"We hope we're about to elect FDR," New York Times op-ed columnist Paul Krugman told me earlier this week, "but we might be about to elect Grover Cleveland." He said he was referring to the front-runner, Hillary Clinton.
Grover Cleveland, for those who don't know their 19th century presidents, was the only Democrat who made it to the White House between 1860 and 1912, the decades when Republican big money ruled the country. Cleveland, elected in 1885 and again in 1893, mobilized the army to crush the 1894 Pullman strike of railroad workers, and joined Wall Street in supporting the gold standard. "He was what they called a ‘Bourbon Democrat,' as in the French royal family," Krugman explained. "He wasn't that different from the Republicans at the time."
Krugman said it appears that the key issue in the 2008 election will be health care, and that the Democrats have a health care plan that will work. His "biggest concern," he said, was "whether the next occupant of the White House will triangulate it into oblivion." He reiterated that he was talking about Hillary.
Earlier that day, the New York Times had reported on page one that the health care industry has already contributed $2.7 million to Hillary, more than any other candidate in either party. Krugman indicated he was concerned that she might do too much compromising and negotiating with the insurance, pharmaceutical and hospital companies, as she did as First Lady in 1993.
Krugman pointed to one big difference between the Clintons' triangulation over health care in 1993 and the situation today, when "we have a self-conscious, aggressive progressive movement in a way we did not when Bill Clinton came into office. I think that does at least somewhat change the calculus," he said. If Hillary does concede too much to the other side, "there is an organized group that will make it clear that this is not what you're supposed to do."
On health care, Krugman said that, speaking as an economist -- which he is --the best plan would be a single payer system, like the "Medicare for All" bill introduced by John Conyers. That would have the lowest administrative overhead and thus provide the most cost-effective system. In his book, "The Conscience of a Liberal," he writes "America loves Medicare; let's give it to everyone." But politically that would be a struggle, because it would require a substantial tax increase.
Thus "the perfect can be the enemy of the good," Krugman says. The most politically feasible plan is the one proposed first by John Edwards and then by Barak Obama – a universal health care system run though private insurance companies. It mandates coverage for everybody and prohibits insurers from denying coverage to anyone or charging different premiums to different people, and it provides government subsidies for low-income people.
The main advantage is that it could be paid for without a tax increase, simply by reversing the Bush tax cuts for the rich. That's the one the Democrats will be pushing after the 2008 election, Krugman says, and that's the one Hillary must be prevented from triangulating into oblivion.
Krugman spoke with me at a public event, ALOUD at Central Library, a free series at the Los Angeles Public Library presented by the Library Foundation of Los Angeles.
Thirteen million toys have been recalled in the last two months due to unsafe levels of lead. The Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) -- the watchdog agency charged with protecting consumers from such risks -- has exactly one full-time toy inspector. That's right, one. It has 15 inspectors who oversee all of the imports under the agency's jurisdiction -- a $614 billion market.
So when the Senate took up legislation to double the agency's budget, beef up its staff by 20 percent, impose stiffer penalties for company and executive violations, and "give the commission broad new powers to police the marketplace," it of course would have no greater advocate than acting chair, Nancy Nord, right?
Who are you kidding -- not in this White House.
According to the New York Times, the former lawyer for Eastman Kodak sent not one, but two, letters opposing the bill . Whistle-blower protection (which not even industry opposes), increased transparency for reports on faulty products, and raising the cap on penalties from $1.8 million to $100 million are just some of the measures Nord finds most objectionable.
"It was remarkable to send a letter like that to a committee, when you're in dire straits and you need increased funding and you've acknowledged that," Ellen Bloom, director of federal policy at Consumers Union, told the Times.
The Bush administration's ideological contempt for any government role in protecting the public interest is limitless. So, even though Americans are already more vulnerable, for example, than other developed countries when it comes to the safety of our children's toys, you can count on the Bushies to continue to gut the government so that their cronies in Big Business continue to have their run of the place.
Thanks to Nation writer and Occidental College professor Peter Dreier for tipping me off to the following item with which California Nation readers are likely already familiar.
It's Halloween season and the Republicans have launched another "dirty tricks" effort to try (again) to steal the White House. Under the guise of good government, the GOP is trying to change California election rules so the state's electoral college votes can be split according to Congressional district. The end result would be to deprive the Democratic nominee for president about twenty of California's Electoral College votes next fall.
