Political Crisis in Israel May Boost Hawks

The former Mossad agent who leads Israel's ruling party, Kadima, failed in her effort to put together a government, but there's a chance that Tzipi Livni will never become prime minister. That's because Israel's leading uber-hawk, Bibi Netanyahu, is making strong showings in the polls in the run up to what seems likely to be an election early in 2009. A Netanyahu victory would make neoconservatives delirious with joy. For earth's human population, however, the news isn't so good.

Early polls show Livni with a small edge over Netanyahu in an Israeli election, in which voters choose parties, not personalities. One poll suggests Kadima would win 29 seats, Netanyahu's Likud 26, and Labor (which used to dominate Israel overwhelmingly) just 11. That would be a big gain for Likud, which has only 12 seats today.

Other polls give Likud as many as 30 seats, and Haaretz, the Israeli daily, suggests that Netanyahu is starting to smell victory:

"After two and a half years of warming the opposition benches with a paltry 12 seats, after the party was nearly decimated in the 2006 elections following the Kadima split, the members of Likud are starting to smell the old, familiar scent of power.

"The energy is back, the polls are flattering, the alliance with Shas has been renewed and the future seems promising. Likud is the only party that genuinely sought general elections. Plus, ever since the Second Lebanon War ended, Likud had been consistently leading in the polls."

Kadima, of course, is not really a political party with a following. It was a one-man show created by Ariel Sharon, the coma-stricken superhawk who helped found the Likud bloc way back in the days of Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir of the old Herut party. When Sharon broke up Likud, he brought various right-wing and centrist politicians into Kadima. But when Sharon fell ill, his colorless successor Ehud Olmert plunged to support levels in the single digits, and Livni is not exactly charismatic. Netanyahu, a wild-eyed radical, is a charismatic former general who rocketed to fame when his brother was killed in an Israeli commando raid into Uganda in 1976. Netanyahu, who speaks flawless, elegant English and carries himself with a tough-guy swagger, finds his chief constituency among hard-right American Jews and neocons.

But violence could boost Netanyahu. Any extremist Palestinian faction with a few bombs -- think Islamic Jihad or some radical wing of Hamas -- could tilt the election in his favor by plotting a few attacks and scaring Israelis into voting for the tough guy. The AP reports that Livni's "advantage [in the polls] was narrow and could easily evaporate -- especially if new Israeli-Palestinian violence erupts."

The Israeli far right is chomping at the bit for new elections. There are, in Israel, parties even more far right than Netanyahu's already woo-woo views, such as the Yisrael Beiteinu bloc, which is pushing hard for new elections.

Needless to say, new elections in Israel would put the final nail in the coffin of the long-dead, Bush-sponsored "peace process" that has been sputtering along to nowhere. But it also will put a huge roadblock in the path of an incoming Obama administration, since Israeli politics will be chaotic for the foreseeable future:

"The peace process could be delayed up to a year,'' Uzi Baram, a political strategist and former cabinet minister from the Labor Party, said in an interview [with Bloomberg]. "We have to have elections, then a government will have to be formed and then it will take time until that government begins functioning fully.''

Incidentally, Livni's bid to create a governing coalition fell apart when she wouldn't give in to the demands of a small, religious party that Jerusalem, Israel's capital, not be divided in any deal with the Palestinians. That is an ominous portent. And settler violence is increasing, as the Israeli army takes steps here and there to reign in the most egregious illegal settlement activity in the West Bank. Many right-wing and religious parties support the settler movement.

Comments (44)

1. Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/27/2008 @ 09:43am

   LVLIB drooling at the prospect of another good ol' "Historic/Biblical Israel Or Die!" government in Jerusalem.

   BTW, why did Netanyahu lose before? Remind me?

   Posted by Maskdelta at 10/27/2008 @ 09:50am

2. Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/27/2008 @ 10:00am

   Well, first off, you can't beat the irony of you listing as 2 of the reasons that Netanyahu failed being "He had an affair and hard-core righties didn't forgive him"....and "Clinton went after him"!....LOL

   (BTW, here's where you say "Netanyahu REALLY apologized for his adultery; Clinton didn't!!!!")

   But second, you might want to throw in that Netanyahu lost support among the Right because...despite the "three 'no's"...he DID negotiate with Arafat, despite being "tough on terrorists" in his rhetoric.

