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RedditIran is in the news again today, with reports that it has test-fired missiles with a range of 1,200 miles. "Our hands are always on the trigger and our missiles are ready for launch," blustered a general from Iran's Revolutionary Guard. That sent oil prices up again. It also fueled the debate about the Bush Administration's plan to put missiles in eastern Europe. And it caused more speculation about a U.S. and/or Israeli preemptive strike against Iran. I'm not worried.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad doesn't seem to be worried, either, since he referred to such threats as a "funny joke." He added, "I assure you that there won't be any war in the future." Funny or not, Iran also threatened to set Israel "on fire" and to close down the Persian Gulf outlet if Iran were attacked. Still, I'm not worried.
Last week, in The Dreyfuss Report, I wrote about the comments of Admiral Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said clearly that the United States is not planning war with Iran and doesn't want one.
Now, via ArmsControlWonk, we learn that Tony Cordesman, a sober, realist-minded conservative analyst, was in Israel last week, and had this to say:
Cordesman is visiting Israel this week, and gave a lecture yesterday at Tel Aviv University and at Hebrew University on Sunday. He talked about Mullen's comments last week in Washington when the Admiral said such an Israeli attack would be dangerous and could destabilize the Middle East. Mullen spoke after returning from a visit to Israel, during which he met with Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi and other senior IDF officers.Cordesman said Mullen came to Israel to deliver a message that Israel did not have a green light to attack Iran and that it would not receive U.S. support for such a move.
According to Cordesman, Mullen was expressing the official opinion of the U.S. administration, including that of President George W. Bush and the National Security Council.
There can't be any attack on Iran. First, the United States and its allies now find it impossible to blame Iran for supporting terrorism in Iraq since Iraq is relatively quiet. (In fact, I believe Iran is working hard behind the scenes to damp down intra-Shiite fighting, persuading Muqtada al-Sadr to behave himself, and pushing Nouri al-Maliki's government to start talking about an American military withdrawal.) Second, the United States can't credibly use Iran's nuclear program as a pretext for an attack. That rationale was demolished by the CIA last year, via the National Intelligence Estimate that Iran had stopped work on a bomb in 2003. And now Iran is signalling its readiness to negotiate, saying talk will begin within days:
Iran expects talks on its disputed nuclear program to begin within days, a senior Iranian official said in remarks published on Wednesday."Now the West has accepted to start negotiations with Iran and this is the best way," Mohammad Saeedi said when asked about possible talks with European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana. "Our diplomacy is based on negotiations."
Saeedi, deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, was quoted by Fars news agency as saying: "Talks will start in the next few days and at that time many issues will become clear."
In my opinion, progressives ought to worry a lot more about the real wars we're fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, not the one we aren't going to have with Iran.
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Robert Dreyfuss
A chronicle of America's adventures in foreign policy and national security.
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If you think that Iran will negotiate in earnest, you are kidding yourself. They have always said one thing and done another. It's the M.O. You are also kidding yourself that the Isrealis won't attack without American approval.
Posted by abell12ct at 07/09/2008 @ 10:35am
abell-What has Iran done?
Posted by i'm nobody at 07/09/2008 @ 10:37am
The Shiites are in the driver's seat now in Iraq & their cousins in Iran are riding high, a powerhouse in the region. The MIC is salivating over this, very apparently just what they planned.
