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Election Eve Polling: Still Looks Good for Obama | The Nation

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Greg Mitchell

Greg Mitchell

Media, politics and culture.

Election Eve Polling: Still Looks Good for Obama

I’ve been closely monitoring, and posting, final poll results on the race for the White House in the final forty-eight hours. See my report this morning, and now there’s this:

No new column from Nate Silver tonight but he has raised odds on Obama win to 91 percent and adds two important tweets: "There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3 percent in popular vote." And: "Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal."

Final Washington Post/ABC poll puts Obama in front by 3 percent, his highest ever—and in line with Pew, which also has him at 50 percent. (Peggy Noonan don’t mind, she’s just counting the lawn signs as her own survey, which have her feeling “vibrations” for Romney, she wrote today. Drink!) Poll shows Obama gains among independents and whites.

Gallup has now posted at their site the “leaked” numbers that emerged this morning. Remember, Gallup had gone silent since Sandy hit, leaving things with Romney up 5 percent or more. Today, however, they confirm Obama made gains in past week to only be 1 percent down among likely voters and ahead by 3 percent with registered voters. His approval has risen to 52 percent so it’s hard to believe he will be turned out with that tide turned, so to speak.

Final Reuters-Ipsos also just out—2 percent lead for Obama.

Gallup still sketchy on some details, but does report that despite all the complaints about the lies, brutal attacks and ads, 58 percent say they approve of the way Obama has conducted his campaign and 54 percent say the same about Romney. Though maybe just the usual partisanship.

Note: The first e-book on Obama-Romney race has been published—and it’s mine! Covers contest right up to yesterday. Or wait for update on Wednesday.

The Obama team is confident going into the election, George Zornick reports.

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