According to the San Jose Mercury News, Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani's gang of out-of-state consultants are behind this Rovian dirty trick, having "already raised $2 million" to hoodwink Californians into subverting the Constitution by ballot initiative. Consultants Ed Rollins and Anne Dunsmore are leading this ugly mob. Both have strong connections to Giuliani and, more ominously, former Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris.
Then check out the Courage Campaign website to find out what you can do to help combat this blatantly pro-Republican "reform."
With President Bush's original goal of establishing "a beacon of liberty in the Middle East" no longer operative, what, exactly, is the administration's goal for Iraq?
An independent government report released yesterday said there isn't one. The U.S. doesn't have a "National strategy for victory in Iraq" and, more specifically, a plan to rebuild the country's government and oil-based economy.
The Government Accountability Office report assailed "the lack of strategies with purpose, scope, role and responsibilities and performance measures" in securing and stabilizing Iraq. And the U.S. is not following through on the three broadly agreed upon strategies it previously outlined:
1. A unified U.S. Government: The State Department and Department of Defense continue to wage fierce bureaucratic battles for rebuilding, leading to a lack of coordination of what the GAO's Joseph Christoff calls the "basic, operational level."
2. An engaged Iraqi Government: Of the $10 billion the Iraqi government dedicated toward reconstruction in 2007, only 24 percent has been spent. And next year the Iraqis plan to spend only $4 billion toward a more stable government and economy.
3. International Support: With the U.S. already having spent more than $40 billion on reconstruction projects, a grand total of $15.6 billion in non-U.S. money has been pledged to rebuild Iraq, $11 billion of which is loans. The GAO could not say how much, if any, of this money has actually been granted.
So a divided U.S. government going at the rebuilding alone has predictably led to waste, fraud and abuse. The GAO's Christoff says there is "bad bookkeeping" which has most dramatically led to "190,000 missing weapons" and a "Ministry of the Interior with a different militia for each of their floors."
The Iraq news is not all bad. An Iraqi Inspector General's report also released yesterday showed that American casualties are at their lowest since February 2006. And Iraq's electricity output has reached its highest daily level, in megawatts, since the 2003 invasion. In fact, the trends described circa the Petraeus report to Congress have clearly continued: the surge has made Iraq relatively more secure but there is no indication of the political calm it was supposed to bring.
Congress has yet to approve Bush's request of $196 billion on war funding. And the President has- surprise, surprise- equated their reticence with a failure to support the troops. But if the government reports are correct, even if the troops are being "supported" they have not been given a plan to succeed.
Federal Communications Commission chair Kevin Martin is doing everything he can to prevent public input that would challenge his rush to have the commission radically rewrite media ownership rules before Christmas. His latest tactic was to schedule a last-minute Halloween hearing on the proposed rule change -- which would allow one media conglomerate to own the daily newspapers, weekly newspapers, television and radio stations and primary internet news sites in a community.
But Martin's trick earned no treats for the media monopolists he seeks to serve, as the sneaky chairman was called on the carpet by his fellow commissioners, members of Congress and one of the nation's largest and most vigilent religious groupings.
Dissident commissioners Michael Copps and Jonathan Adelstein appeared at a rally outside the FCC's office in Washington to object to Martin's chicanery. "Neither we nor the public received any confirmation that the hearing would occur until ... just 5 business days before the event," the commissioners said before entering the building for the hearing. "This is unacceptable and unfair to the public."
Joining Copps and Adelstein were political, labor and community leaders who condemned Martin's assault not merely on media diversity but on the basic standards for making regulatory shifts.
"We cannot and we will not let the FCC shove new media ownership rules down our throats. It is our constitutional obligation to stand up and demand that we see greater media ownership diversity, not less," said Congressman Maurice Hinchey, the New York Democrat who chairs the Future of Media Caucus in the U.S. House. "Chairman Martin's efforts to curtail debate and quickly advance a media consolidation proposal raise numerous warning signs that he wants to further shrink an already limited diversity of opinion found among American news outlets. His expected plan is the exact opposite of what is needed in this country."
The Rev. Jesse Jackson said in his role as president of the Rainbow PUSH Coalition,"We have a media diversity crisis -- too few, own too much, at the expense of too many. Stopping media consolidation is the most important way to help minority ownership. But the FCC is trying to fast-track media consolidation instead of creating policies that expand ownership opportunities. The FCC should be serving people, not profit."
