Any agreement would have to pass muster in a referendum of the Palestinian people, and Hamas will go along with that kind of agreement. If the Palestinians are satisfied with the agreement, the Islamic world and Iran will have no reason for any conflict with Israel. Your big problem is Israel and the settlements. Obama will have to do some arm twisting to get them to the peace table. This means cutting foreign aid to Israel. These people are tough and ruthless, so you have to play hardball. The Secret Service better be on their toes. Look what happened to Rabin.
Posted by pjcasey at 05/18/2009 @ 8:29pm
The Secret Service better be on their toes. Look what happened to Rabin. Posted by pjcasey at 05/18/2009 @ 8:29pm
Far too true, alas.
Posted by sloper at 05/18/2009 @ 8:31pm
Good article. For my money, the single biggest factor shaping these stats, far bigger than reality is the endless, twisted distortometer, your lovely corporate media!
Posted by winyahn at 05/18/2009 @ 8:46pm
Carter's chief Dem challenger in 80 wasn't the disloyal treacherous Koch, it was primary opponent Ted Kennedy who weakened Carter most from within ... just as Billary will do the same to Obama in '12, if Obama continues to press Israel to behave responsibily.
Posted by sloper at 05/18/2009 @ 8:20pm
sloper,
There is no disagreement on the conclusion that Billary will desert Obama if he is to go head-to-head with Netanyahu. Pelosi will definitely follow Billary's lead. Joe Lieberman will defect to the Republicans and Feinstein will begin investigating the Obama Administration in her Senate Intelligence Committee.
I didn't say that Ed Koch challenged Carter in 1980, however, one can write volume about how much money and energy was expanded by Ed Koch, and company, in 1980 to support Ted Kennedy and defeat Carter from within. Until today, Koch can never forgive Jimmy Carter (His Democratic President) for what he perceives as Carter's undue pressure on Israel.
There is an excellent book on the topic: Dangerous Liaison, The Inside Story of the U.S.-Israeli Covert Relationship.
The book is written by Andrew and Leslie Cockburn and published by HarperPerennial, 1992.
Posted by CripThink at 05/18/2009 @ 9:27pm
What the poll says is that Republican-affiliated voters tend to favor absolutely inhuman treatment of essentially defenseless people. There really isn't much more to say.
Posted by syfriendly at 05/18/2009 @ 10:06pm
Whew...apparently the "all-powerful AIPAC" myth is fading...fading...wait a second, wait a second...
<<The ultra right wing Zionist groups can always resort to their vast network of sympathizers and agents in Congress to circumvent any pressure that Obama may exert on the snake-oil salesman Netanyahu.
Posted by CripThink at 05/18/2009 @ 7:23pm >>
Nooooooooo! The all-powerful cannot be thwarted so easily! All we have to do to support one conspiracy theory is...gasp...assert another one! And what's that you say? You suggest that piling conspiracy theory on conspiracy theory just makes the position more implausible? Nonsense, that's what they want you to think!
Please. All-powerful AIPAC indeed...
Posted by Thrawn at 05/18/2009 @ 10:09pm
Nooooooooo! The all-powerful cannot be thwarted so easily! All we have to do to support one conspiracy theory is...gasp...assert another one! And what's that you say? You suggest that piling conspiracy theory on conspiracy theory just makes the position more implausible? Posted by Thrawn at 05/18/2009 @ 10:09pm
Thrawn,
I am stating facts, not myths. I have supported my posting with true historic incident and recommended a book on the subject.
Now, I can feel your pain and indignation, as well as, your disenchantment with Obama's new policy toward the ME. Obama is definitely no G. W. Bush when it comes to Israel; contrary to the Religio-Fascist Bush, Obama got something between the ears. However, Obama can't cut alone; your Zionist Cabals are very resourceful, rich and powerful. They have a vast Media Empire at their disposal and many powerful politicians on their payroll (are you disputing this?).
If I have to bet my money, I will bet it on AIPAC winning the contest; time will tell.
Posted by CripThink at 05/18/2009 @ 10:34pm
A Zogby interactive poll? You've got to be kidding me. I think fivethirtyeight.com pretty much covers it.
"Zogby, however, also conducts Internet-based polls. These polls are conducted among users who volunteer to participate in them, first by signing up at the Zogby website (you can do so yourself here) and then by responding to an e-mail solicitation. These Internet polls, to the extent they rely on voluntary participation, violate the most basic precept of survey research, which is that of the random sample. And as you might infer, they obtain absolutely terrible results. "
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/ worst-pollster-in-world-strikes-again.html
Please, do a little research on the research before posting this kind of material. This is basic information literacy - find out the methodology before you cite a survey.
Posted by srjenkins at 05/18/2009 @ 10:36pm
By the way, since this is not a random sample of people of the United States, you cannot use this study to make comments about the opinion of "Americans". It's not a sample of Americans. You might as well quote the polls on The Nation site, and say they represent the views of Americans. Saying it doesn't make it so.
Posted by srjenkins at 05/18/2009 @ 10:39pm
George Washington on Israel
"A passionate attachment of one nation for another produces a variety of evils. Sympathy for the favorite nation, facilitating the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists, and infusing into one the enmities of the other, betrays the former into a participation in the quarrels and wars of the latter without adequate inducement or justification." ~George Washington Farewell Address
"The nation which indulges toward another habitual hatred or habitual fondness is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interests." ~ George Washington
"Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none." ~ Thomas Jefferson
Posted by tommyj7648 at 05/18/2009 @ 10:46pm
Hear hear tommyJ!!! Great quotes! As several people noted, AIPAC does NOT represent the views of most Jews in this country. It only represents the very rightwing and very rich. So it is disgusting to watch the Democrats in Congress and White House pay homage to AIPAC on bended knee. The Israeli lobby helped to drag the U.S. into invading Iraq. Now the lobby is trying again to manipulate the U.S. into attacking Iran. And the Democrats are so obedient.
Posted by philbq at 05/19/2009 @ 06:03am
Reagan on Ariel Sharon- "Thug"
From his recently released diary.
The cons love to support thugs. They have quite a history of doing that.
Most Israelis want peace, even if it means a Palestinian state.
Most Palestinians want a state.
It is a small group of religious nutjobs on either side, and in America, that keep the logical thing from happening. Of course the irony is that these same religious nutjobs want to fight each other, with us in the middle, claiming that the other side are "nutjobs" and should be eradicated.
Next Larry will try to tell us that Israel has never tortured anybody.
Posted by crabwalk at 05/19/2009 @ 07:04am
I liked the Washington and Jefferson quotes! They might not have been perfect, but we were lucky to have them as Founding Fathers!
Posted by pjcasey at 05/19/2009 @ 2:59pm
I can well imagine the contempt the average Israeli feels towards us and the U.S. politicians they control. This is not unusual as we often held the dictators we embedded in the Banana Republics with such disdain. What better proof can we see than their supporters haven gotten us into their perpetual war with Islam never showing a legitimate tear about our casualties that have resulted from their success. Supporters such as the delusional lunatic, Rev. Hargee, provide the greatest laugh for the Israelis who brings a gift of a milliion dollars whenever he visits his Holy Land eagerly awaiting the joys of Armageddon when the Jews will finally accept Jesus. Personally, if there are people like Hargee in this purported paradise then I admit I would rather not go there.
Posted by PARRYISLE2 at 05/22/2009 @ 12:26pm