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RedditThe U.S. embassy and military command has once again started to raise accusations about Iranian "meddling" in Iraq. Of course, one man's meddling is another man's pursuit of national interests, but whatever you call it, there does indeed seem reason to believe that Iran has stepped up its power-play in Iraq as part of what you might call an "end-game" strategy.
Why end game? Because like everyone else, Iran has figured out that Barack Obama will be the next president, and they're positioning themselves for what will be a struggle for power and influence in Baghdad. Among other things, as I was told often during my visit to Iran last spring, Tehran sees Iraq as kind of a bargaining chip in its relations with the United States.
Tehran's main goals in Iraq have always been (1) to ensure that Iraq would remain a weak, fragmented state that cannot pose a threat to Iran, (2) to prevent the return to power of the powerfully anti-Iranian Sunni bloc, (3) to guarantee that Iran's Shiite majority would maintain a grip on the levers of power in Baghdad, and (4) that the United States not use Iraq as a launching pad for a regime-change strategy toward Iran. By now, Iran is likely confident that it has secured all of those goals. Now it can use its influence in Iraq to leverage its relations with the new Obama administration.
Earlier this week, General Ray Odierno overtly accused Iran of trying to block the Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq. Said Odierno:
"Clearly, this is one they're having a full court press on to try to ensure there's never any bilateral agreement between the United States and Iraq. We know that there are many relationships with people here for many years going back to when Saddam was in charge, and I think they're utilizing those contacts to attempt to influence the outcome of the potential vote in the council of representatives."
He accused Iran of trying to "bribe" Iraq lawmakers to vote against SOFA, saying that "there are many intelligence reports [that Iranians are] coming in to pay off people to vote against it."
There can't really be any doubt that Iran is using all of its clout, behind the scenes, including cash payments, to undermine the US-Iraq accord, and probably successfully. And it starts at the top, with Prime Minister Maliki, many of whose personal security detail and the people who fly the Iraqi version of Air Force One are Iranians, according to confidential Iraqi sources.
A leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP), a fundamentalist Sunni party tied to the Muslim Brotherhood organization, just visited Iran to get his arm twisted. Mahmoud Mashhadani, the speaker of the Iraqi parliament, visited Iran earlier this week and, according to the Tehran Times the visit focused on the "restoration of the dignity and independence of Iraq," in other words, opposition to the SOFA. A top Iranian military official, Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, lambasted the SOFA during Mashhadani's visit. Said the deputy chief of Iran's armed forces:
"The Iraqi people won't be deceived by propaganda and the psychological warfare launched by the U.S. and its allies to pressure the Iraqi government to approve the security deal. Undoubtedly, the Iraqi leaders are careful of any mischief in this regard and won't allow Iraqi history be stained with such a disgrace."
Meanwhile, Iran is strengthening its on-the-ground military presence in Iraq. At CNN, Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr reports that there are at least three separate paramilitary groups growing in Iraq that are directly backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. She reports:
"According to the latest assessment of U.S. intelligence, the Iranian effort has broken into three main groups: Asaib-al-Haq; Kataib Hezbollah; and a reorganized so-called 'special groups' effort, the official said."He noted that the first two groups represent fighters are coordinated by Iranian elements, instead of Iraqi cleric Muqtada al Sadr's group, which formerly controlled them.
"'They are now directly funded and trained by the IRGC,' the U.S. official said. It is believed the IRGC is trying to model this effort after Hezbollah in Lebanon, he said."
The "special groups" are paramilitary forces formerly associated with Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, but now, apparently, completely independent of Sadr.
Over the past several months the U.S military command has reported the capture of a number of officials of Kataib Hezbollah, and a military official told me: "We believe Kata'ib Hezbollah receives support from Iran."
Starr also reports:
"The U.S. military ... recently arrested an Iraqi general who says he was paid by Iran to derail a pending agreement that would allow U.S. troops to remain in Iraq after the end of the year."The general was arrested a few weeks ago at the Iranian border carrying large sums of cash, according to the source. The man has known ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the U.S. official said."
