Abstract

Hope and Reality in Iraq

The article analyzes the impact of democratic elections on politics and government in Iraq. However large the turnout may have been (and immediately, especially in the European press, questions were raised about initial rosy estimates) the fact that so many Iraqis risked the dangers they did says something profound about most people's desire to decide for themselves how they are to be governed. Yet it would be a mistake to assume that the elections mark a major change in Iraq's fortunes. For one thing, the participation of Sunnis, who make up about 20 percent of the population, was extremely low, causing the leading Sunni clerics to declare that the election "lacks legitimacy." Moreover, as long as the US occupation continues, the insurgency is likely to continue--possibly even to grow. Even with no party on the ballot campaigning unambiguously for the Americans' departure, many Iraqis, despite their fears about safety, made it clear that they viewed the election as one way to accelerate a US withdrawal. At each step of the way in Iraq--from the initial invasion, to the disbanding of the Iraqi Army, to the botched and corrupt reconstruction process, to the hastily called election--the Bush Administration has made the situation worse. The Iraqis should be making plans for what to do after regaining their sovereignty; the Americans should be making plans to go home.