The Zardari-Sharif Battle in Pakistan

At Tuesday's State Department briefing, spokesman Robert Wood -- admittedly speaking quickly, and off the cuff -- said the following about Pakistan, when asked about the political tensions between President Asif Ali Zardari and his rival, Nawaz Sharif:

"It's a complex country. It's got a major problem that it's dealing with, and that's called terrorism."

I don't mean to criticize Wood, because I'm sure he knows better. But the fact is, Pakistan's "major problem" is not "terrorism." The real problem that Pakistan has is that it's entire political system is broken: for nearly half a century, it's been ruled by the military; its political parties are utterly ineffective, having functioned for decades as fiefdoms for two families, the Bhuttos and the Sharifs; and the country is desperately poor, in fact, virtually bankrupt, and its population is being pushed to the brink of desperation. Yes, it's plagued by a terrorist movement, too, but the threat from the Pakistani Taliban and its Al Qaeda allies is nowhere close to existential -- that is, radical Muslims are not about to seize power in Islamabad.

The idea that Pakistan's "major problem" is "terrorism" is the chief shortcoming of US policy toward Pakistan. For nearly a decade, the United States has viewed Pakistan exclusively through the counterterrorism lens. Very few Pakistanis see terrorism as their chief problem, and they quite rightly criticize the United States for demanding that Pakistan make terrorism its first priority. For Pakistanis, the top priorities are economic development and political stability.

Take politics first. The political showdown pitting Zardari against the Sharif brothers is not new. They've been bitter rivals for decades. They represent two clans, both corrupt. As Tariq Ali writes in his book, The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power, politics in Pakistan is a "desert [and] not even an imaginary oasis is in sight." It will take a generation, at least, for Pakistan to develop the rudiments of democratic political institutions, including healthy, grassroots-based political parties with legitimate constituencies. At present, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) -- the party of Zardari and the Bhuttos -- which once upon a time had the potential to become a real, democratic party representing Pakistani intellectuals, workers, and students, is a corrupt shell. And the Muslim League, an echo of the original party of Muslim nationalists that founded Pakistan in 1947, has split into pieces and its major chunk is a corrupted tool for Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif, two brothers.

There is a thriving political class in Pakistan, especially among the professions -- above all, the lawyers -- and among students, who could provide the seeds for rebuilding democracy in Pakistan. The powerful movement in favor of restoring the chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, to office is only one sign of the power of that movement. But for the pro-democracy movement in Pakistan to grow, for it to take over one or both of Pakistan's two dominant political parties -- or to create new ones -- will take a long time. And it will only occur if two conditions are met: first, the Pakistani military must stay out of politics and allows the political class to reassert itself; and, second, the crippling economic crisis in Pakistan must be eased. Pakistan was already wobbling when it was hit by the oil price increase of 2007-2008 and then by the worldwide economic crisis since last summer. It's now a basket case, and it will take a Marshall Plan -- with not only the United States, but China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other friends of Pakistan -- pitching in to help.

A year ago, Zardari -- the widower of Benazir Bhutto -- and Sharif agreed to form a coalition to run Pakistan, but their accord was short-lived.

Since then Zardari has sought to rule as a despot, though his days seem numbered now.

In the late 1960s, Zardari's PPP -- led, then, by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto -- was the most promising political institution in Pakistan. Tariq Ali, who met Benazir Bhutto, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's daughter, in 1969, recalls:

"She agreed that land reform, mass education programs, a health service, and an independent foreign policy were constructive aims and crucial if the country was to be saved from the vultures in and out of uniform. Her constituency was the poor, and she was proud of that."

Over the years, however, the promise of the PPP deteriorated. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who ruled in the 1970s, was overthrown in 1977 by a coup d'etat and hanged in 1979. Radicalized by her father's hanging at the hands of General Zia ul-Haq, the Pakistani dictator who waged the American-funded anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s, Benazir Bhutto battled Zia and, with her brothers, established Al-Zulfiqar, an armed movement, to fight him. But Benazir Bhutto never realized her potential, and perhaps her biggest mistake was to marry Zardari, a wealthy and corrupt polo-playing womanizer. When Zia died in a plane crash in 1988, Bhutto and Sharif took turns serving as prime minister -- with the Pakistani army hovering in the background. Both Bhutto and Sharif used their positions to accumulate vast wealth. (Tariq Ali estimates that Bhutto and Zardari stole $1.5 billion and that the Sharifs, probably $3 billion.) By the late 1990s, the Bhutto-Sharif tag team had exhausted Pakistan, and even many liberal Pakistani's greeted General Pervez Musharraf's coup d'etat in 1999 with relief, hoping that the military at least would restore stability to the country.

Both Bhutto and Sharif fled into exile in the Arab Gulf. Musharraf? Well, that didn't work out so well. And the PPP and the Muslim League didn't exactly thrive during Musharraf's military dictatorship, deteriorating even further. As Tariq Ali writes:

"The Peoples Party needed to be refounded as a modern and democratic organization, open to serious debate and discussion, defending social and human rights, uniting the many disparate groups and individuals in Pakistan desperate for any halfway decent alternative. ... [But] the Peoples Party had now formally become a family heirloom, a property to be disposed of at the will of its proprietor."