So which is it? Meddling, or pursuit of national interest. It sounds the same to me. Either way, it's real. In an interview, a top expert on Iraq told me: "Every time the United States starts to put pressure on Maliki, he goes running to Iran for support." And Iran is there for him. Maliki, who is not entirely in Iran's pocket, is heavily dependend on the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq for his political survival, and ISCI is widely known to be on Iran's payroll.
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Robert Dreyfuss
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how dare they!
it's as if they were invading the country!
such gall!
Posted by frosty zoom at 10/15/2008 @ 11:15am
lvliberty-Actually,it is your side of the fence that is aiding Iran in their attempts to expand their control of the ME by getting rid of Saddam and creating an islamic state in Iraq that will be pro Iran and anti Israel.You are,also,uniting Iranians behind a govt that many,particularly the youth,don't like by threatening them.
Posted by i'm nobody at 10/15/2008 @ 11:57am
and just imagine if we had never gone there to begin with!!!
oh well. lay this debacle at the feet of those who caused it...
our godly leader!!!!!
Posted by dexter666 at 10/15/2008 @ 12:03pm
Posted by lvliberty1 at 10/15/2008 @ 11:48am
LVLIB...pre-2003, Iraq was a SUNNI dominated government with a dictator who hated Iran and did what he could to thwart them.
post-2003, Iraq has a SHIITE dominated government that invites Ahmadinejad over for tea.
So WHO supported "Iran's attempts to expand their control in the ME"???????
Posted by Maskdelta at 10/15/2008 @ 12:16pm
Seems to me that Saddam, after his defeat in the first gulf war, was left with the military hardware to decimate the Shia opposition even further. Could this contribute to Maliki's "independent" spirit?
Posted by Sorelish at 10/15/2008 @ 12:20pm
Shocking, absolutely shocking ... Iran thinks it has a national security interest in its next-door neighbor ... the one currently occupied by a foreign army from half way round the world ... a foreign army from a country that helped finance & arm the dictator who invaded Iran from that same country ...
... and now Iran dares, dares outrageously to concern itself in Iraq.
The nerve.
Posted by sloper at 10/15/2008 @ 3:47pm
Good goobely-moobely; how hard was this to see coming? The brainiac neo-coms decide to pick a war with one of the wseaker countries in the ME (although still ruled by a pain-in-the-ass) whosr population had a natural gravitation towards the Shi'a mullahs in Iran. They go in, win a swift, but surface deep, victory and decide democracy for the Iraqis is a good idea. Which it is in general. But,as we found out in the Gaza Strip, unless your buddies at Diebod are running the election for you, democracy can get messy at times. So we have three distinct districts of an artificially bordered (in the first place) Iraq. Some for the Kurds, some for the Sunnis and the Lion's share for the Shi'ites. Soon to join their theological brethren as an unofficial, or maybe even an official part of greater Ira. I swear these people would fuck up a two car funeral if you gave them the hearse. BRILLIANT!!
Posted by The Goods at 10/15/2008 @ 6:02pm
'Earlier this week, General Ray Odierno overtly accused Iran of trying to block the Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq. Said Odierno:
"Clearly, this is one they're having a full court press on to try to ensure there's never any bilateral agreement between the United States and Iraq. We know that there are many relationships with people here for many years going back to when Saddam was in charge, and I think they're utilizing those contacts to attempt to influence the outcome of the potential vote in the council of representatives."
He accused Iran of trying to "bribe" Iraq lawmakers to vote against SOFA, saying that "there are many intelligence reports [that Iranians are] coming in to pay off people to vote against it." '
Anyone notice the irony of the above? Sounds like a splendid example of how our government works. Change the names to USA and Israel, substitute council of representatives with US Congress, and I just don't see the difference. I think Iraq has learned the democratic lesson very well - bribes for votes - and allowing meddling of foreigners in our internal & foreign affairs and policy - sounds like they (Iraq) are well on the road to our brand of glorious democracy. Well done USA! Indeed...we can claim victory now.
Posted by OneVote at 10/15/2008 @ 6:50pm
Out of the middle east now!!
Where is THAT Obama?