Echoing Jackson's point was National Organization for Women President Kim Gandy, who said, "Despite the fact that together we represent two-thirds of the country, women and people of color are woefully under-represented in media ownership. Massive consolidation and market concentration is one of the key factors keeping this vital population from access to the public airwaves."
Some of the toughest criticism of Martin's moves came from the religious community, which objected to the fact that the chairman had made it virtually impossible for citizens who rely on the media for the information they need to participate in American democracy -- and who, for that reason, own the airwaves -- to participate in a vital decisionmaking process.
"The members of the UCC and other faith communities should not have to call their lives to a halt on a moment's notice to participate in civic discourse," said Cheryl Leanza, managing director of UCC's Office of Communication, which since the civil rights struggles of the 1950s and 1960s has been one of the most dogged defenders of public input in the development of media ownership rules.
Added the Rev. J. Bennett Guess, who serves as acting managing director of the UCC's media-justice agency: "Church members communicate with each other on Sundays, so the limited notice meant we could not inform our members easily. People with work commitments, family responsibilities, and community obligations are not on the same time table as corporations and trade associations whose only concern is media regulation, and thus can rearrange their schedules at will."
Guess got to the heart of the matter. Kevin Martin is organizing hearings with an eye toward serving media owners -- and delivering on their demands -- rather than with an interest in meeting the need of the citizens the FCC is supposed to serve.
Today the Senate Judiciary Committee convened a hearing on President Bush's spying bill, which could validate warrantless domestic surveillance, immunize potential crimes by telecommunications companies and preempt related state investigations. The legislation was already approved by the Intelligence Committee, and Harry Reid said he wants a full floor vote "before the end of this year." But the FISA Amendments Act also faces filibuster threats from several Senators, including presidential candidates Dodd, Biden, Obama and Clinton, who oppose letting companies off the hook for their allegedly illegal surveillance of American citizens. Immunity is also a huge issue for Democratic and civil liberties activists – today the ACLU delivered petitions signed by 250,000 voters organized by MoveOn.org, People for the American Way and several liberal blogs.
The big news in today's hearing was Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy came out against immunity for the first time. (As recently as yesterday, his spokeswoman told The Nation he had not yet reached a position.) "A retroactive grant of immunity or preemption of state regulators does more than let the carriers off the hook. Immunity is designed to shield this Administration from any accountability for conducting surveillance outside the law," said Leahy. Many legal experts agree that retroactive immunity would fortify the administration's strategy to shirk accountability and maintain secrecy around domestic spying. Yet other Senate Democrats who have criticized Bush's spying still support immunity, including the majority of Democrats on the Intelligence Committee.
Intelligence Chairman Rockefeller has been waging the legislative battle on behalf of Bush. He not only pushed immunity through his committee, but last week he came very close to officially endorsing the administration's radical legal claim that the 2001 authorization of force (AUMF) against Afghanistan also authorized domestic spying – even though the legislation does not contain any reference to surveillance or spying. (Under this theory, administration officials have even cited the AUMF as a basis to invade Iraq and Syria without any congressional approval. Get ready to hear the same theory for attacking Iran.) Rockefeller's legislative report, which can guide judicial interpretation if the bill becomes law, appears to raise the AUMF as a possible basis for Bush's domestic spying. This drew a sharp rebuttal from several members of his committee, including Republican Senators Hagel and Snowe, who used the report's minority section to break down the issue:
We do not believe that the AUMF provided this authorization. We have seen no evidence that Congress intended the AUMF to authorize a widespread effort to collect the content of Americans' phone and email communications, nor does the AUMF refer to the subject. Furthermore, FISA already contained a provision that clearly governed surveillance actions in a wartime situation – a 15-day authorization for warrantless surveillance following a declaration of war. So this was not an uncontemplated question following September 11 and the passage of the AUMF.
Senator Feinstein also endorsed this point, while Senators Feingold and Durbin are expected to continue the fight in the Judiciary Committee. House Democrats have fought harder for accountability, with a bill rejecting immunity, but Republicans have managed to obstruct a floor vote thus far. Jerrold Nadler, Chair of the House Subcommittee on the Constitution, says retroactive immunity is a totally inappropriate response to the "lawless" Bush administration.
The Senate Judiciary Committee could mark up the FISA Amendments Act as early as next Thursday, preparing it for a floor vote. Then the current bill would still face a "hold" or filibuster from several Senators, portending a clash between the Bush-Reid-Rockefeller alliance and the progressive-civil liberties wing of the Democratic Party.
