Abstract

The Activist Primary

The author discusses developments in the race for the U.S. Democratic presidential nomination, and claims that primary voters are likely to elect an activist candidate eager to take on President George W. Bush. It is a measure of their belief that Bush, who seemed so invincible in March of 2003, will be vulnerable in November of 2004 that the candidates are now attacking one another almost as frequently as they condemn the President's international and domestic policies. Most of the potshots are aimed at Howard Dean, who, with one year to go before the election, has positioned himself as the candidate who most wants to get in the ring with Bush. Dean's opposition to the war in Iraq won the once-obscure candidate the attention of Democratic activists, but it is his unrelenting assault on the President, his aides and their policies that has won him front-runner status as the start of the caucus and primary season approaches. Wesley Clark and Dick Gephardt are emerging as the candidates best positioned to threaten Dean. Unlike 1992, when Democrats went looking for a candidate with the right style to take on the first George Bush, the 2004 contest is not shaping up as what former Clinton aide Dick Morris calls an "image primary." Rather, the fast-and-furious competition that will begin in mid-January appears set to be an "activist primary," in which voters are looking for a candidate who mirrors their fierce disdain for Bush and their faith that only a Democratic Party that clearly distinguishes itself from the GOP will have a chance to energize the base that is needed to win.