I’ve been monitoring here the past few days the daily Gallup tracking polls, which have shown no apparent “bump” for Romney in the polls since the RNC started and concluded. A Reuters-Ipsos poll found a one-day bump, then Obama took the lead again. The only poll that showed any real bump, naturally, was Rasmussen. But some partisans, and pundits, have warned that this bounce would show up when the full week’s impact was measured.
Well, Gallup just did that this morning, looking at its polls from just the past three days, and guess what: still no bounce (and now, to counter any spike, the DNC is almost here). In the key survey of whether voters were now more or less likely to vote for Romney he showed little progress, if any. Some 40 percent said they were now more likely to vote for Romney, which sounds okay—until you see that 38 percent said quite the opposite. And he fared no better with the all-important “independents.”
Nate Silver at the New York Times had earlier observed that the historical norm—and what Romney needed to show—was about a 4 percent gain.
And: “Romney’s acceptance speech this year scored low by comparison to previous convention speeches going back to 1996. Thirty-eight percent of Americans rated the speech as excellent or good, while 16% rated it as poor or terrible. The 38% who rated the speech as excellent or good is the lowest rating of any of the eight speeches Gallup has tested since Bob Dole’s GOP acceptance speech in 1996.”
Also: self-reported TV viewership of convention was second-lowest ever.
One is tempted to say, So if Obama has a great week now, and gets his own bounce, he may open up his first very clear lead. But as I’ve estimated before, there may be only about eighteen truly undecided voters out there, so don’t expect much. Unless the president goes on a certain TV show—and gets the “Colbert bounce.”