Abstract

Cedar or Sapling?

This article focuses on the social forces within Lebanon and how they may influence the future of the country. Ever since a massive bomb killed former prime minister Rafik Hariri on February 14, downtown Beirut has evolved into a solemn carnival, halfway between a wake and a rave. Could this be the Arab world's first bloodless coup--a velvet intifada? On March 8, half a million demonstrators--mainly Shiites--showed up for a counterdemonstration that made the cedar revolution look like a sapling. The sheer numbers showed wide support for Syria among Shiites, but also the depth of support for Hezbollah, the Syria-backed guerrilla group and political party. "The question now becomes, In Lebanon, can a group of people come up with a vision that allows people to rise above their confession and their political differences?" says D. Roman Kulchitsky, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.