It was supposed to be the night Barack Obama took Hillary Clinton down.
But, when all was said and done, Obama was a bystander.
The opening question in Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate was a softball pitch from NBC's Brian Williams to the senator from Illinois. Noting Obama's interview in the Sunday New York Times, in which the senator from Illinois promised to get tough with Clinton for acting like a Republican, Williams asked him detail the votes and statements from Clinton to which he objected.
Obama should have been ready to knock that one out of the park. Instead, he swung and missed.
"Some of this stuff gets over-hyped," said Obama, who then tried to tell a boxing joke before rambling on about his support for "big meaningful change."
Finally, the Illinoisan suggested that Clinton had flip-flopped on trade, torture and Iraq -- moving in each case from bad positions to better ones -- while admitting that her evolutions might have been "politically savvy."
Asked for a rebuttal, the frontrunner seized the opening, noted the many attacks on her by GOP presidential candidates and then delivered a classic debate one-liner: "I don't think the Republicans got the message that I'm voting and sounding like them."
Were it left to Obama, Clinton would not only have escaped the night unscathed, she might actually have come out ahead.
But this is a multi-candidate race. Where Obama was unfocused and ineffectual, John Edwards landed plenty of blows. The former senator from North Carolina began by suggesting that "it's fair" to talk about essential differences between the candidates. Then he highlighted a big one. "(Clinton) says she'll stand up to George Bush," argued Edwards. "In fact, she voted to give George W. Bush the first step to war on Iran..."
Ouch! That reference to Clinton's vote in favor of the Kyl-Lieberman resolution declaring Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, which read an awfully lot like a signal to Bush that he has congressional support for an attack on attack Iraq, opened up a highly engaged discussion that saw several of the candidates, led by Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd -- saying in reference to Clinton's vote of five years ago to authorize Bush to attack Iraq: "What you didn't learn by 2002, you should have learned by now" -- aggressively question Clinton's judgement. It was a smart, at times intense dialogue. Kucinich even got in a call for impeaching Bush and Cheney in order to restore the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches on questions of war-making.
But Edwards owned the moment. Accusing Clinton of voting for an Iran resolution that read like it was "written literally by the neo-cons," the 2004 vice presidential nominee declared, "We need to stand up to this president. We need to make it absolutely clear that we will not let Bush, Cheney and this administration invade Iran."
Edwards was identifying himself "as the clear, sharp alternative," observed NBC commentator Domenico Montanaro. "This is wedging going on. (Edwards) might be elbowing Obama out of the way on this issue. (Obama's), albeit reasonable, but tepid answer on this, just wasn't grabbing the spotlight."
"In the competition to see who would be the sharpest Clinton attacker, Edwards won by far," said Newsweek's Howard Fineman, referring to the North Carolinian's reference to Clinton and the neo-cons.
It wasn't just a fight about Iran, however. Edwards hit hard, and effectively, on every front. After detailing the front-runner's contributions from defense contractors and other corporate interests, he said. "If people want the status quo, Senator Clinton's your candidate."
That's tough talk. Blunt talk. The sort of talk that Barack Obama seemed to suggest that he was going to deliver Tuesday night.
But it came from John Edwards, who ended the night as the candidate who had done the best job of defining himself as the alternative to Hillary Clinton.
Those of us at The Nation have been banging on for some months about the issue of postage rates. In particular, we've been expressing deep concern about the radical restructuring of those rates in a manner that favors magazines with large circulations and transfers costs to small- and mid-circulation publications.
On the rack of journals of opinion, The Nation is indeed a large publication. Along with its ideological opposite, the conservative National Review, The Nation's circulation makes it one of the major jousters in the current clash of ideas. But against consumer magazines that are less engaged with the political and policy fights of the day than with the pursuit of mass circulation and the advertising dollars that follow it, The Nation definitely falls into that "mid-circulation" range of publications that is taking a huge hit as big media companies flex their muscles in the regulatory sphere.
This fight is about more than one magazine, and more than one ideology. Representatives of journals of opinion from across the ideological spectrum are united in their loud objection to the stacking of the distribution deck against publications that explore the issues from libertarian, old-right, new-right, centrist, liberal and progressive perspectives.
The message delivered at today hearing of the US House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform's subcommittee that deals with the postage service was a fundamental one: The sort of publications that the founders imagined as the essential documenters and arbiters of our democratic discourse are being threatened by federal policy making that favors size over content, that favors bigness over quality.