Posted by Sorelish at 07/09/2008 @ 11:19am
This is a good step. Iran through their oil and just sheer ability to shutdown oil exports in the region have enough power that fighting them is just not a smart idea. Negotiation is the only way to go right now. No matter what Abell says if we tell Israel not to act it won't act. As much bluster as Israel has they depend on us for weapons. So if we tell them they don't have our support and they will not receive any help from us then they won't win. If Israel went to direct war with the Revolutionary Guard with no support from America they would probably win but it would be a long and bloody battle. They might lose if they pissed off Iran enough that it enlisted the help of other Arab countries. Then Israel's destruction would be by no fault of anyone but theirs because THEY started the fight.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/09/2008 @ 12:49pm
Also abell. I know you are bloodthirsty as ever and want war with Iran but you don't even begin to understand the global impact that can have. Iran will negotiate and America will to. I think Bush was ready to go to war but now not so much because he has seen the things just the THREAT of war with Iran has done to the oil industry and other industries. Now he knows this is not simply a matter of shooting from the hip. This is something that needs to be thought out. I think he is finally learning that you don't shoot from the hip, you have to deliberate and think about the global impact before taking the country to war. I can't believe I am saying this but.... Kudos Bush for backing off this one.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/09/2008 @ 12:53pm
"Our hands are always on the trigger and our missiles are ready for launch," blustered a general from Iran's Revolutionary Guard."
∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞
i guess they need more oil money for more weapons.
"That sent oil prices up again."
∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞∞
yep!
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 1:02pm
My! $300-Oil-Dreyfuss is backpeddling fast!
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 12:13pm
you know,
"peace" just may break out in sept/oct,
just in time to lower gas prices for november.
and the 'hostage" u.s. consumers will be released from pumpnapping until february.
and the iranians just may get (secretly, of course) that nifty new weapon system that made them SO envious of the saudis.
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 1:14pm
I do not see a preemptive strike by Iran, because the Palestinians would suffer and Jerusalem would be damaged. If Israel or the U.S. preemptively attacked Iran, you might see non- nuclear missile strikes on Israel. The preemptive use of nuclear weapons should be a non-starter. These countries are rather close together, and the attacker would suffer collateral damage either through blast or radiation effects or, at best, radioactive fallout, depending on the changing wind direction. Everybody would be in trouble if the nuclear facilities in Israel and Iran were hit. There would be a number of Chernobyls.
Posted by P. J. Casey at 07/09/2008 @ 3:05pm
The Shiites are in the driver's seat now in Iraq
notsofast. in the driver's seat while the US military is riding shotgun.
I believe the sunni will be back in power once the US leaves.
oh, and gas prices will never go down again
Posted by emile duBois at 07/09/2008 @ 3:05pm
We must have an enemy to justify the transfer of wealth escalated military spending represents. From that perspective, Iran is a godsend. Right now we are importing a ton of fear an hour from Iran, now that the fear market in China is starting to break up a little...
Wall Street is happy to assist Iran with their finances for military spending too.
But remind me again why it is necessary for Americans to kill Iranians? Oh wait, it's because they're crazy, right?
Posted by ginza00 at 07/09/2008 @ 3:16pm
Ya think Israel "just may" have Iran neatly taken care of by then? What a wonderful world it would be.....
What about Hamas or Hezbo?
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 2:22pm
what i mean are "overtures" that will "calm" the "market".
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 3:22pm
You know, I was freaked out by Ahmadinejad claiming the holocaust never occured. But I discovered that's not what he said at all. He simply had the audacity to comment that actual census numbers in Europe during the 30's put the Jewish population more in the 2 to 3 million range. He questioned where the 6 million figure came from.
Ahmadinejad's real threat is his desire to trade oil in Euros rather than dollars.
Want to hear something funny? Oil prices are being increased artificially by the Fed. OPEC is reinvesting the money by using their gains to purchase American debt incurred in the mortgage "crisis" bailout and the Iraq war. We are being taxed through the pump and we don't even know it! Pretty good trick!
Posted by ginza00 at 07/09/2008 @ 3:30pm
Want to hear something funny?
Posted by ginza00
finally.
thank you.
but the debt isn't just from the mortgage deal and the iraq folly,
it's pervasive like holes in a sponge.
"Ahmadinejad's real threat is his desire to trade oil in Euros rather than dollars."
now, where have i heard that kinda talk before?
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 3:42pm
Happy-The problem is that no one seems to have real skin when it comes to the ME game.It's like another planet to even those who have been there a bit.
