Abstract

Two, Three, Many Iraqs

With the United States setbacks and scandals in Iraq, you would think the White House would abandon President George W. Bush's aggressive, unilateralist military policy and seek to avoid new confrontations abroad. But there are signs that the Administration is girding up for confrontations in three more places--Iran, North Korea and Taiwan/China. Although the White House is in no position to order an invasion of Iran, given the continuing disorder in Iraq, it could launch airstrikes against suspect nuclear facilities in Iran, thus allowing Bush to portray himself, again, as the unflinching defender of American security. The long-building North Korean crisis began in October 2002, when the United States revealed that Pyongyang had acquired centrifuge technology from Pakistan and had begun to enrich uranium for the manufacture of nuclear weapons. Chinese leaders have recently issued fresh threats of military action, and while Beijing is thought to lack the capacity to invade and occupy Taiwan, it does possess hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles capable of striking the island. The United States and China have, of course, clashed over Taiwan on many occasions, but now the United States appears to be offering Taiwan a credible route to independence. We see that the White House is not inhibited by the current turmoil in Iraq from moving into even more dangerous waters.