Posted by bleedingheart at 10/15/2008 @ 11:49pm
I actually was quite entertained by General Odierno accusation because it sounded hilariously like the deals going down on K Street or the Palms.
I also wondered why we were even in Iraq, given that they were merrily trading with China and Maliki was happily flying to Germany and being entertained (!) by dearest ally Angela Merkel, who is delighted to find business for her buddies.
Given that their trade with non coalition partners seems to be zipping along quite robustly, I am sure they can take care of their security needs nicely and Iran, Turkey, Syria and other neighbors can pitch in and help.
Alas, after this wishful fantasy, came the announcement that indeed, apparently Iraq and us have indeed reached agreement till 2011. Dashed again.
If on the other hand, we want a station for a few troops to keep a watchful eye on Iran, Iraq etc, we already have Georgia.
Not only do we already have observers there, we also have apparently USA contract military, merrily wearing Georgia Christin Cross insignia along with USA Stars and Stripes.
http://tinyurl.com/3l57wh
So we look all set.
As long as we keep those Blackwater folks out of trouble, we should be fine. Of course, the predicate is, as long as.
We dont know how long.
The Russians have been showing a picture of the USA contractor merrily showing his Georgian friends how to make what clearly looks like an IED.
http://tinyurl.com/3l57wh
This is picture no 4, ya can go back and forth to see them all.
The guy in fatigues has a label saying McKeown on one side, USA contractor on the other, and 2 flags, the USA Stars and Stripes and the Georgia Christin Cross on his shoulder.
That does not look like a definition of staying out of trouble.
But let's ask General Odierno, he seems to be quite the expert.
Posted by MinnieB9 at 10/16/2008 @ 04:11am
This national emphasis on fighting the Crusades over and over again is really tiring and the crimes committed against Iran in this respect are monumental. In the modern era, the US intelligence community has interfered with Iraq's sovereignty since the 1950's from assassinating a popular president in 1954, arming Saddam Hussein -- remember him -- to take hostile military actions against Iran. Now, the Bush administration and Congress are using the nuclear issue to further that agenda.
Progressives know that it's all about the oil, just as the war in Iraq is all about the oil. Here, the US is in a financial meltdown which was telegraphed many years ago -- the only folks who didn't see the sign were the uniformed, the misinformed, and the politically blind -- and what the Administration wants Americans to focus on is any thing but. So, let's bring out the tried and true opiate -- religious fervor against Muslims couched in other terms.
What Americans should be focused on are bringing justice to bear on the folks who caused this debacle, beginning at the top of the list: W and Vice. Then, there are the war crimes. Read more about them here: http://www.consumersforpeace.org/pdf/war_crimes_iraq_101006.pdf with more background info at http://www.thankyoult.org/content/view/53/39/.
Continuing to support the spending the nation's resources and intellectual energy on unsustainable and unwarranted military adventures represents, IMHO, an even greater crime.
Posted by afrothetics at 10/17/2008 @ 1:40pm
Iran could turn up the heat in Iraq causing President Obama to use more military force. The rest of the world thinks "just another imperialist".
It's a quagmeyer remember. The POLLS say the citizens want OUT.
What happened to getting out?
Everyone knows it's easier to break things than fix them. Bush proved that.
All Iran has to do is break something now and again.
OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT! OUT!
Posted by bleedingheart at 10/20/2008 @ 12:50am
Should Obama be elected he will discover that he has little ability to change US policy with respect to Iraq.
Iran has already discovered that it has far less ability to affect Baghdad then it supposed. Ways to disable Iran's electrically triggered IEDs have been found. Iran's gunmen have been licked. Iran's lackey, Sadr has been swaddled in wet diapers. The end game the mullahs need to worry about is in Tehran.
Iran's economy is on life support. Oil production has barely the level of 30 years ago, the Shah's time. Indeed the amount of oil available for export is now far less. The local economy requires one third of it and local refineries cannot crack that much.
The oil bubble which has kept the country from economic collapse has been punctured. Unless the oil price recovers, and certainly if it continues to decline, the end game Ahmedinejad has to worry about will be right at home.
Posted by Hugo_Pirovano at 10/20/2008 @ 03:41am