Posted by i'm nobody at 07/09/2008 @ 4:34pm
Obama can con a whole of of Libs and Demos, and just about all blacks, but somehow, I don't think anybody with real skin in the ME `game', is conned by his Magicness! Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 4:24pm
Hmm. Tell me. How does acknowledging that Iran is dangerous then also rule out negotiations? All of the states you talk about are very miniscule threats to the US. Like you said any weapons they develop would not be used here. So when it comes to the US we are not under much of a threat. However a country can still be dangerous. Keep spinning Happy. Your head will pop right off.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/09/2008 @ 4:43pm
What a wonderful world it would be.....
another war with many killed. whatta a lunatic.
you people engage with such pondscum? these creeps need to be ignored, so that the grown ups can talk.
Posted by emile duBois at 07/09/2008 @ 5:31pm
The idea of an American war with Iran is insane. The Iranian people are not our enemies.
Israel isn't threatened. US isn't threatened. The flow of oil isn't threatened. Democracy isn't threatened.
Peaceful relations with Iran only threatens those who profit from instability.
Ahmadinejad shares a view of US foreign policy with Chomsky... So?
Posted by ginza00 at 07/09/2008 @ 5:46pm
The perception, and likely reality, is Iran won't budge on wanting nukes. Care to share w/us why Obama's negotiations will be any more successful? It's why I say, let it have nukes...how's that "spinning"? To continue to do the same, even with different negotiators and a POTUS, will change the result? Convince me as to how! Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 5:21pm
Iran has said they don't want nukes and stopped it's nuclear research. Whether this is truthful or not I don't care because on top of that our own NIE says they stopped in 2003 so the facts so far back up what they say. Now we can work off of pedestrian assumptions but there is obviously some proof that we don't know about saying that they don't have them and are not seeking them because otherwise Bush would still be up their ass.
On top of that I agree with you. Slightly different reasoning but still. I don't think a country WITH nukes has the standing to tell one without them that they can't have them. Especially if they are taking the stance that they are seeking the abilities in order to make nuclear power plants. It's a bit ridiculous to tell them they aren't allowed research it and then tell them their only option is to buy plants from us. That's just my feeling on it though. Let em have nukes. What are they going to all get together and throw them at us? Israel already has nukes so it's not like we need to worry about that.
"I don't need to spin....you do, you're black...Obama is going to set back perceptions of `blacks'.....reinforcing the old stereotypes."
Also, how is he going to do this and which stereotypes? You mean the thief stereotype? Criminals? Can only play basketball? Can dance well? Which stereotypes are you talking about? I don't really feel the need to spin anything personally. I am voting for him because he is still a better option than McCain in my eyes. I have expected him to do what he is doing now from the beginning. I called it a long time ago so none of this in any way surprises me or vexes me. It's called politics. Everyone on here is trying to make more out of it than it is.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/09/2008 @ 6:28pm
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 6:15pm
Why is it a copt out to say negotiate with them? Negotiate with the threat of force on the table. Make certain that they know that if they attack ANYONE that we will not let it stand and make certain they know that they nuke a neighboring country whether it be Israel or anyone else, that they will get a response of equal or greater power. Put that on the table from the beginning and then talk. Talking is not capitulation, it's not appeasement, it is only an attempt to prevent the loss of life.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/09/2008 @ 6:33pm
Wow happy... What could you possibly be happy about sitting in a Y2K shelter listening to Rush..???
Why would you consistently want to prove yourself an ignorant BIGOTed neo-con..??? You are a sad little man. Really.
Look at a map... See how close That lil' speck of land called Palestine is to Israel... Oh wait, IT IS IN ISRAEL..?!?!?
So nukes would kill palestinians too..??? yes... yes they would morons. (how would that play in the mideast..?)
You wanna be neo-cons are really SO fucking far from reality... Clueless and Ignorant... The last 7 years of this administration have proven this....
Posted by Vvf1969 at 07/09/2008 @ 8:12pm
but the neutron bomb is so clean.....
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 8:33pm
Third, are you aware that Islam considers heaven to be a nice, COMFy place and doesn't cherish life on earth quite the same way we do?