That "heirloom" was passed on, when Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, to her husband.

With Zardari's rule today collapsing, thanks to his mishandling of the popular demand to restore Chaudhry, the chief justice, it is looking more and more like Nawaz Sharif will return to power. That's not a surprise. During the year-long battle between Zardari and Sharif, many observers have believed that Sharif would eventually get the upper hand, and he deftly inserted himself at the front of the pro-Chaudhry movement. People I've spoken to in Washington have long believed that Sharif, ultimately, would prevail.

Now to the Sharifs. The Sharif family, prominent on its own, rose to great power because General Zia favored the Sharifs in the 1980s. They'd long been enemies of the Bhutto family, and their roots in industry were far less progressive than the Bhutto clan's roots in the PPP. As Ali writes:

"The day Zia ordered Bhutto's execution, Muhammad Sharif [father of Nawaz and Shahbaz] and his sons gave thanks to Allah for responding so rapidly to their prayers. The oldest son, Nawaz, became a protege of the general's and was made leader of the khaki Muslim League."

When Musharraf took power in 1999, Nawaz Sharif was arrested and charged with treason. He probably would have been executed, but his escape was facilitated by President Clinton, and he settled in Saudi Arabia in exile. To the extent that the Bhutto-Zardari axis, as corrupt as it is, can be considered "left leaning," the Sharif brothers ought to be considered "right leaning." The Sharifs are far closer both to Pakistan's Muslim fundamentalist establishment, including the Muslim Brotherhood-linked Jamaat-i Islam (JI) party, and to Pakistan's military. (Indeed, it's likely that the shadowy Pakistan army and its intelligence service, the ISI, are quietly backing Sharif now against Zardari.) As a Punjabi, Sharif represents the majority ethnic bloc in Pakistan, and as a devout Sunni Muslim, Sharif has had a edge over the Bhutto clan, which has Shiite Muslim ties.

In addition, Nawaz Sharif has been involved in recent, secret talks -- sponsored by Saudi Arabia -- with the Taliban. Saudi Arabia, which has tremendous clout in Pakistan, would be supporting Sharif over Zardari, too. During his last term as prime minister (1997-1999) Sharif took steps to introduce sharia laws to Pakistan.

The war between Zardari and Sharif is a battle between corrupt politicians with ugly histories. Unfortunately, they are the politicians that Pakistan has. And unless the military takes power once again -- and that's not impossible, although President Obama's team ought to be telling them in no uncertain terms to stay put in their barracks -- they are the politicians who will be running Pakistan for the foreseeable future. Sad, but true.

Comments (13)

1. What if they get democracy, and vote in radical anti-western parties with ties to radical anti-western terrorist groups?

   This is a potential problem with democracy in Muslim countries.

   Posted by FDR43 at 03/17/2009 @ 6:47pm

2. Pretty amazing, sordid, entangling, soap-operaish, spiced w/presidential plane crash, hanging, assassinations.......

   And, through it all, Pakis managed to build the Bomb and fight a couple of wars w/India!

   Posted by Happy at 03/17/2009 @ 6:55pm

3. To FDR: Pakistan does have a democracy of sorts, and people do vote. In fact, the radical Muslim parties don't do very well, and the vast majority of Pakistanis reject them. The problem in Pakistan isn't that people don't vote, it's that the parties that they can choose from are weak and corrupt.

   Posted by RobertDreyfuss at 03/17/2009 @ 7:21pm

4. Posted by Happy at 03/17/2009 @ 6:55pm

   Anybody figure out where HAPP is going with that one? Or just figures he has to commment so the "conservative perspective" is duly represented???

   Posted by Mask at 03/17/2009 @ 7:31pm

5. Robert,

   It's a general concern. Of course our policies (unnecessary war in Iraq, virtualy unconditional support for Israel, etc) are turning many onto the radical Islamic cause. I hope you are right about Pakistan - remember, they have the bomb too.

   Posted by FDR43 at 03/17/2009 @ 7:32pm

6. "The war between Zardari and Sharif is a battle between corrupt politicians with ugly histories. "

   And it is probably being exploited, lol ... so, in point of fact the "terrorist scare" bears in relation to the "extended family" tragedy, as the self same tragedy does in relation to the shove Pakistan is-would get(ting) over the cliff of chaos, into oblivion.

   All true neo-cons, those who know and understand that the anagram n.c. has really, truly, meant and stood for Nazi Communist, from the beginning ... would love for Pakistan to fall.

   There is just too much end game potential in chaos (hence its systemic presence), for any looter of entrepreneurial or professional bent, worth his or her salt to pass it by.

   Posted by V at 03/17/2009 @ 11:19pm

7. Posted by RobertDreyfuss at 03/17/2009 @ 7:21pm | ignore this person | warn this person

   Though it probably doesn't help at all, in the development of Western-friendly democracy in Pakistan, that the primary exposure to the US that Pakistanis get either firsthand or through the media is the experience of armed drone aircraft operate by the US CIA raining Hellfire missiles and gatling gun fire down on their heads, on their own land.

