Barack Obama hit the ground in Virginia this week, with stops across the state suggesting that his campaign sees this once solidly red state as a battleground. 

At a state level, Virginia is riding a Democratic wave. Governor Tim Kaine and Senator Jim Webb took office in 2005 and 2006 respectively, and former governor Mark Warner is now running for Senate. Recent polls show him leading his opponent, Republican Jim Kilgore, by more than 20 percentage points. (Kaine, Webb and Warner have also all been named as potential running mates for Obama-- though Kaine is now on many short-lists for the spot). 

There are other promising numbers for Obama in Virginia: the number of young people registered to vote in that state has increased enormously. From January to August, more than 200,000 new voters have registered; more than two-thirds of them are under 35. Virginia's young population is increasing, and it has several large in-state universities, so this number is likely to keep growing as schools open and on-campus voter-registration drives begin. 

Of course, registration is only part of the picture. But if trends from 2006 continue, youth voting is on the up and up as well. Rock the Vote has named Virginia one of their four "Tier 1" states-- states in which they believe the youth vote will decide the election. Ohio, Colorado and New Mexico are the other three. According to CIRCLE, a civic participation group, the number of people under 30 who voted in the 2006 election increased by 14 percent over 2002. 

Following national trends, Virginia's youth are largely Democratic. In 2006, young voters were actually credited with handing Jim Webb his victory, voting for him in record numbers that were more than his margin of victory. Last week, a SurveyUSA poll of Virginia voters age 18-24 found Obama leading McCain 60 percent to 37 percent, while with voters of all ages, he trails  48 percent to 47 percent. 

It remains to be seen whether young voters could actually put Obama over the top in Virginia, which hasn't supported a Democrat for president since 1964. But, according to Larry Sabato, a professor at the University of Virginia, "it makes it a closer election." 

Comments (41)

1. MAASCH being a little pissy today?

   BTW, I heard an interesting one on POTUS '08 on XM this morning....

   how about....ALASKA coming into play?

   Despite the popularity of Palin, the scandals of Stevens and Company are brightening Dem chances in the 49th, and even if Obama just TRIES to campaign a little there (plenty of money for ads in a cheap Alaskan media market)...

   that makes McCain fight on territory he should have already locked up! With money...he DOESN'T have to waste!

   Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 08:51am

2. Posted by JOMAMMA at 08/22/2008 @ 09:08am

   Sure, happy to lay it out...

   barring total gaffes or looking like a deer in the headlights at the debates...

   I think Obama can pull it out, but TIGHTLY. Something on the order of a 5-7 electoral college vote lead and 3-5 million populars.

   McCain CAN win, but he'll need Obama to play a stupid campaign. The main thing going against him (as noted to you before) is....money.

   McDaddy will be stuck at 84 mill in public financing in two weeks. While Obama will have 100s of millions to work with (and as noted above) can force McCain to fight in "traditionally Red States" and spend money he doesn't have.

   The key for Obama is building confidence in the American people (ads help there for sure, the debates more so)...

   if he can do that, with a lousy economy, unpopular war, VERY unpopular GOP Prez, and 70%+ saying "we're on the wrong track"...he can win.

   But again, it'll be tight. Enough racist or pissy Dems to hurt him (aka FRANK), but not lose it for him. And maybe enough pissed-off RIGHTIES who figure an Obama Presidency will help them in 2012...while a McCain Presidency will assure the return of "Rockefellerism".

   Plus, I'm really hoping McCain picks Romney and there are a LOT of LVLIBERTY fundies out there scared of "Temple Mormons"....heheh

   Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 10:03am

3. Posted by JOMAMMA at 08/22/2008 @ 08:46am

   "the local Virginians with their long rich heritage of independent thinking and hard work history are being supplanted by more and more govt hacks of every level..that alone will turn any place blue."

   Yep, there's more and more government employees here everyday. Northern Virginia is a government colony with attendant hangers-on (lobbyists and lawyers) , just like the Maryland suburbs. And every one of them is guaranteed lifelong employment regardless of performance, and each has an abiding interest in seeing the government expand and suck up more and more of the wealth that the private sector produces, like ticks on a dog. And every one, of course, is a Democratic voter. Virginia may well go blue this year, unfortunately.

   Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 10:17am

4. My condolences to all the lefties who had their Olympics ruined by those two women's volleyballers, who after their gold medal win thanked the President for the job he has done and expressed their burning desire to start families. Not sure which you folks hated more, but it had make to make you regurgitate your kool-aid, if only for a minute or two.

   Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 10:24am

5. Ponti-Was your post about lefties and the Olympics supposed to make sense or did you just need to write about kool aid,again and the rest is just filler?

   Posted by i'm nobody at 08/22/2008 @ 10:30am

6. Posted by i'm nobody at 08/22/2008 @ 10:30am

   Well, IM, you KNOW I never pass up a chance to talk about lefties and kool-aid. I guess it all started when I read a history of Jim Jones and his left-wing religious cult out in San Francisco. I mean, the analogy of his cult church as a microcosm of modern day leftism is just so striking that it bears repeating.

   Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 10:39am

7. Mask

   I don't believe this election is going to be tight at all. Taking the figures from electoral-vote.com the race stands at 269-256 to Obama. On the face of it this looks bad, especially seeing as back in June Obama was leading 325-190. However if you omit the "barely" states (and therefore outside the margin of error) Obama has a 260-175 advantage. this is as high as it has ever been.

   I will be surprised if Obama gets less than 300 electoral votes. He'll take Virginia, Colorado and Nevada (27 votes bringing him up to 287) and be competitive in Florida, Ohio and North Dakota (a further 50 combined). He'll force McCain to spend money in Alaska and Georgia, states he should have been able to take for granted.

   There are still 74 days left till election day, plenty of time for McCain to have more "senior moments", such as forgetting how many houses he owns, of which country Putin was the president, whether Bin Laden is Sunni or Shia, which countries have borders with Iran or which countries ceased to exist in 1992. Plus Obama names his Veep pick this weekend, enabling the campaign to go negative while he stays above the fray.

   Posted by audacity at 08/22/2008 @ 10:40am

8. ponti-Actually,Jones has no relevance to the left in the slightest,but you already know that and just like writing about kool aid,but reality is that you guys drink the kool aid just as much as the far left does and are just as Orwellian.

   Posted by i'm nobody at 08/22/2008 @ 10:45am

9. Posted by audacity at 08/22/2008 @ 10:40am

   Forget about McCain's senior moments. What you need to worry about is Obama's ignorance of fundamental subjects and his inability to operate outside of a scripted environment. This guy is going to be a regular gaffe-o-matic once he gets into a debate environment where he has to think on his feet outside the adoring throng of MSM boosters. You're right it won't be close; McCain will take 300 electoral votes, easy.

   Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 10:53am

10. Posted by audacity at 08/22/2008 @ 10:40am

    Hey, do you think Obama is planning on visiting all 57 states again this fall?

    Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 11:01am

11. Posted by audacity at 08/22/2008 @ 10:40am

    No, I think that's a bit too optimistic.

    But, as I said, the money factor can't be ignored...nor the fact that folks like PONTI only make up 28% of the country now who think we're "on the right track" and want four more years.

    Obama starts in with someplace like North Carolina (which hasn't gone Dem since Jimmy Carter)...dumps TONS of cash into the media markets of Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, and Asheville...and he can win it. (The struggling Liddy Dole shows that).

    That ONE state taken from McCain (while keeping all others that Kerry won) gives Obama the Presidency...and that's just ONE example.

    But I think a 300 EC victory might be tough to pull off.

    Barring as you said some "senior moment"...which actually might be more like Dole falling off that platform.

    If McCain's knee were to give out on him, especially at the debate, and you had a photo and VIDEO of Obama rushing to help "the poor old man" up....McCain would lose by 10% or more.

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 11:09am

12. What about the possibility of a major cover up that is actually underway in Chicago, gets the coverage just before any of the 3 Presidential Debates? Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 11:42am

    You know how often that is stated Happy. Frank said that was supposed to happen during the Primaries. My God you sound like Frank..... You should go bathe.

    Everyone and their mother has been looking for something to stick and nothing has. The failed education initiative that you THINK, I stress think, will do damage, won't. If the Muslim thing didn't stick, "racist America hating minister", Bill Ayers, Doing drugs and the numerous other things you guys have thrown at him including the kitchen sink why do you think one failed initiative is going to. Failure is a part of coming up in the world EVERYONE fails at one point or another.

