Abstract

Dean's Fifty-State Strategy

The author speculates about which of the Democratic presidential candidates will emerge in the course of the primaries as the main contender for Howard Dean's current frontrunner position. Rather than marathons, nomination contests are actually fifty state relay races. Momentum surely matters, but not as much as backing from local politicos and activists who take responsibility for winning state after state for the candidate who has secured their support. Former California Governor Jerry Brown, who made three runs for the Democratic presidential nomination in three different decades, argues that it is this "state-by-state combat" that decides nominations, not showboating wins in Iowa or New Hampshire. Dean and his aides have developed a fitly-state strategy designed to beat the field early and prevail later against the one or two who survive to challenge him in the big-state primaries of late February and early March, when most of the 4,322 delegates will be selected. One Democratic National Committee insider summed things up by saying, "The assumption now is that Dean will come out of Iowa and New Hampshire strong. That's not the question anymore. The question is, Who will emerge as the anti-Dean, the candidate who becomes the alternative and then fights it out with Dean in the later primaries?" All of Dean's major opponents are jockeying to be that man. But the Dean camp's secret weapon is human, not financial. Most of his backers have been drawn to his campaign because they share his opposition to the Iraq war and buy his argument that Bush will only be beaten by a candidate who boldly challenges his agenda.