Posted by 2HAPPY
please, tell us about the many wonders of the mahomedan world, oh mysitc one.
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 8:38pm
<i>You know, I was freaked out by Ahmadinejad claiming the holocaust never occured. But I discovered that's not what he said at all. He simply had the audacity to comment that actual census numbers in Europe during the 30's put the Jewish population more in the 2 to 3 million range. He questioned where the 6 million figure came from. Posted by ginza00 at 07/09/2008 @ 3:30pm </i>
Nope, actually he did:
<<They have invented a myth that Jews were massacred and place this above God, religions and the prophets," Ahmadinejad said in a speech to thousands of people in the Iranian city of Zahedan, according to a report on Wednesday from Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.
"The West has given more significance to the myth of the genocide of the Jews, even more significant than God, religion, and the prophets," he said. "(It) deals very severely with those who deny this myth but does not do anything to those who deny God, religion, and the prophet."
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/12/14/iran.israel/>>
Mistranslation? Don't think so. Is full denial of the Holocaust simply a neat academic matter, particularly for a world leader? Don't think so.
Posted by Thrawn at 07/09/2008 @ 8:41pm
ahmadinejad is not a world leader.
more like rush limbaugh in farsi......
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 9:03pm
There is no question lil' guy... Just an observation of your bigoted, small minded, fear based world.
How does it feel to live in fear ? To believe what some neo-cons in DC tell you to believe..?? Did you swallow, hook line and sinker on the WMD bullshit too..?? Tell us how there is ANY fucking credibility with this administrations "Intelligence"....
Get your lil' AM radio off Rush for once and think for yourself..
Posted by Vvf1969 at 07/09/2008 @ 9:26pm
Dollar falls on Iran missile test, economic worries 4 hours ago
NEW YORK (AFP) -- The dollar fell against the other main currencies Wednesday amid new geopolitical tension after Iran tested a missile it claimed was capable of hitting Israel.
The euro climbed to 1.5754 dollars at 2100 GMT from 1.5664 dollars late on Tuesday. Against the yen, the dollar fell to 106.72 yen from 107.50.
Market action came after the G8 powers wrapped up summit talks in Japan on the global economy with fresh warnings about the threat from soaring commodity costs but no quick fixes for jittery markets.
"The end of the G8 meeting in Japan today (Wednesday), without anything further on the dollar, has coincided with a missile test from Iran, which has prompted some renewed dollar selling against most other currencies," said Derek Halpenny, economist at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London.
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 9:36pm
<i>Third, are you aware that Islam considers heaven to be a nice, COMFy place and doesn't cherish life on earth quite the same way we do?
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 8:31pm </i>
As much as I can sort of see Frosty's response, I have an even more fundamental problem here. I'm pretty sure that Christianity also considers heaven to be a pretty swell place; I assume that's what the word "perfect" is intended to connote. Though I'm pretty sure that Christians also cherish life on Earth, what reason do you have to believe that Muslims don't?
Posted by Thrawn at 07/09/2008 @ 9:40pm
He knows... Thats all you have to know... Rush told him...
Posted by Vvf1969 at 07/09/2008 @ 9:46pm
2HAPPY
so why is it that christians kill so many more people?
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 11:23pm
COPYRIGHT 2004 Daily News
Byline: Richard Sisk
Apr. 23--WASHINGTON -- The U.S. would have to fold tents in Iraq and bring the troops home if the new Iraqi government tells it to go after June 30, Sen. John McCain said yesterday.
"It's obvious we would have to leave," said McCain (R-Ariz.),
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/09/2008 @ 11:31pm
ok...two things...
first - despite the fact that the iranian regime is indeed a detestable farce of a democracy medievalist shiite islamofascist theocracy...
i can't blame them for wanting a few nukes. it IS the only sure way to avoid being "liberated" or at least bullied, humiliated and covertly effed with by us in this world. they are as hepped up on stupid nationalistic pride as are we and perhaps once the get a few nukes maybe they will settle down. for 60 years now we've been brandishing our big nuclear stick and hiding behind it so i have a hard time gulping down our attestations of moral superiority in this area. oh well.
second - there's just no way we can fight another war now unless its absolutely unavoidable. the warmonger corporate fascists here have blown their and their country's wad in terms of unneeded war.
yay!!!!