Scott McConnell of The American Conservative magazine explained in testimony submitted to the Federal Workforce, Postal Service and District of Columbia Subcommittee of the House Committee "the postage increases we are facing under the new provisions are little less than catastrophic.
Christopher L. Walton, editor of UU World, the terrific quarterly magazine of the Unitarian Universalist Association of Congregations explained that, "It is disturbing to learn that the new rates abandon the long-standing American tradition of supporting a diverse marketplace of ideas with a fair and uniform postage rate for periodicals. Historically, the periodicals rate allowed small journals of opinion to reach a national audience. But the new rates reward high-circulation periodicals with discounts that smaller-circulation periodicals simply cannot qualify for. Instead, we face a steep and unfair increase in mailing costs.
In These Times editor Joel Bleifuss, with his usual laser focus on the core issues involved, informed the committee that, "In August 2007, In These Times, an independent magazine based in Chicago, was hit hard by a 23 percent postal rate increase. This complex new rate structure, designed by and for the benefit of the largest publishing companies, has severely impacted our small magazine's ability to do business. We face an immediate threat to our financial health. These reckless postal rate increases are aimed at the heart of our nation's independent press. I urge you to ask the spokespeople of the media conglomerates whether they would support these increases if their mailing costs had risen 23 percent. This is a democracy issue. The founding fathers, in their infinite wisdom, created a system that made it cheaper for smaller publications, irrespective of viewpoint, to launch and survive. In 1792 the United States Congress converted the free press clause in the First Amendment from an abstract principle into a living reality for Americans by providing newspapers with low postal rates. These low rates were crucial for the growth and spread of the abolitionist movement, the progressive movement and, later, the civil rights movement. More broadly, they have been central to the development of participatory democracy in general. Today, low postal rates remain crucial to the survival of independent American publications like In These Times."
Not all testimony was submitted in written form. Some of it was delivered personally. Among those appearing before the committee was Nation Publisher Emeritus Victor Navasky, who now serves as director of the Delacorte Center for Magazines and Delacorte Professor of Magazine Journalism at Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism and director of the Columbia Journalism Review.
Navasky told the committee that he hoped to speak "not only on behalf of CJR and The Nation, and on behalf of small-circulation political journals, but also on behalf of the highly influential readers of these periodicals -– journals in general, editorial writers, legislators and their staffs, non-profit executives, corporate public affairs officers, the academic community, students and teachers, among others. In other words, all of those engaged in, and informed by, the public discourse these magazines exemplify."
Navasky explained to the committee in prepared remarks that, "I have never understood why of all the services government provides--defense, education, environmental protection, health, housing, highways and the rest--only the mails are required to break even or make a profit. The founders, who saw the mails as the circulatory system of our democracy, made no such presumption. George Washington himself was in favor of the free delivery of newspapers (which, by the way, in those days were often weekly and usually partisan, and as such the equivalent of today's journals of political opinion). These journals, whose core franchise is public discourse about public affairs, are, like water, national defense, public highways and public education, a public good and as such it would seem to me ought to be paid for out of public funds (i.e. general tax revenues)."
The author of A Matter of Opinion admitted "this view is generally regarded as quaint and unrealistic–-utopian, as it were--and so the rest of what I have to say does not depend on it, but I thought in the interests of full disclosure, and the hope that it might set some of you to thinking, that I ought to share it."
With that, Navasky outlined a number of practical steps the committee, Congress and the United States Postal Service could make to right the imbalance created by a wrongheaded rate restructuring. Among other things, he proposed reviving a very good proposal by former Arizona Congressman Mo Udall- a liberal Democrat who was supported in the initiative by conservative Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater --to allow the first 250,000 copies of all publications to be mailed at reduced rates. Or, Navasky suggested, why not embrace legislation proposed in 2002 by Bernie Sanders, then the congressman from Vermont and now the senator, that proposed a moratorium on postal increases for magazines with a low percentage of advertising content, low circulation or non-profit status?
Ultimately, however, Navasky proposed a practical and necessary fix for an immediate crisis: Noting that the postal service has the flexibility, working in tandem with Congress, to roll back and/or redistribute rates in the short term, he proposed that Congress ask the USPS to extend non-profit rates to small-circulation political magazines.
That's not a final fix. But is an appropriate move in a moment of crisis by a postal rate increase that will, if it is not addressed, hinder the free flow of ideas and opinions in America.
