Abstract

Steve Cobble & Joe Velasquez

The article focuses on the Democratic Party in the United States, following its defeat in the 2004 elections. It has frequently been pointed out that candidate John Kerry would be President if fewer than 70,000 Ohioans had switched their votes. What has not been noticed is that a similar number holds for the "Cactus Corner"--if 64,000 voters had switched their votes in three Southwestern states, Kerry would have won another nineteen electoral votes, enough to win the White House. Kerry trailed President George W. Bush by only about 6,000 votes in New Mexico, by only 21,500 in Nevada and by fewer than 100,000 in Colorado. The future for Democrats is brighter in the Southwest than in those deep red states below the Mason-Dixon line. Consider this: Besides Florida, the closest former Confederate states showed Bush winning by nine percentage points. On the other hand, of the six states which Bush won by five points or less, two of them were in the Midwest, one is Florida and three were in the Southwest. What do these Southwestern states have in common? A large and growing Latino constituency, plus a strong overall environmental sensibility that is usually overlooked by Democrats and steamrolled by Republicans.