Posted by ibbleblibble at 07/10/2008 @ 12:05am
I have held off registering on this site for a while but I had to sign up because I am tired of reading petty posts regarding democrats/liberals and republicans/conservatives.
Do you not realize that, in America, both factions forge forward with the same policy, + or - some relatively trivial issues? Do you not consider the effect that the decisions made in DC have on the rest of the world?
Step outside of your bubble, stop bickering over issues that you essentially agree on (I can't remember the last time I read a post questioning America's right to invade another country in the first place), and start considering the damage your country is inflicting across the globe.
Worry less about how you are perceived. Worry less about slandering the 'other' political party. Worry more about how problems facing humanity can be solved. Worry more about human life.
Gain perspective. Many (if not most) people in the world can not afford to eat today. We can sit at our computers and question each other after a decent meal.
Human lives are not to be treated as pawns in a game for politicians!
History has given us an opportunity to be where we are now, and we now have an opportunity to create a fair world - a fair living standard - for all.
Posted by jmacleod45 at 07/10/2008 @ 12:10am
In recent history in daling with internal matters, were Mao, Saddam or Stalin christian? The Janjaweeds in Darfur? Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 11:57pm
Eh. Many Christians even now-a-days kill people to go to heaven. You have your wack jobs in Christianity just like every other religion does. People kill in the name of God you know?
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/10/2008 @ 02:20am
First: The West would never nuke Iran. Too much valuable real estate would go down the tubes. The oil would survive underground, but getting it would become too expensive.
Second: The present Government of Iran is extremist and the people have suffered because of it. But, their Islamist Government is a direct result of the UK's and US's efforts to replace the freely elected Dr. Mossadegh with tyrant Shah Reza Palavi.
It was a long time ago, but there is a direct link.
Mossadegh nationalized the oil resources and the West chose to prop up a tyrant rather than deal with the independent will of the people.
It's a familiar scenario...Chile, Nicaragua, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Panama...Etc
Posted by koroviev at 07/10/2008 @ 05:51am
Worry less about slandering the 'other' political party.
Posted by jmacleod45 at 07/10/2008 @ 12:10am | ignore this person | warn this person
thats never been a problem for me. apparantly you missed an old post where i referred to karl rove as a blobulant fascist and fantasized about an "accidental" explosive decapitation at his hanging for treason...
its funny...this site attracts a lot of fascists who like to argue.
nothing like a little "gallows humor", eh?
Posted by ibbleblibble at 07/10/2008 @ 08:03am
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/09/2008 @ 11:57pm | ignore this person | warn this person
there does indeed exist an especially virulent form of islam these days, exported from saudi arabia. the religion does lend itself to such monstrosities as OBL and there IS indeed a sizable number of muslims fantasizing about the conquest, conversion, and destruction of the non islamic civilized world.
unfortunately many of my fellow lefty liberals let their otherwise laudable goody goody tolerance blind them to the menace of radical, intolerant, violant islam that does indeed merit the term "islamofascism" and is holds the potential to create theocratic totalitarianism that rivals or surpasses any secular form of totalitarianism, left or right, seen.
here is a great insight into the growing monster. the ironic thing is how antithetical such strains of islam are to everything progressives hold "sacred".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peFQWuk4nuo
Posted by ibbleblibble at 07/10/2008 @ 08:25am
Dreyfuss --
I regret to have to contradict you. I think some kind of attack will follow this slapping match, propelled off the Existential Springboard of Ingrid Betancourt's "release from captivity".
My argument is from the mythic texture of our communication atmosphere, saturated with:
sacrificial sons (Russert's untimely death; McCain's cadavar like P.O.W. campaign ad -- time and space don't exist in the unconscious)
...there is a matching of opposites (mysterium conjunctionis): sacrificial daughters -- one now saved by the strength of her will to survive, nurtured by the spirit of family and higher cause. Devoted to her Mother, as John McCain to his Father..