"It is no accident that the president of The Nation and the publisher of National Review, two periodicals on the opposite sides of the political spectrum, recently teamed up to write an Op Ed essay sounding the alarm," concluded Navasky. "Such small political journals –- which, by the way, carry the most discourse –- bear the heaviest rate increases. The unpopular ideas and opinions that these journals propagate and circulate today often turn out to be tomorrow's wisdom. They act as intellectual and political gadflies, they prod their larger and staider colleagues, they question conformity and complacency. By helping them recover from the grievous wound inflicted upon by the recent rate increase, this Committee will have deepened and strengthened our democracy."
If you want to know how stupid Bush's decision to push ahead with building a missile defense system in Eastern Europe really is, check out what Vladimir Putin said last week--comparing the US proposed missile shield to the Cuban missile crisis of the 1960s. Barely reported in the US media, the Russian President told reporters at a press conference at the end of a Russian-European Union Summit in Portugal that "Analogous actions by the Soviet Union, when it deployed missiles in Cuba, prompted the 'Caribbean crisis."
Though he doesn't mention Putin's remarks, Joseph Cirincione--an expert on National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress--provides cogent evidence against the Administration's allegation that an American radar in the Czech republic would not threaten Russia's nuclear posture, and he presents some excellent policy proposals that and sane Presidential candidate should consider seriously.
The longest article about the many eminent scientists who believe that Russia's fear of missile defense in the Czech Republic and Poland is well-founded is an AP story by Desmond Butler. I read Butler's article in The Moscow News, #39, October 5/11, 2007--an English-language paper published in Moscow. Whether or not it was published widely in the US I do not know, though it's sort of alarming that I had to read this important story in a newspaper published in Russia.
A funny thing happened when the Deaniacs were asked to decide who they might want to back for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.
The supporters of the 2004 presidential campaign of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and their allies, who form the base of the Democracy for America organization nationally, have been participating in recent days in a poll to see whether a liberal "consensus candidate" can be identified.
It's an online vote, certainly not a scientific survey.
But the voting so far has been revealing. The announced candidates for the Democratic nod are all pictured on the DFA website -- www.democracyforamerica.com -- and several of them have taken advantage of the opportunity offered them by the group to dispatch emails explaining their candidacies to DFA lists.
So who is winning as the contest heads toward its November 5 conclusion -- a date that conveniently falls two months before Iowa Democrats will be attending what could well be definitional caucuses?
It's not Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama; not even John Edwards, who has made a serious play for DFA support. It is not even Dennis Kucinich, the anti-war progressive who is arguably the candidate most in tune with DFA positions in global and domestic issues.
The front-runner is a write-in candidate: former Vice President Al Gore.
Here's how the numbers looked as of Monday afternoon:
Al Gore (write in) 26499... 26.68%
Dennis Kucinich 23951... 24.11%
Barack Obama 18253... 18.38%
John Edwards 15065... 15.17%
Bill Richardson 5726... 5.76%
Hillary Clinton 4421... 4.45%
Other 2056... 2.07%
Christopher Dodd 1551... 1.56%
Joe Biden 997... 1%
Mike Gravel 814... 0.82%
Gore has maintained a lead for more than a week.
It is not likely that the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner will be lured into the race by an online poll. But his unexpected showing tells us two things:
1. Gore has genuine support among progressives. DFA poll participants had to go to extra trouble to write his name in and got no prompting from the group on the possibility of going for the former vice president and 2004 Dean backer. This suggests that, for so long as Gore teases about a race, former "Draft Gore" activists and their grassroots allies -- who have stepped up their activism in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early caucus and primary states -- will find support for their entreaties.
2. The Gore possibility is a serious problem for announced candidates who seek to position themselves as alternatives to presumed Democratic front-runner Clinton. DFA rules require that a candidate get more than 66 percent of the vote to earn an endorsement from the group, which maintains a reasonably solid infrastructure nationally and which serves as a useful bully pulpit among liberal Democrats. It is unlikely that Kucinich, Obama or Edwards could get to the 66 percent level even without the loss of 27 percent of the vote someone who isn't even running. But with the write-ins going to Gore, there is little likelihood that any announced candidate will get near the numbers that are needed for an endorsement.
As such, Al Gore is actually helping Hillary Clinton. For so long as he remains a prospect, he blocks opportunities for other candidates to make their moves.