Youth turnout in Pennsylvania couldn't give Barack Obama the edge he needed last week. Obama himself said in a radio interview Wednesday that, "really, if we had a demographic problem in Pennsylvania, it was that it's an older state than a lot of states."

But the youth vote isn't monolithic-- and that showed in Pennsylvania. Clinton beat Obama 52-48% among young whites, according to CNN exit polling. The Politico's Ben Smith outlines several possible reasons for this, among them racial and cultural politics following the scandals over Obama's pastor and the infamous "bitter comment." Counties with universities remained Obama strongholds, pointing to a possible student/non-student divide.

This result sent a signal to both campaigns that they must engage non-college youth if they want to count on their support in the general election.

It's clear Obama has youth momentum behind him. A Harvard University poll released last week of students and non-students ages 18-24 showed that 70% favor Obama, while only 30% favor Clinton. The poll also has Obama beating McCain by a solid 20 point margin, while Clinton only wins by five. But his apparent failings with non-college whites in places like New Hampshire and Pennsylvania is a weakness, as is Clinton's slim edge over McCain. This is not to say that young, non-college Democrats who voted in the primaries could switch to McCain come November, but they might not turn out at the rate Democrats will need.

Both campaigns need to do as much as possible to energize non-college young voters. Obama's campaign launched a major nation-wide voter registration effort Friday, which is a good start. If that kind of outreach continues all the way to November, either campaign could ride the youth wave to its fullest potential.

Comments (16)

1. In my Environmental Conservation class, I give my students extra credit for writing their legislators. Anything to get them involved in the political process.

   Posted by leftofcenter at 04/27/2008 @ 3:36pm

2. Maybe because non college young adults have to live in the real world and thus don't buy platitudes and generalizations like Obama relies upon.

   I think Obama will have great difficulty making a serious penetration into this segment of voters.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008 @ 7:26pm

3. Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008

   Or maybe it's because non-college educated young adults haven't developed the ability to see through the political spin yet that you get in poli-sci classes so they will believe anything the media tells them.

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 04/27/2008 @ 7:45pm

4. Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008

   I love that you scoff at those who try to get a college education. Shows a lot about your mentality that college education you is such a negative thing.

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 04/27/2008 @ 7:50pm

5. I love that you scoff at those who try to get a college education. Shows a lot about your mentality that college education you is such a negative thing.

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 04/27/2008

   You are completely mistaken. I do not scoff at college education. I have multiple degrees myself and all of my children have college degrees (2 with advanced degrees).

   I was referring to the fact that young adults already bearing the responsibilities of paying rent/mortgage, supporting children, and a myriad of other obligations that most college students are not faced with.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008 @ 8:39pm

6. Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008

   I have those same obligation it has caused me to look even more closely at many things Repubs want to do and so far all I have seen is lets make the rich richer and the poor poorer. Let's give huge tax breaks to the rich and we will then use a fancy term like trickle down economics letting them forget that it didn't work during Reagan just like it isn't working now.

   Posted by Cccomfo1 at 04/27/2008 @ 8:57pm

7. or maybe it's because uneducated people are easiest to manipulate.

   Sunday, April 27, 2008 9:44:25 PM

   Posted by frosty zoom at 04/27/2008 @ 9:40pm

8. You are a bright young person so don't respond in a way that seems as if you are so easily manipulated by leftist spin. Did you think that Bush's tax cut that reduced the tax burden on the lowest bracket by 50% was for the rich? How about the fact that the top 1% are paying a larger share of the tax burden under Bush than under Clinton? Tell me, who creates jobs in this country? It is people with either the disposable capital or the means of accessing it? Whether it is a small business or a large corporation. It takes money to create jobs. Without increased access to capital, no jobs are created unless you want the government to run everything. Under Reagan (whom I still believe to be one of the top 3 presidents in our history) 20 million new jobs were created during the Reagan presidency (U.S. Statistical Abstract)