   Quite similar to Reagan who, as we are now learning, was actually looking at a complete nuclear disarmament deal with Gorbachev, despite the rhetoric and "history" that is the Reagan Mythos.

   Actually, I think a Bibi victory is possible too...and that it will NOT be the glorious "Zionism now, Zionism tomorrrow, Zionism forever" (to paraphrase Wallace) Prime Ministership you expect.

   BTW, do you think Netanyahu is a "leftist" on economics....by our American standard?

   Posted by Maskdelta at 10/27/2008 @ 10:08am

3. I shared months ago that Netanyahu would become Prime Minister. At least Israel hasn't lost it's mind the way US voters appear to have.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/27/2008 @ 09:43am | warn this person

   Liv - just go to YouTube and query Israeli Settlers Beat Palestinians and you will find many wonderful video clips to brighten your day along with your morning coffee. The hypocrisy of your "biblical context" is infinite.

   Posted by OneVote at 10/27/2008 @ 10:39am

4. Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/27/2008 @ 10:30am

   Hmmmmm?....I'll take that for a "yes"!

   LOL

   Posted by Maskdelta at 10/27/2008 @ 10:49am

5. Would this be the serious crisis that Senator Biden is predicting that Obama will be tested by?

   Posted by Mistral at 10/27/2008 @ 11:10am

6. >>>Incidentally, Livni's bid to create a governing coalition fell apart when she wouldn't give in to the demands of a small, religious party that Jerusalem, Israel's capital, not be divided in any deal with the Palestinians.<<<

   These early election polls should not be believed. Polls of Israelis have continued to show broad support for peace, much broader than what is reflected in this election poll.

   Netanyahu is a throw-back to the past, and Israel needs CHANGE from this tough-guy-fan-the-flames-politics even more than the US.

   Posted by Metteyya at 10/27/2008 @ 11:19am

7. If I were Livni, I would step aside and let the party pick the most prominent dark-skinned Sephardic Jew they can find and run a CHANGE WE NEED campaign just like Obama.

   Peace is in Israel's best economic and security interest and Likud would be a step backward into tit-for-tat violence, saber-rattling and divisive politcs.

   Posted by Metteyya at 10/27/2008 @ 11:24am

8. Israel needs peace! The days of massive tank battles are over. Any offensive action against Israel will take the form of non-nuclear missile attacks. They will be dispersed and hard to find. Any counter attack by the IDF will have to deal with a defense in depth and a war of attrition. Israel will face a bloody stalemate similar to Iraq. Netayahu will get a lot of people killed if he is elected and aggressive.

   Posted by P. J. Casey at 10/27/2008 @ 1:15pm

9. SCENARIOS: How Obama, McCain are faring in key states Reuters - 2 hours ago (Reuters) - Next week's US presidential election will be decided in a handful of battleground states where opinion polls show Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican rival John McCain. Obama lashes McCain as Bush 'clone' eTaiwan News Obama takes on states that voted Bush guardian.co.uk

   Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

10. Syria hits out at US 'terrorism' BBC News - 1 hour ago Syria's foreign minister has accused the US of an act of "terrorist aggression" over what it says was a helicopter raid inside its territory. Iraq says raid on Syria targeted insurgents Reuters Syrians hold funerals for people killed in US raid The Associated Press

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

11. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

12. Mideast press ponders Israel vote BBC News - 4 hours ago Israeli and Arab newspapers view aspects of possible snap elections in Israel, looking both at Kadima leader Tzipi Livni's personal performance, and Israeli and Mideast politics as a whole. Israel poll bounce shows Livni leading Netanyahu Reuters India Israel's Netanyahu launches campaign The Associated Press

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

13. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

14. US launches raid in Syria after move into Pakistan The Associated Press - 48 minutes ago WASHINGTON (AP) - The startling US commando attack inside Syrian territory over the weekend appears to amplify an emerging message to countries suspected of giving safe passage to terrorists: Take action, or else the US will. US forces kill eight in raid on Syria guardian.co.uk Iraq says deadly raid on Syria targeted rebel area AFP

