If the impending invasion of Iraq goes quickly and Saddam Hussein is overthrown, North Korea will soon enter American gun sights. For the past three months Pyongyang has sought to get Washington’s attention with a series of provocative moves, but the Bush Administration has so far succeeded in dragging its feet and delaying a serious response. The stage is thus set for Bush to deal with the “axis of evil” serially: first Iraq, then North Korea, then Iran. Unfortunately for Bush, however, he also faces a crisis with our South Korean ally, now led by people who seek to bring the destiny of their country under their own control.
In December the South Korean people broke decisively with the existing political system, and the elites within it who date back to the Korean War, by electing Roh Moo Hyun. Roh is a lawyer who came up the hard way: Born into a dirt-poor family that could not afford college, he schooled himself in the law and passed Korea’s notoriously difficult bar exam on his first try. In the 1980s, during the Reagan-supported dictatorship of Chun Doo Hwan, Roh defended many human rights and labor activists at the risk of his own career and life. Amazingly, for presumably anti-Communist South Korea, his wife comes from a family that was blacklisted for decades: Her father was a member of the South Korean Labor Party in the late 1940s, a Communist party outlawed by the US Military Government that ruled the South then; he was arrested for allegedly collaborating with the North during the Korean War, and died in jail. Roh’s sharpest break with the past, though, is his constituency. His election was boosted mightily by a burgeoning movement among younger Koreans against the seemingly endless American military presence in the South, conducted in successive, truly massive and dignified candlelight processions along the grand boulevard in front of the US Embassy in Seoul. Routinely labeled “anti-American” by the media, these demonstrations were in fact anti-Bush–like so many others.
Since his election Roh has made clear his dissatisfaction with Bush’s policies toward the North and his desire to solve the nuclear problem through dialogue; as a consequence, initial meetings between his advance team and Bush officials last month did not go well. According to Howard French of the New York Times, insiders termed the visit “a near disaster.” One American participant told the Times, “I sense major trouble ahead in the relationship. The impression I got is that for Roh and his generation, the ultimate goal is to reunite their country and get us off the peninsula.” Korean participants in these meetings, however, thought this American reaction arose from a particular exchange: When asked what would happen if the United States unilaterally took out the North’s nuclear facilities without consulting Seoul, one of Roh’s closest advisers responded, “It would mean the end of the alliance.” And why not? What sovereign country allows a global bully to go around starting wars when its people would be the primary victims?