What do the CIA, the Pentagon and the UN have in common? They share a prescient view of the world’s greatest dangers and their unheralded agreement on key issues facing the planet has received far too little attention in the media.
Since 2000, all three institutions have produced a number of valuable reports arguing that so-called soft issues like poverty, disease and climate change are endangering global stability and the future of the United States.
This rising consensus should compel US policy-makers to concede a most basic point–we need a global development agenda. It isn’t a soft-headed, idealistic thing either. Unless we confront issues like poverty and gender inequality, the world will become more destabilized, increasingly violent and less secure.
In December 2000, the CIA’s Global Trends 2015 report warned of instability brought on by a shortage of drinking water–“the single most contested resource on the planet,” as Time.com described the CIA’s findings. The report also warned that nation-states would soon disintegrate, “non-state actors” like Osama bin Laden would emerge as greater threats, that populations would increase by one billion people by 2015, and that HIV/AIDS would represent a major security issue in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the former Soviet Republics. (Another CIA report issued that same year, “Global Infectious Disease Threat,” estimated that by 2020 over half of all deaths from infectious disease in the developing world will be caused by AIDS, imperiling government stability, food production, health services, and even nuclear/weapons security in places.)
Some cities in the Arab world would become “impossibly overpopulated hubs of discontent, dramatically under-serviced by such basic infrastructure as drinking water and sewage,” as Time.com described the CIA’s Global Trends 2015 report’s conclusions. “Their population is likely to be young, hungry, sick, disillusioned and very, very angry.”
The CIA’s report argued that we should increase foreign aid and investment, along the lines of the Marshall Plan, to close a growing divide between rich and poor, which would, in turn, reduce threats to the United States.