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

15. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:17pm

16. Former Obama Adviser Meets Syria's Assad Ayman Abdel Nour 10.21.08, 12:00 AM ET Dugg on Forbes.com The Promised Warrior ? Ron Paul Vs. Alexander Hamilton KBR gets military projects worth $197 million GPU Will Make Apple's Snow Leopard Purr Visit The Forbes.com Digg Channel Syria's official media was keen to deliver special coverage of President Bashar Al-Assad's Oct. 16 meeting with Robert Malley, head of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group and erstwhile informal adviser to U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:18pm

17. SOLANA SATISFIED OVER INDIRECT PEACE TALKS BETWEEN SYRIA, ISRAEL 08:58, October 23, 2008 Visiting EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana on Wednesday expressed satisfaction over the indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel through Turkey's mediation, local official SANA news agency reported. "Our persistent position is to achieve a comprehensive peace in the region and the Europeans would like to be instrumental in this process," Solana was quoted as saying upon his arrival here on Wednesday evening.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:18pm

18. SCENARIOS: How Obama, McCain are faring in key states Reuters - 2 hours ago (Reuters) - Next week's US presidential election will be decided in a handful of battleground states where opinion polls show Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican rival John McCain. Obama lashes McCain as Bush 'clone' eTaiwan News Obama takes on states that voted Bush guardian.co.uk

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:18pm

19. US launches raid in Syria after move into Pakistan The Associated Press - 48 minutes ago WASHINGTON (AP) - The startling US commando attack inside Syrian territory over the weekend appears to amplify an emerging message to countries suspected of giving safe passage to terrorists: Take action, or else the US will. US forces kill eight in raid on Syria guardian.co.uk Iraq says deadly raid on Syria targeted rebel area AFP

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:18pm

20. Mideast press ponders Israel vote BBC News - 4 hours ago Israeli and Arab newspapers view aspects of possible snap elections in Israel, looking both at Kadima leader Tzipi Livni's personal performance, and Israeli and Mideast politics as a whole. Israel poll bounce shows Livni leading Netanyahu Reuters India Israel's Netanyahu launches campaign The Associated Press

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:18pm

21. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:19pm

22. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:19pm

23. US launches raid in Syria after move into Pakistan The Associated Press - 48 minutes ago WASHINGTON (AP) - The startling US commando attack inside Syrian territory over the weekend appears to amplify an emerging message to countries suspected of giving safe passage to terrorists: Take action, or else the US will. US forces kill eight in raid on Syria guardian.co.uk Iraq says deadly raid on Syria targeted rebel area AFP

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:19pm

24. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:19pm

25. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:19pm

26. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:20pm

27. well, at least we've got youtube.com

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA3TPJ-jTDM&fmt=18

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 1:26pm

28. Frosty,

    Sometimes you need to come back to earth and touch base with reality, if only for a moment.----Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/27/2008 @ 1:43pm |

    Oh, I HAVE to save that one....heheh

    Posted by Maskdelta at 10/27/2008 @ 2:11pm

29. "a major challenge ..."

    From a country with the combined population of Brooklyn + Queens.

    Something is catastrophically out of whack here.

    Posted by sloper at 10/27/2008 @ 3:29pm

30. FZ: where do u find the time to find this stuff on youtube?

    That one reminded me of a nightclub act I saw in Belem, Brazil, 14 years ago -- about US Indians & cowboys & pilgrims. Belem itself reminded me of Brooklyn (culturally, socially, not physically) when I was kid in the late '50s.

    You got eclectic tastes, FZ, so how come you don't like the duhvine Sarah?

    Posted by sloper at 10/27/2008 @ 3:43pm

31. Off Topic,

    Govenor Ted Stevens found "guilty as sin" on all counts. Just another Repug whi thinks the world owes him a living. Damn Socialist..

    Posted by chaoszen at 10/27/2008 @ 4:03pm

32. Now the Repugs will start eating their own. Down in the polls, gonna lose the election. Time to start infeeding. The koolaid drinking Zombies are just in time for Haloween.

    What a great time to be alive...

    Posted by chaoszen at 10/27/2008 @ 4:12pm

33. Hurry down to the nearest gun show and buy your favorite Zombie hunting weapon. And remember Zombie's come out night or day. Unlike their Vamp cousins.. Some of them even have a pleasant appearance. Like Elizabeth Hasselbeck.