    If the American people were willing to vote for Bush, a President who SUNK multiple companies costing in the order of billions of dollars, why do you think they are any LESS likely to vote for someone who had one educational initiative that didn't go anywhere. It didn't hurt the state. It just underperformed.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 12:17pm

13. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 11:42am

    The man's in his 70s, HAPP...why is a knee blow-out so "remote"?

    And if you READ what I posted above, I only used that possibility to give Obama a BIG win...not to "save him".

    You're a "numbers and money guy". Look at the numbers and money. Obama drawing big NEW registered voters and he still holds a 80+ electoral college lead on McCain NOW (after the new "McCain is up 5 pts" poll from Zogby)....

    as for money? 84 million for McCain from Labor Day until November 4th.

    Obama?...likely 200 million. Money he can spend in places like NC, Louisiana, Kentucky, Virginia, even "Redder than red" states like Texas or even Alaska!

    And force McCain to protect what should be "already won territory".

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 12:34pm

14. "If the Muslim thing didn't stick, "racist America hating minister", Bill Ayers, Doing drugs and the numerous other things you guys have thrown at him including the kitchen sink why do you think one failed initiative is going to. Failure is a part of coming up in the world EVERYONE fails at one point or another."

    Shit, we haven't even BEGUN with that. I think we're going to be seeing quite a bit of archival footage of Obama's 20 year spiritual advisor in 527 campaign commercials this fall. "God Damn America" might make your little hearts flutter here at The Nation, we'll see how that plays across America.

    Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 12:49pm

15. Ponti-I've noticed that many of you on the right are getting off writing G-D America and believe that you are using his words to express your own view.

    Posted by i'm nobody at 08/22/2008 @ 12:54pm

16. Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 12:49pm

    That'd be cool, PONTI. Cuz it would mean a LOT of footage of McCain saying he "dislikes that kind of campaigning and has no association with it".

    After about the 5th or 6th denial...

    nobody would believe him anymore!

    And the 527s will have Swift Boated...

    the guy they were tryiing to HELP!

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 1:32pm

17. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 1:21pm

    HAPP, after weeding through the pap and fluff and "Nuh-huh!", I got-

    1. "More stuff on Bill Ayers might come out!!!!" (Which would mean Hillary "went easy" on Obama....you wanna bet on that?)

    2. You think McCain is a 3:1 favorite to win??? So by October 1, he should AT THE LEAST have a 10% lead on Obama....wanna bet on that first? (It's only 38 days away)

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 1:36pm

18. Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 1:32pm

    "That'd be cool, PONTI. Cuz it would mean a LOT of footage of McCain saying he "dislikes that kind of campaigning and has no association with it".

    After about the 5th or 6th denial...

    nobody would believe him anymore!

    And the 527s will have Swift Boated...

    the guy they were tryiing to HELP!"

    I think I'm finally beginning to understand what you folks mean by the term 'swift-boated':

    Telling the truth when the truth is oh-so-terribly inconvenient.

    And you think McCain will disassociate himself from that? Don't think so, and I don't know why he should.

    Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 2:04pm

19. I mean, MASK, which part of this information do you deny:

    a) that Jeremiah Wright urged his parishioners, including Obama, to sing 'God Damn America' b) that Obama attended Wright's church for over 20 years c) that Obama only dropped Wright when it was politically necesary to do so, i.e., during his campaign win d) that Obama described Wright as his 'closest spiritual adviser'.

    Which of these statements do you dispute, and if you dispute none, why do you think it's unfair to let the American people know these facts, especially when the MSM refuses to do so? And how do you define this as 'swift boating'?

    Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 2:10pm

20. Hey MASK, here's my alternative definition of your term 'swift boating':

    'Continually bringing up things in the public discourse that we liberals have consigned to the gaping maw of the memory holes where we put inconvenient facts'.

    Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 2:13pm

21. Posted by i'm nobody at 08/22/2008 @ 12:54pm

    "Ponti-I've noticed that many of you on the right are getting off writing G-D America and believe that you are using his words to express your own view."

    Well, you may speculate as you wish, IM, but I'll say one thing: I would never, ever vote for a politician that condoned this sort of speech by sitting through this kind of hate for over 20 years. Would you?

    Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 2:20pm

22. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 1:21pm

    Getting desperate Happy. You have the first black man in history running for President. He is already handicapped by single irrefutable fact. You then have the fact that he had to run one of the most contentious primaries ever with one of the best political families in the world who threw EVERYTHING they had at him. It was predicted before the primaries that he would come out hurting because of what Clinton tried. We haven't even entered the debate season yet. As from where I'm sitting in any normal election with all those handicaps working against him he should be down 20 points by now.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 2:23pm

23. a) that Jeremiah Wright urged his parishioners, including Obama, to sing 'God Damn America'

    Uhhh. This part is a complete lie. Show me where he urged his parishioners to sin that. Jesus you are just a wall for real information. Nothing gets through that thick skull.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 2:30pm

24. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 1:39pm

    I'm not chickening out, HAPP....HAPPY to take your 3:1 bet on McCain.

    I'm simply offering you a side-bet which would ALSO prove your point...

    October 1st....www.pollingreport.com average of Rasmussen, Zogby, Quinnipiac, Gallup, etc.

    McCain up over Obama by an average of 10%....you win.

    Stakes?....better than money or charity. Loser cannot criticize the new President for THREE MONTHS after the Inaugural....January 20-April 20.

    Deal? Or would you like a smaller number...like 7%?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 2:45pm

25. And you think McCain will disassociate himself from that? Don't think so, and I don't know why he should.----Posted by pontificus at 08/22/2008 @ 2:04pm

    Oh, yeah??????

    By Maeve Reston---LA Times April 24, 2008

    Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, on Wednesday urged GOP officials in North Carolina to remove a new television ad that brands Democratic candidate Barack Obama as "too extreme for North Carolina."

    "We asked them not to run it. I'm sending them an e-mail as we speak, asking them to take it down," the Arizona senator told reporters aboard his campaign bus as he traveled to a town-hall-style meeting in Inez, where President Johnson launched his 1964 campaign on poverty.

    "I don't know why they do it, and obviously I don't control them. But I'm making it very clear, as I have a couple of times in the past, that there's no place for that kind of campaigning – and the American people don't want it, period," McCain said.

    McCain said he had not seen the North Carolina ad, which states that Obama is too extreme and shows footage of the Illinois senator's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., shouting: "Not God bless America, God damn America." In a March speech on race, Obama condemned Wright's controversial remarks, but said the pastor was part of his life and he could not disown him.

    "I hope that I don't see [it]," McCain said of the ad. "I had enough of a description of it to know that that's the kind of campaigning that I have told the American people we're not going to do."

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 2:48pm

26. Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 2:30pm

    Fortunately, though they THINK that stuff plays "outside" of their Hard Right base....it doesn't.

    They seem to forget that Obama still beat Hillary with Rev. Wright out there (Bill Ayers too) and actually the fact they've come up with nothing NEW...

    is quite encouraging!

    heheh

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 2:50pm

27. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 1:21pm

    Sure we can give it to the Nation. You must be in a good mood if your willing to donate to a leftist blog.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 2:55pm

28. Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 2:48pm

    Is he trying to return to running a clean campaign?

    Or is he just playing it up for the cameras?

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 2:57pm

29. Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 2:57pm |

    The latter. He's trying to keep SOME semblance of the old "Maverick John" that the Indies and Moderates liked from 2000.

    While PONTI and the boys may want to swamp the airwaves with "Obama once shot a man in Reno, just to watch him die" and "Barack was once tested by a census taker...he ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti!"....

    Maverick John, who may LIKE any help he can get, will HAVE to denounce them or look like a hypocrite for all his "clean campaign" and campaign finance reform reputation.

    If he does it more than a few time, nobody's going to believe him...and that means his credibility is shot...and that means he retires to Scottsdale soon.

    It would be hilariously ironic if one of the key things that HURTS McCain this fall....is his own slimey base!

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 3:03pm

30. BTW, PONTI...

    Google up "McCain Swift Boat Kerry".

    He apparently doesn't share your love of the "truth".

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 3:04pm

31. The thing that the Rpeublicans on this site are ignoring and relying on too much is their thinking "Oh he should be up because you liberals said so." No that's not at all true. Everyone knew that McCain was the only one who could put up a decent fight because he has his now defunct status as a "maverick". We knew he would put up a fight anyone who was semi-intelligent knew Obama wasn't going to be 20 points. We knew it would be close. Any other politician who had had all of these charges come out against him would be 20 points behind right now. He's not. He's managing to hold his ground with tons and tons of handicaps working against him.

