While the blogosphere and the mainstream pundits obsessed in unison–and don’t they always obsess in unison?–over the increasingly irrelevant bleatings of the Christian-right sheep at this weekend’s Values Voter Summit in Washington, more than twice as many Republicans were gathered in steamy Orlando, Florida, for their “Presidency IV” weekend. These were the people who, along with their strikingly similar counterparts in Colorado and Virginia and Missouri and Ohio, just might determine what happens in November 2008. And they are not the Republicans of 2004. The swarm of business-casual Republicans in Orlando looked like the future of their party–a future that will almost surely swing the GOP back toward the past, in the moderately conservative, business-first, ignore-the-wackos direction of Eisenhower, Rockefeller and Ford.
The crowd here was short on fundamentalists and long on nattily dressed, well-behaved, martini-sipping corporate Republicans–predominantly white ones, of course, but with more sizable black and Hispanic contingents than any other state’s Republican Party can boast (so far). It’s 1956 all over again. The “business end” of the Republican Party has been strongly on the ascent in Florida after years of embarrassing right-wing excesses from Jeb Bush and the right-wing Christian loonies who briefly took over the state legislature. These unseemly embarrassments have been shoved out of power as the relatively moderate and wildly popular Governor Charlie Crist and his cohorts have taken command, elbowing the Katharine Harrises of Florida quietly and decisively back to the margins of the GOP, where they once belonged. Left behind, if you will.
Too many Democrats are clinging to the sunny notion that they will get to run against the Party of Bush again in 2008–this time, with Bushism thoroughly discredited in the mainstream. Under that scenario, a stable, robotic, small-ball centrist like Hillary Clinton looks like a sure winner. What the sanguine Dems are ignoring is that Bushism and neoconservative ideology are also being hastily discarded by rank-and-file Republicans and their emerging leadership, especially at the state levels. Crist’s mantra is “problem-solving, not politics,” and it is a philosophy that has risen rapidly to pre-eminence here–and sounds a whole lot like Hillary’s own idea of governance. The only reference to Bush–Jeb or George W.–that I heard all weekend was from a South Florida nurse I ran into at the Black Republicans’ cocktail hour. “Oh Lord,” she said, with genuine relief, taking a swig of white wine. “Thank goodness that’s over.”
Like most of the Republicans I chatted with, what she’s looking for this year is–above all–a non-Bushian level of competence. It’s that mantle, above all, that the Republican candidates are competing for in states like Florida. And in their different ways, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and the vastly underrated Mike Huckabee–the only real contenders now–have some appeal to these folks on that crucial score. And judging by that same test, the big loser of the weekend was that former great white hope of “common-sense conservatism,” Ol’ Fred Thompson. His campaign has been an uproarious farce from the git-go, but this weekend in Florida, he just might have managed to shoot himself–and any chance he might have had of becoming President–in the foot, once and for all. Thompson’s strategy hinged on winning South Carolina and Florida. After this weekend, he’d better make a beeline for Charleston and stay there awhile.