    Posted by chaoszen at 10/27/2008 @ 4:21pm

34. Posted by chaoszen at 10/27/2008 @ 4:21pm | ignore this person | warn this person

    "A philosophical zombie, p-zombie or p-zed is a hypothetical being that is indistinguishable from a normal human being except that it lacks conscious experience, qualia, sentience, or sapience. When a zombie is poked with a sharp object, for example, it does not feel any pain. However, it behaves exactly as if it does feel pain (it may say "ouch" and recoil from the stimulus), but it does not actually have the experience of pain as a putative 'normal' person does."

    hmmm...p-zeds...

    Posted by dexter666 at 10/27/2008 @ 4:56pm

35. Robert Dreyfuss cannot write a sentence, certainly when it comes to Israel, without pejorative adjectives. It seems he wants no one to be in doubt as to where he stands visa vis the Jewish state.

    He belongs to hominidae regressing into a subspecies where a bladder of churning hormones handles all thinking. This makes measured speech, particularly regarding Zionists, as difficult for Robert as typing with his toes.

    So what is his present barking and scratching about?

    As I understand it, the ruling Kadima Party, under the leadership of the present foreign minister, Tzipi Livni , lacks a majority in the Knesset. Having rejected the demands of its former ally, the Shas Party , and unable to find a new coalition partner, it stands before the alternative of going to the country and electing a new parliament.

    That is not a big deal, that is parliamentary democracy.

    Posted by Hugo_Pirovano at 10/27/2008 @ 8:35pm

36. You got eclectic tastes, FZ, so how come you don't like the duhvine Sarah?

    Posted by sloper at 10/27/2008 @ 3:43pm

    i just searched for the song "superbacana" and found that wacky version of what is a wacky song.

    "Caetano Emanuel Viana Teles Veloso (born August 7, 1942), better known as Caetano Veloso, is a composer, singer, guitarist, writer, and political activist. He has been called "one of the greatest songwriters of the century"[1] and is sometimes considered to be the Bob Dylan of Brazil.[2] Veloso is most known for his participation in the Brazilian musical movement Tropicalismo which encompassed theatre, poetry and music in the 1960s, at the beginning of the Brazilian military dictatorship."

    <i>Podemos ser amigos simplesmente

    Coisas do amor nunca mais

    Amores do passado, do presente

    Repetem velhos temas tão banais</i>

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 9:19pm

37. Frosty,

    Sometimes you need to come back to earth and touch base with reality, if only for a moment.

    Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/27/2008 @ 1:43pm

    and you need to walk in the garden.....

    and let the garden walk in you.

    once again, respectfully,

    fz.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 9:21pm

38. Scratched by Hugo_Pirovano at 10/27/2008

    actually, i believe mr. dreyfuss is dismayed at the prospect of another crappy israeli government.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 9:25pm

39. "Bush was so afraid of a snafu and of upsetting Israel that he gave the whole thing a miss," Jackson said. "Barack will change that," he added, "because, as long as the Palestinians haven't seen justice, the Middle East will 'remain a source of danger to us all.'"

    "Barack is determined to repair our relations with the world of Islam and Muslims," Jackson said. "Thanks to his background and ecumenical approach, he knows how Muslims feel while remaining committed to his own faith."

    tell'em Jesse

    Posted by bleedingheart at 10/27/2008 @ 10:20pm

40. Posted by bleedingheart at 10/27/2008 @ 10:20pm |

    CRABWALK....do REAL Naderites loathe Jesse Jackson as much as your average right-winger does??!?!!??!?

    LOL

    Posted by Maskdelta at 10/27/2008 @ 11:07pm

41. amen......

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 11:21pm

42. testing,,,,,,,,,,

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 11:28pm

43. to jesse, that is.

    hey mask, it's been a real long time since we've had a timewarp, n'est-ce pas?

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 11:29pm

44. Posted by frosty zoom at 10/27/2008 @ 11:29pm

    Maybe Joan Goodall has finally worked out some of the bugs on this site.

    Now, if we could just get back to "Post a post and it takes you back to the thread you were posting on, not back to the Home Page"!

    Oh...and LINKS!

    Posted by Maskdelta at 10/28/2008 @ 10:05am