    He's Muslim. He supports the terrorists. He's friends with a former terrorist, who has been repeatedly wrongly misquoted by the way. His wife hates America. He hates America. He's the most liberal person in the Senate. He want's to raise taxes and destroy the economy. He hates the troops. He has no experience. He has no policies. He cares more for Europe than America Let's not forget the biggest one, He's black

    All of these things being hammered into the American people constantly, whether they are true or not people still believe it, yet he's still not behind. The polls fluctuate constantly but in his worst month since this race began in the primaries, he's still ahead. He keeps slipping out of this pattern of dirty politics. Any other politician would be badly behind right now when facing a "maverick","war hero", God fearing, troop loving, 30 year veteran of the Senate. But no. The "empty suit" is still ahead.

    Continued*

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 3:12pm

32. Everyone has been saying since he caught up to Hillary in Iowa, that the voters would realize that he is nothing but an empty suit and that none of them would vote for him. So far in the more than year that this election season has been going on for none of their predictions about him have been right. He's still up. He still hasn't been revealed as anything menacing. And with everything working to stop him he hasn't fallen behind.

    McCain has a media that is partial to him no matter how much the Republicans try to play it up. Obama gets lies repeated about him repeatedly in the media. The Muslim thing was drilled so much it's ridiculous and media sources never asked how is it possible that he is a secret Muslim and a racist Christian at the same time. McCain has been left alone. No one in the media is point to his disconnectedness from the America people by being obscenely wealthy. No one is point to the veterans who are blaming him for the deaths of Americans on the USS Forrestall. No one is point out his cheating on his wife. No one is pointing out his potential lack of ability to be President for virtue of the fact that he has PTSD. No one is pointing to his potentially flawed health that we aren't allowed to know about. They are avoiding talking about him. And instead just keep repeating the lies told about Obama. McCain has every advantage, yet he can't pull ahead. So keep repeating this lie that Obama is falling behind. It hasn't proven true since Iowa.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 3:18pm

33. These are facts the likes of which Happy, LVL and Ponti HAVE to ignore. Because to acknowledge that for a junior Senator, who's an empty suit running against two of the potentially best politicians the Democrat's and Republicans have to offer in this season working with all the handicaps he is working with and a primary season that should have been a disaster he is looking like the teflon man right now. He looks like he could talk his way out of a sunburn. But you will NEVER hear them acknowledge that. Because to acknowledge that is to admit a superiority in this particular candidate and none of them can ever say ANYTHING positive about the enemy.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 3:28pm

34. Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 3:12pm

    It is funny the CONTRADICTIONS they put up as attacks on Obama...

    like "He has no policies"...BUT "He's going to try to enact the most socialist agenda in years".....huh?!???!?

    or "He wants to invade or nuke Pakistan".....BUT "He'll be an appeaser and surrender to the terrorists!"

    or "He's a Muslim"....BUT "He attended a radical Christian church for 20 years!"

    Apparently Barack is that most elusive of chimeras...a "radical Christian Muslim!"...LOL

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 3:52pm

35. The thing is though type of stuff usually works. Your assertions don't have to be true, they just have to be repeated enough. Yet as much as these things are repeated. Still isn't getting good traction. They have been repeated for months now and nothing as become of it.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 4:39pm

36. The problem they have is that every attack used against him he uses as an opportunity. The Reverend Wright controversy became a launching point for a rousing speech on race relations. Them calling him elitist became a launching point for attacking the fact that McCain and Hillary are richer than he has ever even thought about being. McCain attacking him for not going to Iraq became the launching point for one of the most successful world tours ever. Whether the Republicans are willing to admit it or not I have to say the guy is a great opportunist and sees the landscape very well.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/22/2008 @ 4:42pm

37. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 5:33pm

    Not taking my side bet?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 6:39pm

38. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/22/2008 @ 7:49pm

    I took yours.

    You SEEM very confident in Maverick John.

    Name your figure, then? Don't think he'll be up by 10% by October 1st...not even 7%? What then?

    Or is your confidence lacking???

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 8:52pm

39. Posted by 2HAPPY at 08/23/2008 @ 12:36am

    I like my odds where they are.

    Posted by Cccomfo1 at 08/23/2008 @ 01:06am

40. It would be hilariously ironic if one of the key things that HURTS McCain this fall....is his own slimey base!

    Posted by Maskdelta at 08/22/2008 @ 3:03pm

    you're right. budweiser is kinda slimy.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/23/2008 @ 02:03am

41. i think this is the most nonsensical thread i've ever read here.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 08/23/2008 @ 02:05am