   Posted by syfriendly at 03/18/2009 @ 10:58am

8. NAWAZ HYPOCRITE Nawaz Shariff loves to destabilize democracy and there is a long list of other politicians who share his fantasy of playing ugly role in failing Democracy. Nawaz Shariff is keep talking about Justice Iftikhar but he forgets that he was involved in attacking supreme court of Pakistan, on the other hand I think it will it be better for Justice Ifthikah to join PML(N) OR make his own political party because I am pretty sure that if Nawaz gets power, he will not reinstate him because Nawaz hands are not clean either. Nawaz Sharif is a big hypocrite. He had the Supreme Court physically attacked on 28th Nov 1997 but is now standing up for the independence of the judiciary just because he hates Musharraf. And another thing is that whatever these politicians want becomes the solution to everything. They wanted democracy, it was the "solution to everything". Now they want judiciary, it is the "solution to everything". Nawaz Sharif , talks of independence of judiciary but before doing that ,at least he should eliminate the culprits of Supreme court attack case from his party. A few months ago he categorically said the reinstatement of the judges is the most crucial issue facing the people of Pakistan. (Actually, I'm pretty sure the food and electricity crises are the most crucial issues facing the people of Pakistan. Then comes the threat of militancy and terrorism. You've got to put inflation in there too. Pakistani politicians have double standards, lets put it this way, Nawaz was after the daughter of chief justice Abdul Hameed Dogar but Nawaz forgets that Rules were bent in 1991 to admit Nawaz Sharif's daughter Mariam Nawaz to King Edward Medical College in Lahore . According to reports Mariam was a grade-B student in matric and FSc and scored 580 out of 850,

   Posted by khyber at 03/18/2009 @ 6:21pm

9. NAWAZ SHARIF AND OSAMA CONNECTION A former official of the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has said that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif met Osama Bin Laden and received funds from him. "Nawaz Sharif met Osama Bin Laden on at least three occasions and was desperately seeking his financial assistance," Khalid Khawaja told news website Adnkronos International (AKI) in an interview on Sunday. Khawaja, a retired officer of the Pakistan Air Force who was in the ISI in the late 80s, rejected a recent denial by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz that its leader had sought political cooperation from Bin Laden in the last. "Osama is above all this politicking," said Khawaja. Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal President Qazi Hussain Ahmed had said in a recent interview that Sharif had repeatedly met Bin Laden, who had offered him money to topple the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) government in 1990.

   Khawaja, who developed a friendship with Bin Laden while fighting against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 80s, told AKI that the Al Qaeda head wanted the "secular" PPP government overthrown to ensure that Pakistan continued supporting the Afghan "jihad". Khawaja said that Bin Laden gave him funds which he personally delivered to Sharif, AKI reported. "Sharif insisted that I arrange a direct meeting with the ‘sheikh', which I did in Saudi Arabia. Nawaz met Osama thrice in Saudi Arabia," Khawaja said.

   He said that the most "historic" meeting between the two men was held at the Green Palace Hotel in Madina. "Osama asked Nawaz to devote himself to ‘jihad in Kashmir'. Nawaz immediately said: ‘I love jihad.' Osama smiled, and … said. ‘Yes, you may love jihad, but your love for jihad is this much,' pointing to a small portion of a nearby pillar. ‘Your love for your children is this muc

   Posted by khyber at 03/18/2009 @ 7:00pm

10. There is just too much end game potential in chaos (hence its systemic presence), for any looter of entrepreneurial or professional bent, worth his or her salt to pass it by.

    Posted by V at 03/17/2009 @ 11:19pm | ignore this person | warn this person

    Say what??? You apparently know more than anyone else about all Pakistan has that is exploitable! Please tell us of their natural and industrial riches that everyone covets??? This should be good!

    Posted by comancheamerican at 03/18/2009 @ 11:24pm

11. Pakistan is a region more highly suitable for India to do its nuclear testing on, lacking any deserted islands with which to practice! Having almost happened once, it is not unlikely that it could get that precarious again and soon.

    Posted by comancheamerican at 03/18/2009 @ 11:34pm

12. Pakistan is a region more highly suitable for India to do its nuclear testing on, lacking any deserted islands with which to practice! Having almost happened once, it is not unlikely that it could get that precarious again and soon.

    Posted by comancheamerican at 03/18/2009 @ 11:34pm | ignore this person | warn this person

    whichever governments rule pakistan and india, keeping them from lobbing nukes at each other is the ultimate issue. otherwise, what might or might not be going on in pakistan right now is something to avoid and obama would do well to stay away.

    Posted by kennyboy at 03/19/2009 @ 06:34am

13. another aspect that all three powerbrokers ( Zardari, Sharif and Army ) indulge in to keep the masses on the edge is the constant ongoing meddling with India..... bombings in Mumbia is just a recent example of it.

    Posted by concerned09 at 03/19/2009 @ 11:36am