The karma of both, touched by high idealism, becomes first a destiny of death; then, by the grace of higher powers (and help of 100 persons dedicated to the cause in the U.S. Embassy since February, with 39 helicopters and 2,000 troops ready if plan B was called for) they emerge from captivity (Think: The Children of Israel led out of Israel by Moses; The Iranian hostages released by Reagan; Gilad Shalid hopefully released by Hamas; and, of course, what was left of Jewish interests after the holocaust.)
This is as good as it gets July 4th, when we are hearing of it. Independence Day. Following Memorial Day, Father's Day, Flag Day, and back to Friday 13, Russert's day. A regular surge of mind-numbing, soul drumming patriotic thoughts. And this one fit right in. Never mind she was a radical leftist female, unwanted, where she had no business being, getting the one who befriended her killed (probably: 'she saw him naked and dead on the floor', reported of 'Cesar').
Nevermind John McCain's own story is darker, with non-gratitude shown toward the Vietnamese man who rescued him; collaboration with the enemty in violation of the military code of conduct when captured; on a killing mission against people he did not know, had not attacked his country, in a far off land he had no business in. Then parlaying ignorance and assumption of the opposite case, that he was a war hero, into Presidential Soul capital. Well, it's just the reverse.
And because it is the reverse, and Betancourt's 'miracle' was the reverse -- sacralized deception -- the flow of these two reversals produce a double-dishonor situation. But since the dark side of both is repressed, not brought up out of consideration of her dignity and his honor, it festers with the energy of Reaction Formation (Freud - "No! NO! IT's JUST THE OTHER WAY -- MOMMY AND DADDY ..VICTIMS!". The trauma of birth, psycho-neurological aroused like PTSD among the inferior and regressed, must be compulsively repeated and re-enacted even while being denied (cf. Dreyfuss here.) Slouching toward Tehran, MAY THE FARCE BE WITH THEM...!
War symbolically re-enacts the struggle (of fetal siblings) to get free from the Poisonous Placenta (Al Queda, the Jungles -- Vietnam, Colombia, Nazi extermination camps, abortion clinics, Ahmadinejad) -- a delusional blood disease ("NO! NO! IT's NOT BLOOD")
...sacrificing soldier-siblings to act out collective birth trauma purifying themselves from sin, trying to please G-d and escape punishment (this one's not just in their head).
(Note: we'll get to see whether his inside dope or my mythic scope is the metaphysical trump.)
Posted by jones at 07/10/2008 @ 10:11am
Is full denial of the Holocaust simply a neat academic matter, particularly for a world leader? Don't think so. Posted by Thrawn
are you suggesting this is a casus belli? what does it matter who denies the holocaust? there are countries where this is against the law, an' dat's it.
are you now suggesting that the US police the utterances of everyone? you have flipped your lid.
we have a world leader who denies global warming in this white house. this is of far greater significance for our future.
Posted by emile duBois at 07/10/2008 @ 10:33am
who the hell cares about this heaven bullshit? get a grip, people
Posted by emile duBois at 07/10/2008 @ 10:37am
holocaust? well, I'll concede a few jews were inconvenienced, but....
Posted by emile duBois at 07/10/2008 @ 10:42am
Wow I don't know how many people looked at the article about Iran's photoshopped missile. Anyone who want's a laugh look up the photo. If you know anything about photographic forgery or photoshop in general you will see it right away.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/10/2008 @ 11:32am
I agree there will not be a war started by us. But you are dead wrong about Iran negotiating in good faith over nuclear weapons development. Their only goal is to aquire the bomb and have the ability to deliver it. Thank God President Bush had the fortitude to continue with anti-missile defense. The ball will always be in Iran's court. When, not it, they launch a nuke at Israel and it is shot down, Iran will cease to exist. They will only get one shot.
Posted by pyeatte at 07/10/2008 @ 8:05pm