   -Of these 20 million new jobs: -The average hourly wage was $10/hr. -46.1% were over $28,048/yr, and another 46.2% were from $7,012-$28,048/yr, while only 6% were under $7,012/yr. -In 1981, the beginning of Reagan's presidency, the top 5% of wage earners paid 35% of federal income taxes, while the bottom 50% paid 8%. By 1988, the end of Reagan's presidency, the top 5% paid 46% of the federal taxes, while the bottom 50% paid 6% (Joint Economic Committee, 1990)

   -Inflation went down during Reagan's time in office. In 1980 the CPI (Consumer Price Index) was 13.5, and in 1984 it dropped to 4.3, and eventually to 4.1 by 1988. (Economic Report of the President, January, 1993)

   -Middle class families earning between $20,000-$50,000/year had a 28% growth in net worth during Reagan's time in office (National Review, April 18, 1994)

   http://www.geocities.com/Colosseum/Midfield/3110/reagan.html

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008 @ 9:55pm

9. Under Reagan (whom I still believe to be one of the top 3 presidents in our history)

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   i'm sure the iranians agree.

   well, maybe saddam.

   damn! that reagan. what a fun loving dude.

   Sunday, April 27, 2008 10:03:51 PM

   Posted by frosty zoom at 04/27/2008 @ 9:59pm

10. Posted by frosty zoom at 04/27/2008

    You're becoming like a parrot of all things absurd -

    I'm beginning to be glad you don't live in the US.

    Posted by lvliberty1 at 04/27/2008 @ 10:02pm

11. I'm beginning to be glad you don't live in the US.

    Posted by lvliberty1

    yeah, i might be a commie.

    Sunday, April 27, 2008 10:12:10 PM

    Posted by frosty zoom at 04/27/2008 @ 10:08pm

12. yup...they are authoring on a Mac I think. Safari on a Vista PC and I get the stretchy box. Lemme try a preview. Well that still does nothing notable. Now I wonder about html links http://tinyurl.com/65cqeh

    Posted by leftofcenter at 04/27/2008 @ 11:06pm

13. Obama insensitive? That's too mild. He's rich now, not a "bitter" working guy naymore.

    --------------- McCain calls Obama insensitive to poor people

    Email this Story

    Apr 27, 4:59 PM (ET)

    By RASHA MADKOUR

    (AP) Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., speaks to reporters during a news... Full Image

    CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) - Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Sunday called Democratic rival Barack Obama insensitive to poor people and out of touch on economic issues.

    The GOP nominee-in-waiting rapped his Democratic rival for opposing his idea to suspend the tax on fuel during the summer, a proposal that McCain believes will particularly help low-income people who usually have older cars that guzzle more gas.

    Posted by HelenDAO at 04/28/2008 @ 02:13am

14. "Youth turnout in Pennsylvania couldn't give Barack Obama the edge he needed last week....But the youth vote isn't monolithic."

    Yep, as I said when you (Ms Currier) first claimed that.

    Sorry, but the "power" of the "youth vote" doesn't seem to exist. If it's not "monolithic", then it simply gets diffused into both the GOP and Dem vote bloc and is a "wash" electorally.

    Posted by Mask at 04/28/2008 @ 09:02am

15. It's all about basing choices on their access to information. Most older people limit their access to new information via relying on: the tried and true - in the rut - blinder - nose to the grind stone - bottom line - least hoped - pessimistic - philosophy. Whereas most youth tend to have information culled from a - nothing to loose - short attention span - immortal - pie in the sky - optimistic - hopeful - philosophy. Unless one corrupts the other... Corrections to old sins are born from those that contain ageless honesty and courage.

    Posted by hsuBfools at 04/28/2008 @ 1:48pm

16. "Youth turnout in Pennsylvania couldn't give Barack Obama the edge he needed last week....But the youth vote isn't monolithic."

    Posted by Mask at 04/28/2008

    But then again why were Obama's strong polling areas last to record? Knowing there weren't a paper verification in any case, why did it take so long to (mis?)count... Even with all that time, and less than 2%, Obama's numbers still took a 10+ lead down to a 9.2. Wonder what it would've looked like if his strongest precincts were the first to be counted... and reflecting the exit polls.

    (Yeah yeah yeah, $50 donation wasn't a problem.)

    Posted by hsuBfools at 04/28/2008 @ 2:12pm